DraftKings’ World Cup Data Shows A Split Between Bettors And Prediction Traders
Roundup: Pennsylvania lawmaker wants to ban betting on school grounds; Americans oppose political betting, per Politico poll; Bundesliga partners with Polymarket.
DraftKings sent along a list of the most-bet World Cup matches so far, and the most traded ones. And the differences between DraftKings Sportsbook and DraftKings Predictions are pretty interesting!
Here they are, in order of handle/volume:
Sportsbook
June 12: USA vs. Paraguay
June 19: USA vs. Australia
June 13: Brazil vs. Morocco
June 18: Mexico vs. South Korea
June 20: Germany vs. Ivory Coast
Predictions
June 20: Germany vs. Ivory Coast
June 18: Mexico vs. South Korea
June 12: USA vs. Paraguay
June 21: New Zealand vs. Egypt
June 19: Türkiye vs. Paraguay
Three matches appear on both lists. Despite the similarity, the lists — and their order — illuminate a bit of the difference between how people use the two products.
The sportsbook list is mostly what we would expect: The two American matches and three fairly high-profile matches.
Things get interesting when we get to the Predictions list, where the USA-Australia game didn’t make the cut, and USA-Paraguay wasn’t No. 1. But it’s also maybe what we would expect: Closer games seem to matter more for trading vs. sportsbooks.
Germany-Ivory Coast is the poster child for a popular market: A favorite down early and making a late rally lent itself to trading opportunities. Germany won with a goal in stoppage time.
The difference appears to be that sportsbook betting is more driven by fan interest, while prediction market volume is more sensitive to tradability: close games, volatile prices and markets where users have reason to enter and exit.
For what it’s worth: Kalshi’s list has three of the same matches as Predictions, and follows the same trend: close games. But no American matches! Here are the top five “winner” markets:
All of it adds up to this:
Sportsbooks can definitely learn something from the idea that close games are more interesting to users when the product differs.
Prediction markets can be missing something with the highest-profile sporting events.
Or you just offer both.
FanDuel Drops Episode 4 of Series Highlighting Special Olympics Athletes
Sponsor’s message: FanDuel is an Official Partner of the 2026 Special Olympics USA Games, with the partnership reflecting the company’s commitment to creating more inclusive opportunities to participate in sports. To help amplify the stories of athletes preparing for the competition, FanDuel created a short-form content series spotlighting athletes on their journeys to the 2026 USA Games.
This week’s episode features William Blakey, a powerlifting athlete representing Virginia, as he shares how he found Special Olympics and the special relationship with his coaches. Watch the full episode below:
Gambling news roundup
🚨The important stuff
DraftKings could top $1 billion from prediction markets by 2030: analysts (SBC Americas): “Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin wrote in a note published June 19 that they believe, based on early activity and industry comparisons, that the prediction markets opportunity could be worth in the region of $1bn by 2030, assuming that DraftKings Predictions can attain 20% to 30% market share across its active states.”
Poll: Americans draw a new line in the betting bonanza sweeping over Wall Street — politics (Politico): “Results from The POLITICO Poll show that a large group of U.S. adults doesn’t believe wagering on political events like what President Donald Trump will say, who he will pardon, and the outcome of the 2028 presidential election should be legal.”
Michelle Cohen guides and defends Ifrah Law’s iGaming clients when government agencies launch enforcement actions alleging unlawful gambling, advertising, and marketing practices. Michelle has decades of experience advising and defending organizations facing these and other claims related to consumer protections and privacy.
When faced with cease-and-desist orders and costly litigations, Michelle’s clients count on her credibility, diligence, and deep knowledge of iGaming advertising and consumer protection laws to successfully negotiate with Federal Trade Commission (FTC) officials, state attorneys general, and gaming regulators.
Read More: Cohen on iGaming Marketing: Five Critical Steps When Regulators Call
🏛️ Legislative and regulatory updates
Pennsylvania Rep Seeking to Block All Sports Betting, iGaming on School Grounds (Sports Betting Dime): “Rep. Jason Ortitay (R-46) recently introduced HB 2631, which will require licensed online sports betting and iGaming operators to geofence all Pennsylvania elementary through high school property from any online gaming activity.”
“Our schools should be a place for learning, not a place to lose your future one bet at a time,” Ortitay said in a press release. “The technology to stop this already exists. We are simply asking the operators who profit from gaming to make sure their products cannot be used by a child sitting in a classroom. This is common sense, and it is long overdue.”
🔮 Prediction markets
Relevent Secures First Bundesliga Sponsorship in U.S. by Partnering with Polymarket (press release): Relevent, the leading multinational media, sports and entertainment group, has today announced Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction marketplace, as the Bundesliga’s Official Prediction Market Partner in the U.S.
Beginning with the 2026-27 season kicking off in August, Polymarket users will be able to trade event contracts on the most anticipated Bundesliga match outcomes, furthering their interest and investment in the league, even from afar.
The multi-year partnership includes digital and social content focused on match predictions and markets. Polymarket US will receive exclusive rights to use Bundesliga and collective club intellectual property in a listed prediction market format. Sportradar, the Bundesliga’s official sports wagering, streaming and data partner, retains exclusive rights to distribute official league data, with any provision of such data to Polymarket subject to a separate commercial agreement.
“Partnerships like this one are a testament to our long-term collaboration with Relevent to grow German soccer in the region, as we continue to showcase Football As It’s Meant to Be in the Americas,” said Robin Austermann, Bundesliga Americas executive vice president.
Polymarket has rapidly established itself as the prediction market partner of choice for major sports leagues, holding official partnerships with Spain and Italy’s soccer top flights – LALIGA and Serie A – as well as MLB, NHL, UFC and MLS.
“The Bundesliga is home to some of the most exciting players in world football, and its U.S. audience reflects that,” said Ari Borod, President of Sports Business Development at Polymarket. “An official partnership with the Bundesliga equips Polymarket to serve that audience with the credibility the league deserves.”
Joint Statement by gambling regulators of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland (press release): It is now the 2026 Men’s FIFA World Cup.
We recognize that this is one of the most important and high-profile tournaments in the world and that we are therefore likely to see an increase in betting activity.
During this competition, alongside consumer protection issues, a form of gambling that is relatively new to many jurisdictions is sure to be the talk of the town: prediction market platforms. They have become increasingly popular over the last few years, particularly for young adults.
By allowing users to place bets on the outcome of political, sporting or geopolitical events, prediction markets have several addictive features, which are worsened by the fact that, in those countries where these platforms are not licensed they don’t offer any safeguards: platforms are open 24 hours a day, there are no built-in betting limits apart from the amounts staked, no time limits, light identity checks to verify that users are of legal age, etc. The combination of visibility, accessibility and the viral nature inherent to this type of platform creates a significant addictive cycle.
As regulators, we have a key role to play in ensuring player protection throughout the tournament and that prediction markets must operate in accordance with the licensing and regulatory requirements of a given jurisdiction. It is important to emphasize that this type of platform involves serious risks of illegality, fund blocking, fraud through insider information, and financial volatility. Furthermore, because they are unregulated in most countries, they can create serious addiction problems.
We will therefore be working closely together on this issue during this period; and in doing so we will not only ensure that gambling operators comply with regulations on advertising, betting integrity and player protection, but also act, where necessary, against prediction markets platforms that fail to comply with our local regulations.
We would also like to remind the various stakeholders in the sporting world, particularly sports federations, leagues and teams, to ensure that these platforms are lawful within their jurisdiction before entering into major partnerships with them.
Of course, throughout the tournament and beyond, we will be developing greater cross-border cooperation, particularly through the exchange of information, expertise and best practice, and most of us will step up our social media activity during the competition to promote safe gambling.
My latest roundup:
📣 Industry news
Jeff Sherman To Leave SuperBook For Circa (InGame): “Two months after Caesars announced it will be taking over day-to-day operations of the Westgate SuperBook, there’s now another change in the works at the popular Las Vegas sportsbook. Jeff Sherman, who has over 25 years on the bookmaking side and is well-known as one of golf’s top oddsmakers, is leaving the SuperBook and has been hired as senior risk manager at Circa Sports, as first reported Saturday by Ryan Glasspiegel of Front Office Sports and confirmed Monday by InGame.”
📖 Other things you should know/read
Illinois Sportsbooks Report Increased Revenue On Fewer Bets, Lower Handle (InGame): “Illinois sportsbooks topped $1 billion in handle for the seventh straight month in April, though handle and the number of bets placed were down year-over-year. The latest revenue report from the Illinois Gaming Board, released June 15, showed handle of $1.21 billion and taxable revenue of $129 million.”
WSOP Player Smokes, Drinks, Snags Chips — And Gets The Boot (Casino Reports): “The Brazilian man — who, as best we can tell, is not a professional poker player and does not have a documented tournament track record — broke a series of written and unwritten rules and got himself ejected from the tournament, forfeiting his $3K buy-in in the process.”