Each Wednesday, I provide commentary in short-form audio on a topic in the US gambling industry.
Prediction markets – and sports betting – are going to be in every app with a wallet at the current rate. Fake news or the coming reality? I take a look at recent events and the future for prediction market integrations.
Identifying Warning Signs
Sponsor’s message: FanDuel Responsible Gaming Ambassadors Randy Livingston and Anita Ondine Smith outline some of the gambling warning signs parents should look out for, including behavioral change that could indicate there is a potential gambling-related issue.
Trusted Voices is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs, risks and proxy betting.
Gambling news roundup
UFC met with FBI after suspicious betting in Dulgarian fight (ESPN): “The UFC and FBI are actively working together on an investigation into unusual betting activity ahead of a fight last weekend in Las Vegas. According to UFC CEO Dana White, the UFC was alerted by sports betting watchdog Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360) to abnormal betting interest in a featherweight bout between Isaac Dulgarian and Yadier del Valle at UFC Fight Night on Saturday.”
“[IC360] reached out and told us there was some unusual action going on with that fight and [asked] did we know anything,” White told TMZ. “We didn’t. We called the fighter and his lawyer and said, ‘What’s going on? Are you injured? Do you owe anybody money, has anybody approached you?’ The kid said, ‘Absolutely not. I’m going to kill this guy.’
“The fight plays out, first-round finish -- literally, the first thing we did was call the FBI. I met the FBI twice [Tuesday].”
Sources: NBA, Congressional committee meet amid gambling probes (ESPN): “A United States congressional committee is meeting with NBA officials Wednesday in Washington in the wake of the indictments of Chauncey Billups, Terry Rozier and Damon Jones, sources told ESPN’s Shams Charania. The meeting is considered an informational sit-down for members of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and will include conversations about the league’s partnerships with sportsbooks and measures to prevent illegal use of non-public information, the sources said.”
Do Americans trust athletes amid gambling scandals? (YouGov): “YouGov asked Americans how often, if at all, they believe professional athletes alter how they play to help gamblers win sports bets, how they feel about legalized sports betting, and more. The survey, conducted in the immediate aftermath of the FBI’s match-fixing announcement, found that 65% of Americans believe that professional athletes alter how they play to help gamblers win sports bets.”
‘Major’ PA Operators Forming $10M Super PAC, Sources Say (Legal Sports Report): “A group of ‘major’ sports betting and online casino operators concerned that Pennsylvania gaming taxes could rise are setting aside millions for next year’s midterm elections, sources tell Legal Sports Report. The operators intend to form a super PAC, which will let the group openly support politicians and causes throughout the election season. It will launch with $10 million in initial funding.”
💡 My take: The desire to raise taxes in states with legal sports betting continues to grow. We’re definitely past the point of wishcasting for these efforts to dissipate…this is a sign the industry is getting more serious about stopping the proliferation of higher tax rates. As always, the existence of prediction markets offering sports betting in Pennsylvania at a tax rate of :checks notes: zero percent should be a talking point.
Sports Betting Alliance Does Not Support Wisconsin Online Sports Betting Bill (Sports Betting Dime): “Some of the largest sports betting companies in the country are not in favor of a recently introduced bill to legalize Wisconsin online sports betting. A spokesperson for the Sports Betting Alliance, which represents the interests of bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Fanatics Sportsbook, and FanDuel, reported that Sen. Howard L. Marklein’s bill (R-17), SB 592, to legalize Wisconsin online sports betting will not be an economically viable pathway for their members into the state. According to Damon Stewart, counsel for the Sports Betting Alliance, if Wisconsin legalizes online sports betting through the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and the proposed hub-and-spoke model, it will require all tethered online sports betting operators to provide at least 60% of revenues to their tribal partners, which operators cannot afford to do in the low-margin business of online sports betting.”
Attorney General Ellison directs illegal gambling websites to stop offering services in Minnesota (press release): Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison announced today that he has sent letters to 14 operators of illegal gambling websites, directing them to stop offering online gambling in Minnesota because they may violate Minnesota consumer-protection laws that prohibit deceptive, fraudulent, unfair or unconscionable practices. These websites include social sweepstakes casinos that use virtual coins to play casino games for cash and prizes, as well as websites offering sports betting, poker, and other types of gambling, all of which are prohibited under Minnesota’s laws (Minn. St. 609.755-609.76). An example of the letters that Attorney General Ellison sent are available here: social sweepstakes casino letter – undisguised gambling website letter.
The Alcohol and Gambling Enforcement Division of the Minnesota Department of Public Safety sent letters to these same 14 sites in June of this year to alert them to potential criminal-law violations that arise with online gambling, particularly with social sweepstakes casinos. The letters asked the sites to stop their operations or change their business practices to comply with Minnesota’s wagering laws, but the sites have not done so. In addition to the potential criminal violations that the AGE Division identified in its June letters, the letters that Attorney General Ellison sent today highlight Minnesota civil consumer-protection laws that the sites may be violating.
“Online platforms offering sportsbooks and casino games run by out-of-state and overseas operators may make it look as though online gambling is legal and safe in Minnesota, but let me be clear: it is not,” said Attorney General Ellison. “Trying to rebrand poker chips as virtual currencies does not change the fact that these online gambling operations are unlawful. By continuing to operate online gambling sites in Minnesota, these operators are likely openly defying our State’s laws and I will not stand for it. I want to thank Commissioner Jacobson and the Alcohol and Gambling Enforcement Division of the Department of Public Safety for partnering with my office and me on this issue.”
“Illegal online casinos and sweepstakes sites make big promises but deliver only risk to Minnesota consumers,” said Minnesota Department of Public Safety Commissioner Bob Jacobson. “Most are based outside the United States to avoid laws, regulation and enforcement measures. There’s no accountability, no protection for players and no way to know if the betting will be run fairly. Through our Alcohol and Gambling Enforcement division, we will work with the Attorney General to hold these operators accountable, protect Minnesotans and ensure the integrity of Minnesota’s gaming industry.”
The gambling operations that received letters from Attorney General Ellison include social sweepstakes casinos, where consumers can play casino games like slots or roulette and redeem virtual currency, often called “sweeps coins,” for cash or prizes. Players get sweeps coins when they buy a package of virtual currency, including sweeps coins and gold coins. The sale of sweeps coins to play a game of chance for a real-world prize turns these sites — which often claim to be only entertainment — into illegal gambling.
The action also targeted operators that run online platforms offering undisguised illegal gambling, ranging from sportsbooks to wagering on horse racing to poker and live casino table games. While sports betting has been legalized in other states, it is not lawful in the State of Minnesota.
Unregulated gambling leaves consumers without important consumer protections. The State does not audit or regulate gambling websites, because they are not legal in Minnesota. If consumers wager on an illegal site, they have no guarantee that they will be paid what they win, that the contest will not be rigged, or that they will be able to get their money back if they are not treated fairly.
The Attorney General’s Office sent letters today to the following sites:
VG LuckyLand
Zula Casino
Fortune Coins
BetAnySports
BetUs
XBet
BetNow
BetWhale
EveryGame Sportsbook
BetOnline
Slotsandcasino
Bovada
MyBookie.com
Sportsbetting.com
More on the sweepstakes impact at Sweepsy.
Crypto platform Gemini is getting into prediction markets:
My daily roundup of the prediction markets industry:
FanDuel CEO: We Have Flexibility To Pivot Into Sports Event Contracts (InGame): “Howe suggests that FanDuel’s steps on its prediction market deal have been made in a way that will allow the company to offer sports if the situation is right.”
“We’ll give ourselves the flexibility to be able to pivot based on how we see the regulatory environment,” Howe says.
Nevada gaming regulators may be ready to adjust sports-betting rules (Las Vegas Review-Journal): “Nevada gaming regulators may be ready to adjust sports-betting rules to protect consumers and sportsbooks from schemes involving player underperformance like those unearthed by the Justice Department last month involving organized crime and current and former NBA players. In two sportsbook-related licensing requests Wednesday, Nevada Gaming Control Board members sought advice from license applicants about how to prevent cheating resulting from athletic underperformance and how it affects proposition bets.”
The Job Corner
Here’s my reverse job board for individuals seeking employment in the gaming industry. If you want to be included as seeking employment, fill out this form!
Want to advertise a role you need to hire? Just reply to this newsletter (if you’re reading it via email) or reach out to dustin@closinglineconsulting.com.
Ifrah Law has been at the center of advancing iGaming in the U.S., shaping groundbreaking legislation, leading precedent-setting cases, and guiding clients that span the iGaming ecosystem through every phase of their business journey. Learn more at IfrahLaw.com.
Stephen A. Smith Signs Ambassadorship With Controversial Skill-Gaming Company Papaya, as Botting Lawsuit Moves to Trial (Poker Scout): “Renowned sports commentator Stephen A. Smith has signed a deal with Papaya Gaming to host its upcoming Solitaire World Championship in Miami, even as the company heads to trial over accusations of false advertising stemming from the use of house bots from 2019 until at least 2023. The deal includes ad spots for the championship, using actual footage of Smith juxtaposed with AI-generated imagery. Papaya is offering 400 players who qualify through its app all-expenses trips to an unspecified five-star hotel, where they will compete next February for $300,000 in prizes.”
“Meanwhile, Papaya has lost its bid to have the case brought against it by rival Skillz dismissed. Having initially denied the factual basis of the claim, Papaya no longer disputes that, at one time, it pitted human players against computer-controlled adversaries. Some were used to fill tournaments that had insufficient human players, but others were deployed to guarantee a specific outcome — win or loss — for a particular player.”
Genius Sports Reports 38% Group Revenue Growth and Raises Full-Year 2025 Group Revenue and Adj. EBITDA Guidance, Driven by Strengthening Media Product (press release): Genius Sports Limited, the official data, technology and broadcast partner that powers the global ecosystem connecting sports, betting and media, today announced financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2025.
“Our growth this quarter reflects our unique ability to combine sports data with audience intelligence to deliver personalized fan experiences at scale,” said Mark Locke, Genius Sports Co-Founder and CEO. “We’re extending our leadership in online sports betting and sports advertising through richer content, rapid product adoption, and strong commercial momentum, driving continued growth and long-term value for our partners.”
Group Revenue of $166.3m, representing 38% growth year-over-year
Group Revenue growth predominately driven by 89% growth in Media revenue and 28% growth in Betting revenue
Group Net Loss of ($28.8m) whilst Group Adj. EBITDA increased 32% year-over-year to $34.0m
2025 Group Revenue guidance raised to $655m, representing 28% growth year-over-year
2025 Group Adj. EBITDA guidance raised to $136m, representing 59% growth year-over-year and a 21% margin.
Q3 2025 Business Highlights
Acquired Sports Innovation Lab, a leader in sports fan data, to bolster the world’s most advanced fan activation platform
Expanded partnerships with Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and ESPN BET to provide official data, live trading and BetVision
Launched BetVision product for global basketball competitions
Secured exclusive official data and streaming rights with Serie A through 2029 to power next-generation BetVision product …
Delivered augmented advertising content for Shopify, NBA 2K and Point3 on FanDuel Sports Network’s broadcasts of select WNBA games
More coverage from iGB.
A few interesting slides from the presentation on the US market:
Genius stock was down slightly on the day.
Kambi reports Q3 (press release): Since the start of Q3, Kambi has signed seven Turnkey Sportsbook partners, three Odds Feed+ deals and two partner renewals – a clear reflection of the commercial progress we are making” – says Werner Becher, CEO of Kambi Group
Financial highlights
Revenue in the third quarter 2025 was €37.4m (43.0m), a decrease of 13.1%. Excluding €2.3m of transition fees received in Q3 2024, revenues decreased by 8.1%. For the period January to September 2025, revenues were €119.3m (132.0m), a decrease of 9.6%. Excluding €11.2m of transition fees received in the same period in 2024, revenues decreased by 1.2%.
Adjusted EBITA (acq) in the quarter was €3.4m (4.9m), at a margin of 9.0% (11.4%). For the period January to September 2025, Adjusted EBITA (acq) was €9.4m (18.2m), at a margin of 7.9% (13.8%), and €10.3m (19.1m) excluding the impact of FX revaluations.
Key operational highlights
Signed four Odds Feed+ deals, including with major European operator Superbet Group, underlining the quality of Kambi’s modular odds feed solution
Agreed numerous Turnkey Sportsbook partnerships, including an online deal with Glitnor Group and with Oneida Indian Nation, which operates three retail properties in New York State
Acquired source code for a player account management platform from OMEGA Systems, unlocking Turnkey Sportsbook opportunities in Nevada
From the presentation:
Kambi stock was up 7% on the day.
More from Next.io: “However, the company’s outlook has been hit by delays and external pressures. The planned Q4 launch with Ontario Lottery & Gaming (OLG) is now expected in Q1 2026, pushing back expected revenue. As a result, Kambi revised its 2025 guidance to adjusted EBITA of around €17m, down from its previous forecast of €20m–€25m.”
Fanatics Sportsbook And Megan Thee Stallion Hit All The Right Notes With New NBA Campaign (press release): Fanatics Sportsbook, the fastest growing sportsbook in America, is turning up the volume on basketball season with a cinematic new campaign starring three-time, Grammy Award-winning superstar, entrepreneur, and philanthropist Megan Thee Stallion. Kicking off the season, the new series, “Explained by Megan Thee Stallion,” celebrates where basketball, music, and culture collide, showcasing Fanatics’ industry-leading FanCash rewards and Fair Play™ injury protection in a way only Megan could.
Set on a dramatically lit basketball court, “FanCash Explained by Megan Thee Stallion,” features the superstar commanding a 25-piece orchestra from center court, blending swagger and sophistication to show how Fanatics Sportsbook’s FanCash rewards hits differently. With an orchestral rendition of her chart-topping hit “Savage” building behind her, Megan breaks down why Fanatics is changing the game with a more rewarding betting experience for fans.
How might the longest US government shutdown in history affect the gaming industry? (iGB): “For the gaming industry, a prolonged shutdown puts pressure on both retail and digital stakeholders. Fears related to sluggish tourism and air travel, especially for Las Vegas, will continue to mount, as will uncertainty regarding prediction markets and federal financial regulators. The American Gaming Association, the industry’s lobbying arm, has not commented directly on the shutdown but referred iGB to a letter from the US Travel Association dated Monday, which the AGA co-signed. The letter was addressed to Senate and House leaders. Other gaming co-signers included Delaware North, Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts.”
“As a broad coalition of organisations and companies representing every sector of the US travel industry, we urge Congress to immediately pass a clean continuing resolution to reopen the federal government,” the letter reads in part. “With Thanksgiving, the busiest travel period of the year, imminently approaching, the consequences of a continued shutdown will be immediate, deeply felt by millions of American travellers and economically devastating to communities in every state.”
YouTube updates policy for gambling content to include digital goods (SBC Americas): “YouTube is the latest tech company to update its policies related to gambling. The Google-owned online video sharing platform updated its Community Guidelines to align with the dynamic gaming industry amid the popularity of digital goods and social casinos. Starting Nov. 17, YouTube will prohibit its users from sharing non-Google certified content that directs viewers to online gambling sites and apps that use digital goods.”
“We expect most channels will experience little to no impact, but we know this is a lot of information, and we want to ensure you have time to adapt,” said YouTube.
Mikie Sherrill Won’t Save Atlantic City Casino Workers From Secondhand Smoke (Casino Reports): “New Jerseyans elected Mikie Sherrill to be their — our to me, since I’m a Jersey guy — next governor. It was an unexpected landslide, as the Democrat won over 56% of the vote over Republican candidate Jack Ciatarrelli on Tuesday. At least one group is hopeful Sherrill’s election will help its cause. CEASE, a.k.a. Casino Employees Against Smoking Effects, sent out a breathless (pun intended) press release post-Sherrill victory, congratulating her and looking forward ‘to working with her to close the casino smoking loophole that has left casino workers breathing toxic air for far too long.’”
The latest from Steve Ruddock at STTP:
David Bean steps up as IGA Chairman after Ernie Stevens Jr.’s passing (SBC Americas): “David Bean, for years a prominent figure within the Indian Gaming Association (IGA), has officially taken over as chairman for the remainder of the late Ernie Stevens, Jr.’s term. Stevens, Jr. passed away suddenly on Sept. 26 after 13 terms as IGA chair spanning more than two decades. Vice Chairman Bean has stepped up in accordance with the organization’s bylaws to take over until the next chairman election in 2027, unless a special election is called before then. The IGA will hold elections for its vice chairman and treasurer positions at its annual tradeshow and convention in March 2026.”
“Ernie always reminded us that ‘there is more work to do, let’s get up tomorrow and get at it,’” said Bean. “As the new Chairman of IGA, I intend to continue on the path that Ernie laid down for over 20 years, carrying forward his dedication to protecting tribal sovereignty and advancing the interests of all tribal nations.”
SBC Summit heads back to Lisbon in September in 2026 and 2027 (SBC Americas): “SBC Events has reiterated the 2026 dates and announced the 2027 dates for its flagship SBC Summit, which most recently brought together 30,000 industry professionals in Lisbon. The global event will return to the Feira Internacional de Lisboa and the MEO Arena on Sept. 29 to Oct. 1, 2026, and Sept. 21-23, 2027.
“Clarity and predictability, at least when it comes to dates, are vital,” said SEO Founder and CEO Rasmus Sojmark. “Our partners deserve to plan ahead without uncertainty. By setting our dates well in advance, we ensured that everyone could organize their year efficiently and contributed to a well-balanced industry event calendar.
