The Takeaway: The Odds For Legal Texas Sports Betting
TCL will offer a take/analysis of something in the US gambling space in The Takeaway every Thursday.
The story of the first five years of US sports betting was expansion. The initial wave of adoption of both retail and online sports gambling came faster than even the most optimistic along us could have dreamed.
But that has left few areas for expansion, with Missouri sports betting one of the few glimmers of hope in the short-term. We’ve also been left with the two largest states off the board and the third with a monopoly:
California: After a disastrous effort to legalize sports betting in 2022, we’re likely years away from statewide online betting, even in a best-case scenario.
Florida: The Seminole Tribe and Hard Rock have secured a monopoly over online sports betting. There’s a chance other operators could be allowed in via a commercial deal, but legislative expansion is all but off the menu.
Texas: Many have long thought this is the best chance of the three to create a fairly open sports betting market, but those hopes have been dashed every year to date.
Still, Texas has a chance to add legal sports betting in 2025, and it’s already the subject of prognostication with Election Day around the corner.
I’m betting against Texas sports betting happening — I’ll put it at a 10% chance. I actually think it’s probably a bit worse, but I am doing my best to offset my pessimistic tendencies. (I am also not paying out bets at these odds at Closing Line Sportsbook; odds are for educational purposes only.) Other takes of late:
A political scientist in Texas gives you shorter odds at legalization than I am spreading, at 25-30%.
Let’s jump into what’s (still) going against Texas getting legal sports betting any time soon.
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The story hasn’t changed
In the two years since Texas last took a stab at legalizing sports betting, the dynamics haven’t changed much.
The House passed a sports betting bill in 2023. But the House was never the sticking point, the problem was always the Senate and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Patrick has stood as the main roadblock to any progress, and he remains there for now (more on that later).
Despite the passage of two years, most of the same obstacles exist.
Time is short, as always
Texas has a short legislative session vs. most other states. The House and Senate only convene for 140 days every two years, which is not conducive to getting controversial bills to the finish line. Next year, Texas wraps up on June 2.
if you head into the session with your ducks in a row, passing Texas sports betting could definitely happen. But when you have to try to thread the needle in a short time once the session starts, the degree of difficulty goes up demonstrably.
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If you’re looking for upside…
I am entirely too negative. I know this and openly admit it. So if you want to have hope for legal Texas sports betting, here’s what I can give you:
Patrick moving on?: If former President Donald Trump wins the election, there’s a chance Patrick leaves Texas to serve the administration in Washington, D.C. That’s a change agent that upsets the current (negative) status quo. In this scenario, there’s no guarantee that Patrick’s replacement would be any more excited about an expansion of gambling. But you can argue any change is an improvement over Patrick for the prospects of sports betting legalization.
New legislators: We’re not likely to get a vastly different legislature out of the November elections. But all of the House seats are up for election, as are 15 of the 31 Senate seats. Again, the House wasn’t the problem last time, but could a different makeup in the Senate have a chance of stirring change? It’s feasible.
Lobbying more focused on Texas?: This is perhaps the biggest X-factor. What will lobbying look like behind a sports betting bill in 2025? The number of states where there will be active lobbying for online sports betting will be relatively small next year. Online casino seems almost dead on arrival across most of the country. It’s possible you could see a more concerted effort in Texas than we’ve seen previously if there’s a legitimate chance to flip the script. It’s also a relatively recent development that the likes of Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones have been behind sports betting. Successful lobbying is often the result of cumulative efforts over time. All of it could add up to better hopes this time around.
Gray and black markets in Texas. I am not sure this is a convincing argument, but it’s out there. There are already offshore sportsbooks, fantasy pick’em and sweepstakes sportsbooks in Texas, all for real money. PrizePicks is even a partner with the NHL’s Dallas Stars. Shouldn’t you want to bring sports betting into the light if you’re Texas? Legislators are probably not aware of or care about much of this. But it’s a variable in play if you’re trying to make a case for something that Texas can regulate and tax, when there’s so much of it already in the state largely unregulated and untaxed.
In any event, I’ll be happy to be cold-taked if Texas gets something done in the new year. Either way, we’ll be watching the Lone Star State.
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