The Cashout: A More Complete Look At Early 2025 Sports Betting Numbers
Gambling news roundup: Tribes don't make any progress with the CFTC on prediction markets; MLB players dealing with threats that may be linked to gambling; Ohio online casino update
TCL offers market analysis in the US gambling space in The Cashout every weekend to paid subscribers, along with a news roundup for free subscribers.
Nevada sports betting numbers are in for April, and we finally got some new Arizona metrics, giving us a more complete look at how things are shaping up early in 2025.
But first, the free gambling news roundup:
Gambling news roundup
For all things prediction markets for the week, please check out my other newsletter, The Event Horizon:
Indian Country Says CFTC Won’t Take Any Action On Prediction Markets (InGame): “Eight tribal entities Thursday had a chance to shoot their shot with regard to sports event contracts to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but two sources told InGame the takeaway was underwhelming. They say they won’t get any help defending tribal sovereignty or gaming exclusivity from the federal agency. ‘What I took from that whole session is that [Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham] ain’t doing anything, and doesn’t know if the incoming director is going to do anything,’ said one source, who wished to remain anonymous. ‘It was interesting to hear how in tune she was about not doing anything. It was basically like she was showing us all the ways they can’t do anything.’
Continued CFTC inaction was quite predictable (pun intended). But this meeting was a necessary step for tribes who view prediction markets as a threat to their sovereignty. With a regulatory answer all but off the table, a cohort of tribes will have to decide if they want to bring a legal challenge, and how that would manifest. If they don’t want nationwide sports betting, that’s going to have to be the tack they take.
MLB players’ families grapple with rising online threats as sports betting surges (Associated Press): “Lance McCullers Jr. is one of two MLB pitchers whose families have received online death threats as internet abuse of players and their families is on the rise. Boston reliever Liam Hendriks took to social media soon after the incident with McCullers to call out people who were threatening his wife’s life and directing ‘vile’ comments at him. The Astros contacted MLB security and the Houston Police Department following the threats to McCullers. A police spokesperson said that it remains an ongoing investigation. McCullers, who has two young daughters, took immediate action after the threats and hired 24-hour security for his family.”
I continue to have a couple of questions on all this: 1. This doesn’t excuse any of the behavior, but why are athletes even bothering to look at direct messages from random people? 2. What, if anything will social media platforms ever do to help? I detest the behavior, but there are also no easy answers to solve it. The answer likely has to start with Twitter, Instagram, etc., working in partnership with leagues and/or sportsbooks.
Yasiel Puig Sports Betting Guilty Plea Overturned by Federal Court (MSN): “The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit on Thursday affirmed a trial court's evidence-based ruling in favor of former MLB All-Star outfielder Yasiel Puig. In 2022, Puig reneged on a pre-indictment plea agreement with federal prosecutors, and the DOJ demanded he should face repercussions for evidence revealed during plea negotiations.”
New York, Louisiana Lawmakers Focusing on Sweepstakes Prohibition Bills (Sports Betting Dime): “A New York Assembly bill to prohibit sweepstakes have moved forward to another committee, while a Louisiana bill aiming to do the same only stands one vote away from being sent to the governor. New York Assembly bill A6745, the assembly counterpart to Senate bill S5935, received a favorable report from the Assembly Committee on Codes and has been referred to the Assembly Ways and Means Committee. Both bills seek to prohibit dual-currency sweepstakes games in the Empire State. In the Pelican State, Louisiana lawmakers have scheduled a House of Representatives hearing on Senate-approved bill SB 181, which aims to ban dual-currency sweepstakes gaming and prohibit casino-style gaming such as slot machines, lottery games, and sports betting, for next week.”
More than 100 pastors ask Ohio lawmakers to thwart a bill to expand electronic gambling (WYSO): “More than 100 pastors and religious leaders throughout Ohio have signed onto a letter urging state lawmakers to say “no dice” to expanded gambling. Among the group is Rep. Gary Click (R-Vickery), who is also a pastor. ‘We know that gambling appeals to those who have the lowest education, the lowest income and the greatest debt. As we increase gambling, especially online gambling, we are hurting, we are harming, the most vulnerable people in the state of Ohio,’ Click said. Click said he won’t vote for a bill that allows expanded gambling through internet-based casino games, horse races, and online lottery. Click and the other religious leaders said gambling disproportionately hurts Ohio’s most vulnerable citizens.”
After what seemed like some early momentum for Ohio online casino legalization, it seems like the odds of something happening in the short term have dropped considerably.
DraftKings won’t be taking over proposed Long Island casino project from Sands: sources (Newsday, paywall): “Online sportsbook DraftKings won’t be taking over Las Vegas Sands’ proposed casino project in Nassau County, after talks failed to result in an agreement, two sources with knowledge of the discussions told Newsday. ‘There is no deal between the companies nor will there be,’ one of the sources said, requesting anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks. ‘DraftKings will not be taking over the Sands bid.’”
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Current division leaders are strong sports betting favorites (MLB.com): “Ahead of the final weekend of May, all six division favorites are -110 or better to win their grouping via the latest odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. That means six teams have better than a 52.38% implied probability of winning their division at this point in the season. It might seem too early in the 2025 season to price six teams better than a coin flip of winning their division, but it’s worth taking a look at each situation to have a better understanding of the market entering the summer.”
I don’t care how long I have been doing this, it’s still jarring to see written gambling content on official league sites.
PENN brings online PGA TOUR Blackjack game to New Jersey (SBC Americas): “PENN Entertainment is providing its online casino players with new golf-themed content. The hospitality and gaming giant launched on Thursday its new PGA TOUR Blackjack game in multiple jurisdictions. The game is the first iCasino title offered by PENN with branding from the world’s premier professional golf organization. PGA TOUR Blackjack has debuted in Ontario and New Jersey with the game available on PENN’s standalone Hollywood Casino app. In March, PENN launched its standalone Hollywood Casino app in the Garden State. PENN’s online casino in Ontario is housed in its theScore Casino app.”
Caesars Entertainment Launches Online Exclusive Title with Light & Wonder, ULTIMATE FIRE LINK™ CASH FALLS™ BY THE BAY™ (Press release): Caesars Entertainment, Inc. today announced the launch of a major exclusive online casino game in partnership with Light & Wonder on its marquee online casino platforms in New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ontario. Ultimate Fire Link Cash Falls by the Bay™ combines two beloved slot brands, Ultimate Fire Link and Cash Falls, and is now live for online casino players across Caesars Palace Online Casino, Horseshoe Online Casino, and Caesars Sportsbook & Casino. Players on these premier online casino platforms can now enjoy early access to this thrilling new game, which promises to deliver an unparalleled gaming experience with its unique blend of features and engaging gameplay. In addition, Caesars will be hosting a select group of VIP Caesars Rewards® members in Atlantic City in celebration of the special debut. … ‘Ultimate Fire Link has a well-earned reputation as one of the most iconic game families across casino floors,’ said Matthew Sunderland, Senior Vice President and Chief iGaming Officer at Caesars Digital. ‘This exclusive online launch in four jurisdictions not only brings a first-to-market experience to our online casino players but continues to bring the excitement of our world-class brick-and-mortar casinos to our online gaming platforms.’”
Casino gambling in Texas less likely after tough legislative session for proponents (Dallas Morning News): “Lawmakers in the House and Senate never gave casino gambling and sports betting much thought, and even one local government showed some skittishness about approving gambling in potential future developments. Today the prospect of resort-style gambling palaces in Texas and wagering through sports-betting apps is as elusive as it’s been since the renewed push for gambling expansion began in 2021.”
Sports betting lounge at Hartford’s XL Center makes cuts to hours, staffing and more in bid to close budget shortfall (Hartford Business Journal): “The sports betting lounge was developed by the Capital Region Development Authority as part of a $15 million package of upgrades for the XL Center. It opened in 2023 with high hopes that it could help boost a quiet corner of Hartford’s downtown. The venue, which opened in September 2023, attracts crowds during events, but has not been much of a draw otherwise, leading to a roughly $500,000 loss last fiscal year and a projected $200,000 loss this fiscal year.”
Trusted Voices: Conversations About Betting is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs, risks and proxy betting. The program is led by retired professional basketball player Randy Livingston and his wife, basketball agent Anita Smith, who share their personal stories related to problem gambling, with the hope of preventing others from experiencing similar harms. Learn more and join the conversation here.
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Here’s what we have this week for paid subscribers:
Breaking down early 2025 sports betting metrics by state and operator
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ESPN Bet opt-out watch
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