The Cashout: Bad Q4 Not Just A FanDuel Problem For US Sports Betting
TCL will offer market analysis in the US gambling space in The Cashout every Friday to paid subscribers, along with a news roundup for free subscribers. The weekly post will focus on metrics in the US market, as well as regulatory and legal developments as events warrant.
How bad is Q4 going to be for US sportsbooks? The early December numbers point to the idea that this is far from just a problem for FanDuel, which warned the market that it was revising guidance down for the US for FY 2024.
But first, here’s the Friday roundup:
Ifrah Law has been at the center of advancing iGaming in the U.S., shaping groundbreaking legislation, leading precedent-setting cases, and guiding clients that span the iGaming ecosystem through every phase of their business journey. Learn more at IfrahLaw.com.
Gambling news roundup Jan. 10
Your nearly daily update on how the winds are blowing for legal Minnesota sports betting.
Some more insight and conjecture (from an airline blog) on what the DraftKings-Delta partnership will look like. The blog speculates about what it would mean to legalize in-flight gambling. From where I sit there are a lot of other logistical challenges to betting on flights beyond just current federal law.
A Pennsylvania sportsbook gets rebranded as ESPN Bet; whether you care or not, this is where I grew up!
Do we need to be able to bet on fires at prediction market sites?
A bill in Maine would ban real-money fantasy sports that mimics prop betting (ie PrizePicks et al).
A bill in Nebraska would allow sportsbooks to take bets on the Cornhuskers.
Gambling newsletter corner
Patience pending - Will others follow Flutter’s lead and buy their way into Brazil?
Cry in the wilderness - Exiting CFTC chair leaves with political betting warning
The fourth quarter for US sportsbooks
The fourth quarter isn’t going to be great. The first inkling was a bad October (paywall) because of sports bettors losing less money than they usually do “customer-friendly results.” Now we’re seeing that trend continue later in the year, as FanDuel parent company Flutter told the market that they will miss on revenue because of Q4.
You can spin the run of losses positively — namely that it’s not terrible if sports bettors win sometimes, and that the same volatility that created the bad results for sportsbooks is a feature (not a bug) that can drive higher revenues in the long term.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Closing Line to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.