Breaking News: Kalshi Files To Launch Moneyline Betting Equivalent
The Cashout: Is The Big Two Of US Sports Betting Really A Big Four?
TCL will offer market analysis in the US gambling space in The Cashout every Friday to paid subscribers, along with a news roundup for free subscribers.
App Store download data shows us that PrizePicks and Underdog are just as popular if not moreso than DraftKings and FanDuel. And we have the first January sports betting metrics out of New York.
But first, the Friday gambling news dump, including Kalshi expanding its sports betting offering:
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Gambling news roundup
New sports markets coming at Kalshi (CFTC filing): According to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission filing, Kalshi is self-certifying markets that use the formula “Will <team> win <event>?” contract. This means Kalshi will apparently be able to offer the equivalent of moneyline betting on the winner of games.
Here’s an example given in the CFTC filing for an event that Kalshi could list with this kind of contract: “The National Basketball Association meeting between the New York Knickerbockers and the Houston Rockets scheduled to be played February 3, 2025”
Markets could be up as soon as tomorrow, according to the filing.
Kalshi is up to $4 million in trades on the Super Bowl. See the market here.
Please sign up for my new newsletter on prediction markets. News blast coming there this evening on this development.
Kroger launches digital sports betting center (paywall): “Kroger Play provides users with access to ESPN Bet for sports betting, Penn Entertainment for casino games and OwnersBox for daily fantasy sports. Each is accessible by scanning Kroger’s QR code on its promotional signs for the service or through the Kroger Play site. Users then click on the service they want to download that company’s app, sign up for an account and enter the referral code KROGER to get offers and promotions.”
See the partnership in action here.
I wonder if we need gambling marketing via grocery stores. I guess we already do it for lottery, so what’s a bit more? But it does feel like we’re on the verge of crossing a line here.
It’s interesting that ESPN Bet is included here, and that we’re seeing Penn go into other marketing channels beyond ESPN as its sportsbook product lags behind its peers.
I also question if this is actually an effective customer acquisition tool for online betting apps.
Illinois lawmakers introduce online casino proposal (Legal Sports Report): “With Gov. JB Pritzker already hinting at online casino legalization, Illinois lawmakers have filed a proposal. Sen. Cristina Castro and Rep. Edgar Gonzalez filed Senate Bill 1963 and House Bill 3080 on Thursday. The bills would create the Internet Gaming Act and legalize online casino gambling in Illinois.”
There have been more online casino bills introduced this year in the US than in any previous year. But if we’re handicapping the passage of any of these bills, I’ll set the line at 0.5, with under being the favorite.
Major League Baseball and Sportradar Announce Expanded, Exclusive Partnership Through 2032 (release): “Major League Baseball (MLB) and Sportradar Group AG (NASDAQ: SRAD) today announced a long-term extension and expansion of their decade-long partnership, set to begin with the 2025 season, aimed at unlocking the full potential of MLB’s data and audiovisual (AV) content while growing America’s pastime worldwide. As part of the agreement, MLB has acquired an equity stake in Sportradar, further solidifying the partnership between the two organizations and supporting future growth opportunities.
“Under the new terms, Sportradar, in partnership with MLB, will exclusively distribute MLB’s ultra-low latency official data, media content, including MLB Statcast Data, and AV content across its global client network, which spans 800 sportsbook clients and 900 media companies. The continued, growing popularity of baseball in markets like Latin America and Asia, combined with the increasing legalization of sports betting, creates an opportunity for expanded utilization of MLB content and data.”
Kenny Gersh, MLB Executive Vice President, Media & Business Development, said: “Sportradar has been a great partner to MLB, particularly helping us navigate the legalization and continued evolution of the global sports betting landscape. Over the course of our partnership, Sportradar has consistently developed great products utilizing MLB’s best-in-class data. MLB is delighted to continue innovating with Sportradar to create engaging products and services for MLB fans globally.”
FanDuel says nearly half of bettors engaged with My
Spend during NFL season (release): “During the 2024-2025 NFL Season nearly half of its customers, approximately 3.5 million, reviewed their play activity using My Spend, a new personalized responsible gaming dashboard. Building on the success of My Spend, FanDuel has introduced its latest RG tool innovation, Deposit Alerts, enabling customers to create daily, weekly and monthly target budgets and receive a notification when they reach the amount they’ve set. The company is also expanding efforts to leverage technology to enable early intervention when at-risk behavior is identified with new initiatives to be announced in 2025.“
I am sure people will find reasons to pooh-pooh this, but seeing engagement with a tool like this is undoubtedly a positive. If you want to see more progress on RG, encourage wins and incremental gains, not find reasons to pick apart why a sportsbook isn’t doing enough.
The California loophole for betting on the Super Bowl (Axios): “Sports gambling isn't legal in California, but there are ways local residents can wager money on Super Bowl LIX through daily fantasy sports platforms. Why it matters: As online sportsbook companies have proliferated in the U.S., they've tapped into markets in states that don't allow sports betting by creating games that aren't considered gambling.”
FanDuel and DraftKings bet big on Super Bowl (Times of London): I am huge across the pond:
Source: West Virginia Attorney General Serves Subpoenas To ‘Sweepstakes’ Operators (Casino Reports): “The same source with direct knowledge that informed Casino Reports last week that West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey was preparing to subpoena ‘sweepstakes’ gaming operators now confirms that those subpoenas have been served. There is little information available beyond that, however, as the attorney general is not permitted to publish the subpoenas and, by West Virginia law, cannot comment on them until he receives a response from one of the operators.”
Fanatics bettors are choosing the Chiefs (Twitter):
Maybe no betting on Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL next year, huh? (ESPN): Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow won the award, but there was consternation about Vikings QB Sam Darnold in the betting markets:
“It also created immense confusion for sportsbooks. Some continued to offer odds on Darnold throughout the whole ordeal, while others took odds down temporarily when they interpreted him to be ineligible, only to put them back up once it became clear he could still win.”
A Big Four in US sports betting?
We like to make a big deal of FanDuel and DraftKings dominating the regulated sports betting industry. And rightfully so. Despite forecasts that they wouldn’t necessarily hold onto their early lead, there’s been no serious threat to their duopoly to date.
But as we head into the Super Bowl, it’s becoming clear that they have real competition for share of wallet and brand awareness from two fantasy pick’em/parlay apps: PrizePicks and Underdog.
I casually keep an eye on the App Store to see how the betting apps are doing. Every time I look at it of late, it’s some combination of the two sportsbooks and two fantasy apps in the free sports rankings. And often PrizePicks is No. 1.
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