The Cashout: Kalshi Might Already Be One Of The Biggest 'Legal' Sportsbooks In The US
March Madness betting data for the prediction market platform; Gambling news roundup: DraftKings is 'rooting' for green light from CFTC? And Maryland sports betting tax likely going up
TCL will offer market analysis in the US gambling space in The Cashout every weekend to paid subscribers, along with a news roundup for free subscribers.
We’re only a day into March Madness, but we are already getting a sense of how big betting on it is at Kalshi. The short answer: It might be seeing as much money traded on college basketball as there is handle at some sportsbooks not named DraftKings and FanDuel.
But first, here’s all the gambling news you need to know:
Gambling news roundup
My latest at The Event Horizon, on prediction markets:
JMP: DraftKings ‘rooting for’ positive prediction markets ruling from CFTC (Next.io): “DraftKings, JMP said, is ‘rooting for’ a positive ruling from the CFTC at its round-table next month before committing more seriously to the product. JMP highlighted the current offerings and UI/UX from existing companies are nowhere near as established as existing gambling platforms. The analysts said: ‘DKNG should carry an advantage with its ability to leverage cross-sell vehicles like DK Horse, Fantasy, and brand awareness stemming from its national marketing campaigns. Speed to market, which includes building out the product, will be key, but given the product is an exchange, the initial infrastructure will need to be rented from an outsourced company and yet, over time, migrated in house.’
This messaging is an escalation of DraftKings’ tone on prediction markets/sports event trading to date. DK has sounded positive notes, but it still seemed like the company would be sitting on the fence. In reality, the fence-sitting will likely continue for the short term, but the smart money would be on DraftKings preparing for the future in the background. DraftKings (and others in the gambling industry) will want to be in on prediction markets if there’s a regulatory green light, despite some parts of the gambling ecosystem wanting sports event trading to go away.
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Resorts World Las Vegas agrees to pay $10.5 million fine to settle money laundering violations (Nevada Independent): “The operators of Resorts World Las Vegas will pay the state a $10.5 million fine — the second-largest fine in Nevada gaming history — to settle a 12-count disciplinary complaint for failing to comply with federal anti-money laundering laws by allowing known illegal bookmakers to gamble millions of dollars at the Strip casino for more than a year. The stipulated settlement, posted to the Gaming Control Board’s website Thursday afternoon, will be considered by the Nevada Gaming Commission at its hearing next week in Las Vegas.”
Maryland Lawmakers Agree to Water Down Sports Betting Tax Hike (Covers.com): “That legislation previously proposed to increase the amount of revenue online sportsbook operators would have to hand over to the state to 30% from 15%. However, after changes were made by the House committee on Thursday, and the committee's decision to favorably report the amended bill, it would now only increase the tax rate to 20%.”
Sportsbooks can eat relatively small tax hikes…getting the middle ground between nothing and doubling a tax rate is arguably a win.
How much tax are Kalshi and Robinhood paying on sports betting revenue in Maryland? Asking for a friend.
And if we’re handicapping the possibility of Maryland online casinos being legalized, those odds appear to be getting longer.
Online Nebraska Sports Betting Heads To Senate Floor (Legal Sports Report): “Despite facing dozens of opponents during a committee hearing, a bill to take Nebraska sports betting online is heading to the Senate floor.
Sen. Eliot Bostar guided LR 20CA through the General Affairs Committee this week with a 6-2 vote. Now, it heads to the unicameral legislature’s Senate floor, where the Nebraska sports betting bill needs to achieve three separate two-thirds votes.”
Florida’s top gambling regulator became a FanDuel lobbyist. A bill would bar a repeat. (Tampa Bay Times): “As Florida’s first gambling regulator, Louis Trombetta took an aggressive approach to fantasy sports betting, driving three upstart companies to shut down their games in the state. Then he went to work for one of their competitors. … A House Republican’s bill would close a loophole that allowed Trombetta to accept a job with FanDuel — one of North America’s biggest fantasy sports and betting companies —while working as the Florida Gaming Control Commission’s top regulator. HB 1467 would expand the state’s lobbying ban to explicitly state that Florida’s gambling regulator cannot work for fantasy sports companies for two years after leaving the post.”
Trey Wingo reportedly out at DraftKings after less than a year (Awful Announcing): “But while the sports betting giant’s hiring of the ex-ESPN star came with plenty of fanfare, the partnership already appears to have reached its end, with Puck’s John Ourand reporting that DraftKings has parted ways with Wingo.”
I gotta be honest, I didn’t remember that Wingo even worked with DraftKings. Which probably answers the question of why Wingo is no longer with DraftKings.
Sweeps group decries potential ban in Arkansas (release): “The Social and Promotional Games Association (SPGA) strongly opposes Arkansas bills HB1861 and SB524, which dangerously misclassify lawful social sweepstakes games as illegal gambling. These proposals echo anti-competitive efforts pushed by entrenched casino interests and represent a significant threat to businesses, innovation, and a consumer’s freedom to choose what games they can play on their phones.”
Gambling industry reverse job board
Are you hiring for a role right now? Or are you looking for your next opportunity in the gambling industry? I run a free-to-use reverse job board with about 200 prospective hires across all segments of the industry. Take a look, and please share with anyone who is hiring or looking for work!
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The Cashout
Here’s what we have this week for paid subscribers:
Digging into betting volume and downloads metrics at Kalshi (and Robinhood) with the start of March Madness
bettingsports event trading. There’s been $80 million bet so far on college basketball via prediction markets.Updating February online sports betting numbers and market share
ESPN Bet opt-out watch.
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