The Cashout: Sportsbook Hold In June Still Very High After PA, NJ Numbers
Gambling news roundup: New developments in NBA, MLB betting investigations; CFTC chair gets committee vote on Monday; NCPG survey shows drop in problem gambling risk.
TCL provides market analysis in the US gambling space in The Cashout every weekend to paid subscribers, along with a news roundup for free subscribers.
Sports betting hold is still at almost 13% in June after the big states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania reported their numbers. Plus a look at early June online casino metrics.
But first, a look at recent news:
Gambling news roundup
Records detail unusual betting on NBA's Terry Rozier (ESPN): “A professional bettor placed 30 wagers in 46 minutes, all involving Terry Rozier in a 2023 NBA game, according to documents obtained by ESPN that reveal new details about the suspicious betting under scrutiny by federal investigators. On the morning of March 23, 2023, a bettor at a sportsbook in Biloxi, Mississippi, placed $13,759 in bets on the unders on Rozier's statistics in a game that night between the Charlotte Hornets and New Orleans Pelicans, according to the documents, which ESPN acquired through an open records request. All 30 bets won, after Rozier, an eight-year veteran with the Hornets at the time, exited 10 minutes into the game, citing a foot issue.”
Guardians pitcher Ortiz has leave of absence extended through August (MLB): “Guardians starter Luis L. Ortiz’s leave of absence has been extended through Aug. 31, Major League Baseball announced on Friday. ‘MLB and the MLBPA have agreed to extend Cleveland Guardians pitcher Luis Ortiz’s non-disciplinary paid leave through games on August 31st while MLB continues its investigation,’ the league said in a statement. Ortiz was placed on non-disciplinary paid leave through the All-Star break on July 3, per an agreement with the MLB Players Association, due to a league investigation. The 26-year-old is not permitted at team facilities while on leave, which removed him from Cleveland’s 40-man roster, though he is permitted contact with the organization.”
Sleeper goes to P2P in California (and other states) as well: I am not sure exactly when this change happened, but Sleeper is no longer offering fantasy pick’em against the house in California. PrizePicks and Underdog made similar changes recently in the wake of the California attorney general declaring daily fantasy sports illegal.
You can see the “Where Can I Play” page at Sleeper now (first screenshot) and in May (second screenshot), with California moving categories to PicksVS, the P2P version. Sleeper also removed access to the against-the-house version in some states besides California:
CFTC nominee to get committee vote: We learned late Friday that the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will vote on moving Brian Quintenz’s nomination for chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to the full Senate. We don’t know when the Senate might vote to confirm Quintenz. If you’re playing catch-up, that role is important because the CFTC is overseeing the expansion of prediction markets (ie Kalshi) into sports betting. That news came after:
Gambling Interests Urge Senators to Question CFTC Nominee On Prediction Markets (The Event Horizon): “A group of prominent interests from the gambling industry has expressed their concerns about prediction markets and the nominee to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in a letter to a Senate committee. Concerns about how CFTC nominee Brian Quintenz would handle sports betting via prediction markets appeared in a letter sent to members of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry obtained by The Event Horizon. Signees include various tribal gambling interests, the American Gaming Association and the National Council on Problem Gambling.”
We’ll see if we get any discussion on the above on Monday, or if we just get an up-or-down vote from the committee. Either way, it seems likely we are a step closer to Quintenz — a Kalshi board member — leading the CFTC.
And here’s my weekly roundup on all things prediction markets:
National Council on Problem Gambling Survey Shows Drop in Problem Gambling Risk, Highlights Ongoing Challenges (NCPG): A national survey released today by the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) finds the spike in risky gambling behavior observed during the COVID-19 pandemic has eased as awareness of the gambling health crisis and access to needed care has expanded. As gambling-related harm remains widespread, particularly among younger adults, sports bettors, and those who gamble online, active nationwide problem gambling prevention and education outreach is critical.
“This new research shows that the nationwide efforts in responsible gambling and public awareness are making a positive impact, but the work is far from over,” said Derek Longmeier, NCPG Board of Directors President. “We must build on this momentum by embedding problem gambling into the broader public health infrastructure and investing in what we know works: collaboration across prevention, education, treatment, and research with the support of the government and communities.”
The third installment of the National Survey on Gambling Attitudes and Gambling Experiences (NGAGE 3.0) shows that nearly 20 million American adults report experiencing at least one problematic gambling behavior ‘many times’ in the past year. This represents a decrease from 27.5 million in 2021, but remains elevated compared to 2018 levels.”
Key findings from NGAGE 3.0 include:
High-risk behavior is concentrated among specific groups:
28% of those who gambled on 10+ activities reported problematic behavior.
35% of individuals who gambled on 3+ activities weekly or more often met the threshold for concern.
24% of fantasy sports bettors and 17% of traditional sports bettors reported problematic behaviors.
15% of adults ages 18–34 reported concerning behavior, compared to 2% of those 55+.
10% of men—nearly double the rate of women—reported gambling-related problems.
Full study here.
National Council on Problem Gambling Announces Recipients of 2024 Awards (press release): “The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) is excited to announce the 2024 National Awards recipients. Each year, NCPG honors individuals and organizations from around the world for their work on problem gambling and responsible gambling. The awards ceremony was held on Friday, July 19, in San Diego, CA, at the National Conference on Gambling Addiction & Responsible Gambling 2024. Scientific Games was the exclusive sponsor of the ceremony. The award recipients were chosen based on outstanding individual and organizational accomplishments in the field of problem gambling and responsible gambling during the 2023 calendar year. The 2024 NCPG National Awards Recipients:”
Don Hulen Annual Award for Advocacy: Derek Longmeier, Executive Director, Problem Gambling Network of Ohio
Joanna Franklin Annual Award for Direct Service: Mary Drexler, Director of Operations, Maryland Center of Excellence on Problem Gambling
Jim Wuelfing Annual Award for Prevention: BetBlocker
Many more awards if you click through.
FanDuel’s Trusted Voices: Conversations About Betting is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs, risks and proxy betting. The program is led by retired professional basketball player Randy Livingston and his wife, basketball agent Anita Smith, who share their personal stories related to problem gambling, with the hope of preventing others from experiencing similar harms. Learn more and join the conversation here.
DraftKings Fined $90,000 In Colorado Over ‘Human Error’ (InGame): “Citing ‘human error’ as the reason that two wagering markets prohibited in Colorado were listed for betting, DraftKings Thursday was fined a total of $90,000 for two violations during the Limited Gaming Control Commission (LGCC) meeting. The operator allowed a college player proposition bet on then Arizona college basketball player Caleb Love for a March 23, 2025 game, and for taking wagers on the Nov. 15, 2024 Jake Paul-Mike Tyson boxing match. College-player proposition bets and the Paul-Tyson boxing match were prohibited wagering markets in Colorado.”
FanDuel agrees to pay thousands in fines to Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission (Radio Iowa): “State regulators have levied $125,000 dollars in fines for violations by the operators of the online gambling company FanDuel. There were five violations that included allowing bets that are not legal in Iowa on the Super Bowl, soccer matches and golf matches. And the largest fine of $30,000 was for not having working options for responsible gaming. FanDuel spokesman Ben Roth represented the company before the Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission [last] Friday. ‘We take responsibility for the matters represented in the settlement before the Commission today and understand that we did not meet the high standard that we hold for ourselves,’ he says. Roth says they have been working to be sure all the issues are corrected. ‘In response to the issues before you today, FanDuel has worked to remediate the various root causes through a combination of manual remediation efforts. That includes increased training, more detailed checklists and runbooks for the deployment of content and of course, automation wherever possible to avoid the potential for manual error,’ Roth says.”
No Current Circa Sports Plans For Illinois Sports Betting Fees, Minimums, But Will Evaluate Market (Sports Betting Dime): “Circa Sports, one of the 10 licensed sports betting operators in Illinois, will sit back and evaluate the market before making any final determinations on how to counteract the state’s recently imposed per bet fee. Jeffrey Benson, Director of Operations for Circa Sports, told Sports Betting Dime the operator will evaluate the Illinois sports betting market as it moves forward, but has no current plans to institute betting fees or betting minimums for customers.”
Missouri Regulators Clear Another Hurdle to Sports Betting Launch (Sports Betting Dime): “The Missouri Gaming Commission cleared another hurdle as the Show-Me State marches towards its late-year sports betting launch. Missouri gaming regulators Thursday held a public hearing on the state’s proposed sports betting rules. Dozens of rules were brought up for discussion, but nobody from the public submitted any comments. While comments were submitted online, a Missouri Gaming Commission spokesperson said they will eventually be available in the state’s final sports betting orders.”
Latest on the gambling tax loss deduction:
You can now trade/bet/speculate/hedge on whether the fix for the federal gambling tax change will pass on Kalshi and Polymarket:
It’s a new market and doesn’t have a ton of volume or open interest yet, but it’s certainly a good potential use of a prediction market as a hedging instrument for pro gamblers.
Republican Tax Bill Is a Losing Deal for Gamblers (NYT, paywall): “The outcries over the new gambling tax that was added to the Senate version of the law reflect the last-minute machinations that took place as Republicans raced to finalize the One Big Beautiful Bill and deliver it to Mr. Trump by July 4. …Mr. Trump, who once owned casinos in Atlantic City, made eliminating taxes on tips a hallmark of his presidential campaign. If the casino industry is squeezed by higher taxes on gamblers, then bellhops, bartenders and waiters could also come under pressure. … The gambling industry was aware of potential changes to gambling deductions as the legislation was being written this spring, but did not mount a fierce resistance as it pushed for other measures such as a higher threshold for reporting slot machine winnings.”
There’s not a ton new in here from a reporting standpoint, and we’re still waiting to learn exactly how this got into the OBBB in the first place. It feels crazy that we still don’t know the origin story in the Senate, with as much mainstream press as it’s gotten. (At least I don’t think I have seen that reported.) The story talks about last-minute machinations but says the “gambling industry was aware…this spring.” Some important context on that from Dan Rosenheck, a reporter for The Economist:
“The AGA did list preserving the gambling deduction in its memo on industry priorities for the OBBB and succeeded in keeping it out of the House bill. I’m not sure when they picked up on it being in the Senate bill — it first appeared in a Finance Committee amendment in mid-June … but I don’t think it was clear that the change was actually going to be included until just before it passed the Senate. By that point the bill was now-or-never, and I presume causing a stink would have put them on Trump’s bad side & reduced the chances of getting it fixed later.”
I’ve written before that it’s fair to argue that alarm bells could have been raised earlier, and/or the industry could have mobilized against it. But the industry’s lobbying wasn’t a zero-sum game just on the deduction.
Big, Beautiful Bill may drive gambling business offshore, casino owner says (KTNV): “Derek Stevens, owner of The D, Golden Gate, Circa and Circa Sports, says a change that allows gamblers to deduct only 90% of their losses (instead of the current 100%) could have serious implications for Las Vegas. ‘This affects everyone in Las Vegas, because this, like I said, will impact jobs,’ Stevens said. ‘This impacts visitation, tourism. It's an important thing that just needs to be corrected.’ Stevens said he's already heard from some of his high-volume clients, who told him that — absent a fix — they will move their gambling business offshore, out of the reach of U.S. taxation…. Stevens says he has spoken with elected officials in his efforts to support returning the deduction to 100% of losses.”
Michael Mizrachi Wins the 2025 World Series of Poker Main Event Title and Achieves Poker Immortality (WSOP): “Displaying one of the most dominant performances in World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event history, Michael ‘The Grinder’ Mizrachi leveraged his decisive chip lead obtained during Day One of the WSOP Main Event Final Table to go the distance and win the 2025 title. Winning the largest piece of the $90,535,500 total prize pool, Mizrachi takes home $10 million along with a Main Event bracelet valued at half a million dollars. From the moment Mizrachi spiked an ace on the river to overcome second-place finisher Robert Wasnock’s ($6,000,000) pocket kings during Day One of the Final Table, Mizrachi carried the momentum all the way to the end to earn himself a banner inside the Horseshoe Las Vegas Event Center. … For the historic achievement of winning his fourth Poker Players Championship as well as the Main Event in the same summer, the now nine-time WSOP bracelet winner was informed by his peers that, via a unanimous vote, he would become the 65th member of the Poker Hall of Fame.”
Carnival Corporation Joins the American Gaming Association as the First Cruise Line Member (press release): “Carnival Corporation, the world's largest cruise company, today announced its membership in the American Gaming Association (AGA), becoming the first cruise operator to join the nation’s leading trade group, which represents the U.S. casino industry. With this historic membership, Carnival Corporation further deepens its longstanding commitment to upholding the highest standards of compliance, including anti-money laundering initiatives and responsible gaming practices.
“Joining the American Gaming Association is an important step in advancing our industry leadership and ensuring we remain at the forefront of responsible gaming and regulatory best practices,” said Marty Goldman, senior vice president of global gaming at Carnival Corporation. “This partnership opens new avenues for collaboration and knowledge-sharing that will directly benefit our guests, team members and the broader Carnival Corporation organization.”
“We’re thrilled to welcome Carnival Corporation to the American Gaming Association. As a global leader in leisure travel and entertainment, they not only bring a unique perspective to our membership but also deepen our network through longstanding partnerships with several existing AGA members,” said Maureen Beddis, senior vice president of membership and events at the American Gaming Association. “Their commitment to delivering world-class gaming experiences at sea complements our efforts to promote innovation, collaboration, and responsible gaming across the industry. We look forward to working together to strengthen our collective impact.”
Financial Analyst Projects End to Las Vegas ‘Sluggish’ Visitation (Covers): “Despite Las Vegas being in the midst of a downward tourist attendance trend, a financial analyst foresees a return to productivity coming. Visitations to America’s gambling Mecca have taken a hit recently. Year-over-year attendance has declined in each of the last five months, leading to lower gaming volumes and changes in business models for major hotel and casino operators like MGM and Caesars. Citizens Senior Equity Research Analyst Jordan Bender described visitation as ‘sluggish’ in his recent ‘Brick and Mortar Casino 2025 Preview.’ However, Bender doesn’t forecast a bleak future outlook. He said convention season and group business in upcoming quarters could be at 15-20% in Las Vegas, ‘potentially achieving a record level in 2026.’”
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The Cashout
Here’s what’s on tap for paid subscribers:
June sports betting numbers update (adding New Jersey, Pennsylvania and more)
Online casino for June
ESPN Bet opt-out watch
App download rankings
June US sports betting update
June (and Q2 as a result) is still looking very good for sportsbooks, with hold at 12.9%. That’s where it was last week before the new states reported their data. That’s still on track to be the highest hold in the history of US sports betting.
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