The Current: Are States Threatening 'The Stability Of The Global Financial System' By Challenging Prediction Markets?
Gambling news roundup: Republicans reject Titus' FAIR BET Act amendment; California Senate passes sweepstakes ban.
The Current is a weekly report on a new development in the gambling industry from The Closing Line.
Of course states aren’t threatening anything but sports betting at prediction markets. But I guess you are expecting an entire newsletter, and you want to know where the hell that headline came from.
Every time I think the rhetoric from Kalshi and prediction markets has reached an all-time high, they find a way to outdo themselves. Kalshi’s head of corporate development, Sara Slane, posted this on LinkedIn:
You can also read it here if you want.
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This is, of course, a ridiculous assertion. No one with an ounce of common sense thinks the states’ legal battles with Kalshi will actually result in what she is implying. A look at me after I read that post:
The states are largely fine with prediction markets:
If they stayed out of sports betting.
If they stuck with everything else that prediction markets offer (with the possible exception of Nevada and political betting).
Will the global economy cease to exist if Kalshi can’t take touchdown props on Thursday’s game between the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers? Somehow, I think the world might survive that possibility.
I guess I could write more, but mostly I just wanted to point out the absurdity. The derivatives market will carry on just fine if prediction markets can’t offer sports betting. Even ChatGPT could see through it when I asked about the validity of Slane’s argument:
The jurisdictional fight (federal vs. state regulation) is important for the future of prediction markets in the U.S., but it’s not credible to say that it threatens the stability of the global financial system. That framing is rhetorical overstatement, likely intended to influence courts and regulators by tying prediction markets to broader financial stability.
Gambling news roundup
No big prediction markets news today, but do check out the roundup at The Event Horizon that will publish later today. I am doing my best to keep the bigger themes and news from prediction markets here, and keeping the things that people care about more granularly over at my other newsletter. We’ll see how that goes!
Titus’ attempt to add FAIR BET Act to defense bill goes nowhere (SBC Americas): “The effort to push through a measure to restore the 100% gambling loss tax deduction as a fast-tracked amendment to the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has failed, says the proposal’s chief proponent. Nevada Democrat Rep. Dina Titus posted on social media on Tuesday, Sept. 9 to disclose that the Republican-majority House Rules Committee rejected her proposed add-on to the NDAA, which is a bill passed every fiscal year setting national security and defense policies for the federal government.”
Wagers on touchdowns, strikeouts and even penalties: States eye limits on prop bets (Stateline): “Worried that those bets can worsen problem gambling and threaten the integrity of sports, Hutchison, a Democrat, introduced legislation to ban New Jersey gambling licensees from offering live bets on individual plays during sporting events. That bill illustrates growing state interest in regulating proposition bets, commonly called prop bets, a form of sports betting that is popular with fans but worrisome for sports leagues and state officials nationwide.”
I point everyone trying to limit state-regulated prop betting to all the places where you can bet props now, such as prediction markets, fantasy pick’em, offshore and sweepstakes. Unless you have a holistic way to deal with all of these things, you’re not actually banning anything.
California Senate unanimously approves sweepstakes ban (SBC Americas): “California Assembly Bill 831 is headed back to the Assembly, but in a state much different than it left the chamber. The state Senate unanimously approved what is now a ban on California sweepstakes gambling on Monday. Assemblyman Avellino Valencia’s gut-and-amend AB 831 passed unanimously on the Senate floor by a 36-0 vote on Sept. 8. Since being reworked, it is yet to receive a single no vote at any stage of the legislative process. It must pass in the Assembly Governmental Organization Committee and then gain majority support on the chamber floor if it is to reach Gov. Gavin Newsom’s desk. Sept. 12, is the deadline for bills to pass before the two-year legislative session adjourns for its mid-session recess. Oct. 12 is the final day for Newsom to sign or veto bills passed before the deadline.”
Press release from the Social Gaming Leadership Alliance (from Monday): “Today, members of Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation, the Sherwood Valley Rancheria of Pomo Indians, the Mechoopda Indian Tribe of Chico Rancheria and Big Lagoon Rancheria gathered outside the State Capitol in Sacramento to protest Assembly Bill 831 (AB 831). If passed, the bill would limit economic opportunities available to less wealthy tribes in the state by banning legitimate online social games using sweepstakes promotions. It would also eliminate more than $1 billion of existing economic activity generated by the industry in California, and close off a potential new revenue source for the state via sensible, modern regulation and taxation.”
Cleveland Guardians Deserve Closure Regarding Gambling Allegations (Forbes): “Obviously Major League Baseball and their investigators must have evidence to pursue their gambling investigations into Ortiz and Clase. If not, why disrupt and potentially permanently alter the careers, the livelihood, the reputations and the futures of two major league pitchers, their families, their team, and their fans? Isn’t almost two months of investigation enough to find cause or dismiss the matter? If two months isn’t enough time, how long will it take to reach a conclusion on these two investigations? Can it go in indefinitely?”
ESPN BET Applies For Missouri Online Sports Betting License as Deadline Draws Nears (Sports Betting Dime): The market for Missouri sports betting apps is rounding into shape as the application deadline for licenses draws near. PENN Sports Interactive, and its ESPN BET online sports betting platform, is the latest to submit an online sports betting license application to the Missouri Gaming Commission. Five operators have submitted applications so far, while the commission has already awarded two untethered online sports betting licenses to DraftKings and Circa Sports. Operators hoping to launch day one of Missouri sports betting must submit their applications in full by Friday, Sept. 12.”
VCU Research in Action: Understanding and treating problem gambling (VCU News): “Elizabeth Childress doesn’t remember a time from her youth when she wasn’t gambling. ‘I gambled my life, my freedom and my money every day,’ Childress said. By the age of 18, Childress was also using substances and drinking with friends, a path that quickly led to felony convictions and time in a maximum-security prison where her days were consumed in an endless cycle of gambling. ‘When I was incarcerated, every day we would play spades and gamble everything from noodles to meal trays,’ she said. Now, thanks to the efforts of a Virginia Commonwealth University professor and her colleagues, researchers are seeking to not only better understand stories such as Childress’ but to better understand how to help her and others who suffer from gambling addiction, a condition that is still too often overlooked and understudied.”
UNLV International Gaming Institute’s Dr. Kasra Ghaharian On AI Impact (Casino Reports): “Dr. Kasra Ghaharian, the director of research at UNLV’s International Gaming Institute. While Ghaharian’s work and research touches on numerous aspects of the gambling world, including machine learning, consumer protection, and payments modernization, this conversation hones in on one of the more controversial topics in the industry: artificial intelligence.”
Avenir casino bid in New York now in committee’s hands following second hearing (IGB): “The latest step in the race for a downstate New York casino licence came Monday night, when Silverstein Properties’ Avenir proposal was the first of the eight bids to field its second public hearing. Approximately 200 speakers went before the project’s community advisory committee (CAC) throughout the nearly five-hour hearing, held at the Javits Center. The six-member CAC has now fulfilled its obligation of hosting two hearings, but it may choose to host more if deemed necessary before 30 September.”
FanDuel’s Trusted Voices: Conversations About Betting is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs, risks and proxy betting. The program is led by retired professional basketball player Randy Livingston and his wife, basketball agent Anita Smith, who share their personal stories related to problem gambling, with the hope of preventing others from experiencing similar harms. Learn more and join the conversation here.