The Current: BetMGM Calls Out Sweepstakes, Won't Be 'First Mover' In Prediction Markets
Gambling news roundup: White House is responsible for stopping vote on CFTC nominee; golf continues to be Kalshi's biggest market this summer; DraftKings pays $450K fine in Massachusetts.
The Current is a weekly report on a new development in the gambling industry from The Closing Line.
BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt talked about sweepstakes and prediction markets in the online gambling company’s Q2 financial update. The quick takeaways:
MGM says sweepstakes casinos should be illegal and is glad states are pushing back.
BetMGM is monitoring prediction markets very closely, but it’s not getting into PMs any time soon. “…We are not going to be a first mover in this domain,” Greenblatt said.
Below is the full transcript of the exchanges regarding prediction markets:
Question: First question, Adam, I think you mentioned the — something you're monitoring is the impact of adjacent businesses on the sector. Could you maybe just talk a little bit more about this and how you kind of envision this evolving ecosystem with regard to risks and opportunities?
And then just for my follow-up, at that $500 million EBITDA level that you said you can envision in the medium term, how do you kind of think about margins? You were helpful with flow through and some of the parameters and marketing costs, but kind of any -- any kind of bridge to kind of getting to a normalized margin, how you think about it. Thanks.
Adam Greenblatt: Thanks, Dan. I'll let Gary take the second part of your question.
I'll just deal with the first, which are the adjacent activities or the adjacent sectors, risks and opportunities associated with that. Really, in my mind, those are -- that's a reference to both the sweeps and the prediction markets.
Look, we're pretty clear — or we are clear that we believe sweeps should be illegal iGaming, and it's bad for the regulated sector. It's bad for state revenues. It's bad for players.
And so, we are delighted to see lots of states now — increasingly, not lots, increasingly states adopting just legislation against the sweeps industry, which — what we would love to see and what we are certainly advocating for is more regulated iGaming states, I think BetMGM more than anyone stands to gain relatively most in the event that it happens. And we fully anticipate, over time, that to happen.
But the message to our lawmakers is the sweeps activity is happening anyway. As I've said, the good guys aren't benefiting. And so, we would like to see that situation unwind and in fact reverse.
In relation to prediction markets, we are monitoring this very, very closely — very closely means daily, including all the court proceedings, including the new entrants returning to the U.S. that are going to fight it out with the very vocal — most vocal incumbent … assessing daily the wide range of possible outcomes. And what I will say is that we won't be caught flatfooted, but nothing to talk about today.
Question: … And then as my follow-up, Adam, just to kind of build off your high-level comment on prediction markets, if we take a step back here, it looks like there's a bit of a land grab going on maybe the technology side of what's happening there. I'm curious for your views on that and sort of maybe either your thoughts on moat in that business or your thoughts on sort of ability or desire to be a first mover, especially when it comes to licensing in that business, if again there's sort of limited real estate available to get access to that and maybe a time delay, if you choose different path. Thanks.
Adam Greenblatt: Yes. Let me be clear… we have the ability. We do not have the desire to be a first mover. Our state regulators have been very clear. Our tribal partners have been very clear. Thirty-four states' attorneys general have been very clear. They do not believe prediction markets should serve -- should offer sports contracts because that is sports betting. They would argue that that is sports betting.
What I will also say is that the predictions market and these types of markets, generally, are very much liquidity driven, right? So… your point about, does first mover have an advantage? I think the advantage is conferred by liquidity, not who gets there first. And so, the new entrants to the markets -- the new entrant, the returner to the U.S. with their planned ownership of technology and understood scale would be formidable.
And the likes of the Robinhoods and the Cryptos and the Coinbases whose ability to invest and grow a liquidity pool far out exceeds, I think, sports betting market incumbents to the point where I feel like it's the prediction markets operators who are more likely to have an outsized market share than those trying to get into the market new.
And so, I don't think we have a -- BetMGM has a right to win… trying to become a leader in what is a very different market. From a regulatory perspective, very different. From a technical perspective, from a risk management perspective, just very different.
And so, we are -- as I said, I know, an FTM license to become a partner to a platform is a 12-month process, right? So, we won't be surprised by -- frankly, we won't be surprised by anything in this domain.
And as I said before, we are following it very, very closely. We are not underestimating the possibility that this becomes a meaningful factor in our sector. But we are not going to be a first mover in this domain.
If you need a decoder ring, I believe he’s talking about Kalshi on the “vocal incumbent” and Polymarket as the “returner to the US.”
Other things of note in the financial update:
BetMGM increased guidance to net revenue of at least $2.7 billion and EBITDA of at least $150 million.
That’s up from $100 million EBITDA guidance just last month.
2Q Net Revenue up 36% YoY and EBITDA of $86 million
1H Net Revenue up 35% YoY and EBITDA of $109 million
Despite being pushed for a podium position in US sports betting by Fanatics, BetMGM reported “Strong Online Sports performance with 2Q revenues +56% (1H +61%) driven by refined player marketing and management and strengthened product.”
For what it’s worth, sportsbooks are also seeing historic hold in June (TCL’s The Cashout, paywall)
Greenblatt from the presser: "BetMGM has seen a strong first half of the year, delivering significant revenue and EBITDA growth that is underpinned by the ongoing execution of our strategic plan. The momentum we have built since the second half of 2024 accelerated through the first half of 2025. Our iGaming business continues to deliver new records as we showed why BetMGM is the go-to destination for all players, and in Online Sports, our refined player targeting and management capabilities have driven strong engagement and player KPIs across the board. BetMGM is healthier than it has ever been, a testament to the hard work of our teams and colleagues across the business. Our stronger than expected performance through 1H 2025 positions us well for the rest of the year, reinforcing our confidence in the future and the many opportunities ahead."
Full presser here. More coverage from Legal Sports Report here.
FanDuel’s Trusted Voices: Conversations About Betting is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs, risks and proxy betting. The program is led by retired professional basketball player Randy Livingston and his wife, basketball agent Anita Smith, who share their personal stories related to problem gambling, with the hope of preventing others from experiencing similar harms. Learn more and join the conversation here.
Gambling news roundup
Committee Vote On CFTC Nominee Shelved Again (The Event Horizon): “Brian Quintenz was taken off of a meeting Senate committee agenda for a second time, and it's not clear whether he will get a vote before the August recess.”
Further reporting from several outlets said that the call came from the Trump administration, including this from Politico Pro (paywall): “The White House asked the Senate Agriculture Committee to delay a vote on Brian Quintenz’s nomination to be CFTC chair, a spokesperson for the panel said. … A White House official said Quintenz is still Trump's nominee. Quintenz — a former CFTC commissioner who has worked for the last several years at the venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz — stands to take over the agency just as it prepares to take on new authority in the cryptocurrency market.”
The possibility of a “recess appointment” by the president for Quintenz while the Senate is out of session in August looms as a possibility, as well.
Kalshi Volume Report: Golf Is Top Betting Sport Despite No Major Tourney (The Event Horizon): “Golf was the largest driver of trading at Kalshi last week, as sports accounted for approximately two-thirds of the volume at the prediction market platform. Here’s a look at the top 20 markets last week (July 21-27):”
The golf market at Kalshi was bolstered by the fact that Robinhood also allowed trading/betting on it via its relationship with Kalshi.
“DraftKings Fined $450K in Massachusetts For Prohibited Credit Card Bets (Sports Betting Dime): “The Massachusetts Gaming Commission has officially reached a conclusion of a DraftKings noncompliance incident that stretched back to 2023. The commission levied a $450,000 fine to the Massachusetts-based gaming company for improperly accepting 1,160 bets funded by credits cards from March 10, 2023, through Feb. 14, 2024 for a total handle of $83,667.92. The fine is the largest the commission has levied upon a licensed online sports betting operator since launching sports betting in 2023.”
New York judge agrees DraftKings’ deposit bonus did not mislead (SBC Americas): A federal judge in New York has dismissed a class-action lawsuit that alleged that DraftKings‘ offer of a deposit bonus of up to $1,000 was ‘deceptive.’ Margo K. Brodie, the chief judge of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York issued a ruling on July 28 that plaintiff Nerye Aminov failed to provide a legal basis for the lawsuit. Brodie ultimately found that any ‘reasonable’ customer would have understood the terms of the promotion, which DraftKings had clearly stated.”
Prime Sports enters third online market with debut in Kentucky (SBC Americas): “Prime Sports is expanding its reach by entering a new online sports betting market. The New Jersey-based sports betting operator announced on Tuesday the launch of online wagering in Kentucky bringing its reach to three markets across America. Prime debuted in the Bluegrass State after being approved for a sports betting license by the Kentucky Horse Racing and Gaming Corporation’s board of directors in 2024.”
The New Normal: Prediction Markets in Real Time – What Tribes Need to Know Now (Webcast, Wednesday at 1 pm Eastern): “The landscape around prediction markets is shifting fast. On Monday, Brian Quintenz appeared before the Senate for his confirmation hearing to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), signaling a potentially pivotal moment for how these markets are regulated. At the same time, a coalition of California tribes has filed suit against Kalshi and Robinhood, challenging the legality of prediction-based contracts. And Polymarket is making headlines with its return to the U.S. market, raising urgent questions about jurisdiction and enforcement. Joining us for this timely conversation is Chris Gerlacher, political analyst with Prediction News. We’ll break down the implications of Quintenz’s testimony, the legal strategy behind the California tribal lawsuit, and what Polymarket’s reentry signals for the future of online prediction markets. As these platforms push deeper into regulated space, tribes need to understand what’s happening now, what’s at stake, and how to prepare for what’s next. This is a conversation about power, policy, and protecting tribal interests in real time.”
Chumba Casino, VGW Sites To Start New Jersey Sweeps Phase-Out On July 29 (Sweepsy): “VGW, the influential owner of Chumba Casino, LuckyLand Slots, and Global Poker, has alerted players in New Jersey to its plans to shut down sweepstakes operations in that state. Per an email sent out this week, VGW will begin “phasing out” the Sweeps Coins options on its sites on July 29 — but players will still be able to play social casino games with Gold Coins.”
“We understand this news may be disappointing,” the email reads, “and want to assure you that this decision wasn’t made lightly — it was carefully considered based on several business factors.”
Georgia House Holds First Sports Betting, Gambling Study Meeting (Legal Sports Report): “Georgia lawmakers have stalled on sports betting legalization talks for years, but a new discussion started up this week. Legislators held the first meeting of the House Study Committee on Gaming in the State of Georgia on Monday. The committee will hold meetings through the fall to discuss topics like Georgia sports betting. The committee largely discussed casino gambling during the first meeting.”
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