The Current: Why People Are Betting On Bronny James To Be Rookie Of The Year
TCL will offer a short piece on something new in the US gambling space in The Current every Tuesday.
There is a ton of interest in Bronny James — the son of superstar LeBron James — ahead of the start of the NBA season tonight. The Los Angeles Lakers play their opener tonight, meaning it will likely be the first time a father and a son ever take the court together in a regular-season NBA game.
That interest has spilled over into sports betting, with more bets on Bronny to win the league’s rookie of the year than any other player, per ESPN.
The interesting thing: There’s really very little chance that James wins that award. It seems pretty unlikely he will even be one of the rotation players off the bench after the season gets underway. The odds of course reflect his long odds at anywhere from 250- to 1000-1. It takes some imagination to come up with scenarios where he could win.
The over-under on Bronny’s points tonight is at 0.5 or 1.5 at most sportsbooks — if they are even offering the market. To create a narrative that he is going to be a real threat to win the award, you have to believe he will go from barely playing (or not playing at all) to becoming a top bench performer.
So why are people betting on Bronny? Here are some of the possible explanations:
People like long shots. They like lottery tickets. They like the idea of betting a little to win a lot. A couple of dollars is immaterial vs. the dream of turning an almost insignificant sum into a larger pile of money. It’s why parlays are now one of the dominant ways to bet in the US. A bet on Bronny is a lottery ticket.
People think it’s rigged. I don’t know exactly how this version of “everything’s rigged” will go, but there are a significant number of people who think sports are rigged to create certain outcomes. It’s insane, but it exists. Here, people probably think LeBron will put his thumb on the scale to get more playing time for his son and that will somehow manifest in him winning the award. Let’s also not forget that lots of people were betting on Bronny to be picked No. 1 overall, which was an even more ridiculous wager than him winning rookie of the year.
People like to bet on players they know. The average bettor is not motivated by “being sharp” or finding value in a market. They like to have a sweat on a bet, and that bet is made more interesting if you know the person you are betting on. The rookie class is not full of lots of household names; current favorite Zach Edey is easily the best-known player on the board other than James.
Anyway, there is a constant drumbeat in some gambling circles that bettors care about prices, and they want to learn to become sharp bettors. But reality tells us the opposite. Most people bet to be entertained, and in the hopes of winning a lot of money.
If Bronny ends up winning, I’ll delete this post. Kidding. Probably.
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