The Current: Could Polymarket Go Live With PrizePicks (And Others) Soon?
The prediction market gets a new green light from the CFTC. Gambling news roundup: Nevada judge rules against Kalshi; DraftKings launches Spanish-language experience.
The Current is a weekly report on a new development in the gambling industry from The Closing Line.
The actual news here is a bit more in the weeds than the subject line of this newsletter portends. So let’s start with the news and then explain what this means for Polymarket and the expansion of prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission amended Polymarket’s “order of designation” on Monday, allowing the prediction market to work with futures commission merchants (FCMs) to list contracts. Before, Polymarket could only offer direct access to users. (Polymarket’s US-facing app is currently in beta and live in the US prior to a full launch.)
On July 9, the CFTC issued a “designation order” to QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, prohibiting it from working with FCMs. Here’s the full “amended order of designation” from the CFTC on Monday and then the relevant excerpt (I promise we’ll get to the more exciting part soon):
WHEREAS, the Designation Order includes a provision stating that the Exchange “may not permit any futures commission merchant to intermediate any transactions or carry accounts for customers executing trades on, or pursuant to the rules of QC Exchange unless this Order of Designation has been amended to permit futures commission merchants to carry customer accounts” (the “Subject Provision”) …
…the Subject Provision in the Designation Order is vacated and superseded by this Amended Order of Designation…
The tl;dr version is that Polymarket can now work with FCMs. Why should you, the person reading this newsletter, care?
This means any market listed on Polymarket could be listed with any current or future intermediary that is an FCM under the CFTC. This is how Robinhood works with Kalshi, for instance.
Most proximately, it would pave the way to go live with PrizePicks, which is an FCM. It announced a deal with Polymarket, and then went live with Kalshi’s markets last week. The Closing Line reached out to PrizePicks, which said it had no update on its plans to go live with Polymarket’s markets.
It gives the other prediction markets more competition in the B2B space in the short term. Crypto.com has signed a number of deals of late to offer its markets, while Kalshi appears poised to be integrated with Coinbase.
It took only a few months for Polymarket to achieve this, which is extremely fast in CFTC-land.
One small footnote on all of this: Kalshi trading volume is down since its launch with PrizePicks.
Ifrah Law has been at the center of advancing iGaming in the U.S., shaping groundbreaking legislation, leading precedent-setting cases, and guiding clients that span the iGaming ecosystem through every phase of their business journey. Learn more at IfrahLaw.com.
Gambling news roundup
Nevada judge dissolves preliminary injunction: A federal judge in Nevada has overruled his earlier granting of a preliminary injunction to Kalshi. Kalshi had sued to stop any enforcement by the state, which alleges that Kalshi is offering sports betting illegally and without a license in the state. Here’s Judge Andrew Gordon from the order:
“Kalshi relies on a strained reading of the already convoluted Commodities Exchange Act (CEA) in an attempt to evade state regulation. Kalshi’s interpretation would require all sports betting across the country to come within the jurisdiction of the CFTC rather than the states and Indian tribes. That interpretation upsets decades of federalism regarding gaming regulation, is contrary to Congress’ intent behind the CEA, and cannot be sustained.”
Whole ruling here:
Earlier, Judge Gordon did not grant Crypto.com a preliminary injunction in its case against the state, leading to the revisiting of the Kalshi preliminary injunction.
Kalshi has filed for an emergency motion to stay the ruling pending an appeal. You can see that here:
Here’s analysis from Closing Line and Event Horizon contributor Andrew Kim, a partner at Goodwin Law:
“Judge Gordon doubles down on the ruling that he reached in the Crypto.com case. Not only does he stick with his prior conclusion that ‘occurrence’ doesn’t mean ‘outcome,’ he dives into whether Kalshi’s contracts are ‘associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.’ His decision is the first to attempt a serious analysis of what that phrase means.
It’s a thoughtful decision, but by no means bulletproof. Judge Gordon is clearly troubled by the fact that the prediction markets’ interpretation of the word ‘swap’ means you can trade on almost anything. He’s said that over and over again — and he’s letting his heartburn about the reach of the law shape his interpretation of it.
To me, the latest Kalshi decision suffers from the same problem as the Crypto.com decision: It reads like an outcome-driven decision that’s vulnerable to reversal.
Consider the following: Judge Gordon gives us a number of reasons why the definition of ‘swap’ shouldn’t be read broadly, but he doesn’t engage with the text of the statute itself. What does ‘associated with’ mean? He says it means ‘the event or contingency is itself *inherently* joined or connected with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequences,’ but where is he getting ‘inherently’ from? If you look up the word ‘associated’ in the dictionary (no joke, statutory interpretation starts with dictionaries), it’s a broadly defined concept — joining together, a relationship, a connection. There’s no requirement that the relationship or connection be direct or ‘inherent.’
Or, consider the fact that Judge Gordon mentions the legal principle of, ‘I know it when I see it.’ ‘I know it when I see it’ is a pithy turn of phrase, but it’s no way to interpret a statute.
Judge Gordon also doesn’t explain why it’s right to paint all contracts with the same brush. He was skeptical about certain ‘prop bets’ having ‘inherent’ financial or economic consequences, but what about contracts for tentpole events? This is why I’ve long said the swaps question is a trap — because it doesn’t neatly resolve the preemption question at the heart of all of these prediction markets cases.
The Ninth Circuit will eventually weigh in on whether Judge Gordon is right. The question is how much of a fight there’ll be to get there. It’s possible Nevada will want to be aggressive in enforcing its laws — Kalshi’s just filed a motion for a stay pending appeal, in which it claims that Nevada ‘intend[s] to initiate a criminal prosecution.’ A concurrent state enforcement action could make things incredibly messy and complicated; a stay would maintain the status quo by putting the dissolution on pause.
NHL Commissioner On Prediction Market Deals: ‘It Gives Us Control’ (The Event Horizon): “NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman talked about prediction markets on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Tuesday, explaining the league’s rationale for getting into business with Kalshi and Polymarket. The most interesting thing he said about the deals is that ‘…it gives us control, because we have the ability to take down any contracts that we don’t think are appropriate.’”
DraftKings Launches Spanish-Language Experience for its Online Sportsbook and Casino (press release): DraftKings Inc. today announced the launch of a Spanish-language experience available within the DraftKings Sportsbook & Casino app. This new functionality marks a significant step in DraftKings’ ongoing effort to deliver a product uniquely tailored to each of its customers’ individual preferences.
“Today, Spanish-speaking players represent a growing segment of DraftKings’ customer base,” said Corey Gottlieb, Chief Product Officer at DraftKings. “By bringing Spanish-language functionality to our best-in-class product, we’re creating a more intuitive experience for our customers and expanding our total addressable market. This is consistent with our commitment to delivering the most authentic, personalized product for everyone.”
This Spanish-language experience will roll out initially to select existing customers in the U.S. and Ontario where DraftKings operates and will expand to everyone in the coming weeks. People whose mobile device language is set to Spanish will automatically see the DraftKings app primarily in Spanish after updating, streamlining the transition without any extra steps required.
This functionality will eventually flow throughout the entire customer journey, including account onboarding, navigation, betting content, gameplay, promotions, dedicated customer support, and Responsible Gaming Center tools and resources.
Illinois politicians call Chicago’s sports betting tax idea ‘deeply problematic’ (SBC Americas): “A group of 29 Illinois Democrats, including two influential House committee chairs, have written to the Chicago City Council to urge members not to support Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s proposed city tax on online sports betting. In a letter addressed to the elected members of council, House Gaming Committee Chair Rep. Daniel Didech and House Revenue Committee Chair Curtis Tarver called the idea of adding yet another layer of tax onto online sportsbooks in Chicago “a flawed policy that sets a poor precedent [and] provides minimal fiscal benefit.”
How Is Sports Betting Playing Out for States? It’s Complicated. (Governing): “Awerkamp argues that Kansas rushed to legalize its sports betting program without taking care to ensure it would generate meaningful revenue. He says the bill was primarily written by the casinos and gaming industry, for their own benefit. …”
“Kansas’ situation isn’t unique. Other states are also having doubts about whether their sports betting programs — legalized in a rush of legislation over the last several years — are generating the promised benefits. The country has seen an uptick in problematic gambling behaviors, especially among young men, and government coffers aren’t always receiving the expected padding.”
Skill Games Make It To Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court (Casino Reports): “So-called ‘skill games’ have been a source of debate in Pennsylvania for years, centering around one particular question: Are they gambling? Whether one believes skill games qualify as gambling machines or not, in part because there are no safety regulations for them, the games can pose risks to players. The issue of the legality of the slot-like machines under Pennsylvania’s gaming laws reached the state’s Supreme Court last Thursday, when justices heard arguments from both sides. The case was brought to the court as a result of appeals by the state attorney general’s office and the Department of Revenue.”
Proxy betting and underage access
Randy and Anita describe proxy betting — a prohibited activity involving placing wagers on behalf of someone else, or using another person’s account for placing wagers. This clip explains different examples of proxy betting, noting that it can be an avenue for underage access to gambling. To learn more about proxy betting and resources, visit Conversations About Betting.
Trusted Voices is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs and risks.
Pablo Torre: Legal gambling could spell end of sports’ ‘cultural supremacy’ as fans root for payouts rather than teams (Awful Announcing): “As more scandals lead to real-life consequences for alleged perpetrators in and around pro sports — including but not limited to the recent arrest of Terry Rozier and Chauncey Billups in the NBA — Torre said in a recent interview that he is worried that the very nature of sports fandom could be at risk.”
“Not because the outcomes of games could be in question (though that is always a risk), but because of how sports leagues are reorienting themselves as businesses. Torre said on The Atlantic’s Galaxy Brain podcast that he fears that as the relationships between sportsbooks and sports teams and leagues deepen, the message to fans will be to root for their own financial fortunes by way of winning bets more so than the teams or players they are proximate to geographically or enjoy watching.”
“Live sports feel real … I’ve always said sports are fascinating and, for me, irresistible because it feels like humiliation is on the line in every sporting event,” Torre explained to host Charlie Warzel.
Study Links Gambling-like Video Games to Teens Engaging in Real-money Gambling (PlayUSA): “Researchers from KU Leuven and the University of Ghent surveyed over 2,000 Belgian youths aged 10 to 17 to investigate the connection between gambling-like video game features and real gambling behavior. Conducted in two phases over two years, the study found that teens exposed to gambling-like elements in games were statistically more prone to gamble with actual money later. Elements like virtual casinos, prize wheels, and loot boxes featured heavily across gaming platforms, with boys more likely to engage than girls.”
Why Las Vegas Sands’ quest for a Texas casino continues despite being blocked for years (iGB): “Following recent stock declines from Flutter Entertainment, Las Vegas Sands has again claimed the title of the world’s most valuable gambling company. The Asian-focused casino operator now boasts a market cap of $44.2 billion. Yet its biggest US growth dream, a Texas casino, is still far from its reach despite years of lobbying and millions spent. With Texas lawmakers only convening in odd years, 2025 was a pivotal point in Sands’ expansion efforts. Sands’ controlling shareholder, Miriam Adelson, quadrupled her lobbying spend for this year’s session compared to 2023. Sands’ longtime government relations chief Andy Abboud told iGB in October 2024 that the chances of Texas gambling expansion were ‘greater than 50%.’”
The latest podcast from Gaming News Canada:
Ebaka Games brings chaos and soul to iGaming (press release): “New studio Ebaka Games has entered the iGaming market with a clear mission to break the copy-paste cycle by creating original titles built on emotion, distinctive mechanics and the fearless experimentation our industry demands. It launches with five instant games. Each is crafted for free-spirited and daring players and operators seeking exclusive content. Another five games will join the portfolio soon. Ebaka Games stands for big wins, hardcore Ebaka modes with ultra-high volatility, a memorable mascot, and a vibrant style.
“We’re creating gripping games that push boundaries. We have no interest in reskins and clones. Ebaka Games is here to bring new meaning and revive the emotion in online games. We’re not for everyone, but we’ll be the go-to choice for those who get it.” says Ebaka Games CEO, Vitalii Zalievskyi.
The Ebaka Games philosophy is built on the principle of “chaos and soul”. For players, our product gives them a reason to stay, recommend, discuss, and return. Value here is measured not only by RTP, but by a commitment to improving the user experience through feedback. Ebaka is created by players for players, making every partner and user an influencer of the product.
The iGaming world has grown stagnant: players are bored, and old mechanics are not enough to engage them. Dmitry Belianin joins Ebaka Games as an investor and co-founder to change this. He is also the co-founder of Blask, Strategic Advisor and Partner at Traffic Squad, and Managing Partner at Already Media.
Currently, the games are available exclusively on Menace.com.
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