The Current: DOJ Probe Of Polymarket Is Over, Bloomberg reports
Gambling news roundup: BetMGM, Hard Rock require minimum bets in Illinois; Wimbledon dominates trading at Kalshi; Tennessee fines offshore gambling sites; California ACLU opposes sweepstakes ban bill
The Current is a weekly report on a new development in the gambling industry from The Closing Line.
Investigations into prediction market platform Polymarket by the US government are now over, according to a report this morning from Bloomberg.
From Bloomberg (paywall):
A pair of US investigations into crypto-betting platform Polymarket that went full-throttle in the waning days of the Biden administration are now being shut down just as Donald Trump’s White House seeks to give the industry a boost.
The predictions exchange received formal notice earlier this month from the US Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission that the probes had ended, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential inquiries.
The revelation comes after an FBI raid of the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan in November of 2024.
What this means for Polymarket’s status as a potential CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US remains to be seen. However, the resolution of the investigations would be a necessary first step for a return to the US.
A bit of background on Polymarket, prediction markets, and the US:
Polymarket technically doesn’t serve the US under a settlement with the CFTC in 2022.
However, some amount of users find workarounds to use Polymarket from the US; that is at least a piece of what the DOJ and the CFTC were reportedly looking at.
As soon as Trump was elected, Coplan began signaling that he planned to return Polymarket to the US.
While the Trump administration has been supportive of prediction markets — especially because the markets predicted his 2024 election win — the relationship with Polymarket remains potentially complicated. Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor for Kalshi, and incoming CFTC chair Brian Quintenz has been a board member at Kalshi.
Polymarket recently indicated it was raising money for further growth and inked a deal with X (formerly Twitter).
What is clear is that Polymarket wants to return to the US market, officially. Whether the end of these investigations is a first step to making that a reality is less clear.
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Gambling news roundup
Kalshi Volume Report: Wimbledon Was Almost Two-Thirds Of Trading Last Week (The Event Horizon): “Wimbledon was a big winner for Kalshi this past week, with almost two-thirds of all trading taking place around the tennis tournament. Betting on the tennis major accounted for about 63% of all trading from July 6-13. In all, about 82% of all trading volume at Kalshi involved sports. Here’s a look at the top 20 markets in that time period:”
Kalshi Says Its ‘Odds’ Hats and ‘Bet’ Ads Don’t Make It a Gambling App (Sportico): “A Kalshi official said in a statement that the ‘odds” and ‘bet’ advertisements have nothing to do with whether the company offers gambling.
‘Any promotional materials or company correspondence referencing ‘betting’ in no way indicates that Kalshi is anything but a financial platform, or change our regulatory status,’ the official wrote in an email. “In the same way that you can bet on a stock, derivative or a bond, you can bet on markets on Kalshi.”
My hard-hitting analysis: LOL. I will grant you that it doesn’t change the status under CFTC regulation as things stand. But Kalshi is still a betting platform in any other setting or context.
BetMGM To Impose Illinois Minimum Bet Starting Wednesday (InGame): “BetMGM will require a minimum bet of $2.50 in Illinois beginning Wednesday, representing the latest pushback against the per-wager tax the state legislature passed in June for sports betting. The company has not formally announced its plan, but it sent a letter to customers, which was posted Friday on X by a recipient. … Hard Rock Bet confirmed to InGame that it recently implemented a minimum bet of $2 on its Illinois platform.”
Every operator is trying to find ways to defray the cost of the new tax in Illinois. The news comes after FanDuel and DraftKings added 50-cent fees to every wager, and Fanatics added 25-cent fees. Because it’s impossible for operators to make money from small wagers under the new Illinois scheme, raising the minimum is another way to tackle the problem.
Sports Betting Credit Card Ban Moving Forward in Illinois (Covers): “Illinois is getting closer to formally banning the use of credit cards in connection with sports betting. The proposed prohibition on credit card use for sports wagering was published in the July 11 edition of the Illinois Register, one of the steps in the state's rulemaking process.”
Tennessee Issues $250,000 in Fines to 5 Illegal Offshore Sportsbooks (press release): “The Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued $250,000 total in fines to five illegal offshore sportsbooks - $50,000 each to Costa Rica-based BetAnySports, Bookmaker and JazzSports; Panama-based BetOnline; and Curacao-based Everygame. The five illegal books are operating within the borders of Tennessee in violation of the Tennessee Sports Gaming Act, unlawfully accepting wagers without a license. Eradicating illegal sportsbooks and their supporting businesses from Tennessee is a primary focus of the SWC, and this latest round brings the total in fines issued to illegal books to $600,000.’
“The SWC is exploring all avenues with its network of law enforcement to eliminate these bad actors from Tennessee,” Executive Director Mary Beth Thomas said. “Consumers in Tennessee need to be aware that illegal operators will gladly take their money and personal information, and if a consumer does business with an illegal book, they give away their information to criminals.”
California ACLU formally opposes sweepstakes ban (SBC Americas): “ACLU California Action, the state chapter of the organization, posted its opposition to AB831, the bill designed to prohibit sweepstakes gaming operators, suppliers and influencers, on its website. The Senate Public Safety Committee’s summary of the legislation offered the reasoning behind the ACLU’s stance:
“AB 831 would rachet up existing punishments for gambling. Penal Code Section 330 generally prohibits individuals from gambling, punishable by up to six months of incarceration and a $1000 fine. Because of how broadly AB 831’s language sweeps, prosecutors may argue that anyone who participates in an online sweepstakes is directly or indirectly supporting the gambling platform. In essence, AB 831 would double the term of incarceration and increase the maximum fine by 2500% for anyone engaging in online sweepstakes. As affirmed by the Federal Department of Justice, these increased punishments will not deter crime.”
More from a Social & Promotional Games Association press release: “A broad coalition of organizations, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the Association of National Advertisers, whose members include Google, NBCUniversal, and other Fortune 500 companies, has joined the Social & Promotional Games Association (SPGA) in opposing California Assembly Bill 831. Originally introduced through a ‘gut-and-amend’ process, the bill’s broad language has created uncertainty around the legality of common sweepstakes and promotional programs. Consumer advocates and business leaders alike are urging lawmakers to revisit the proposal and clarify its intent to avoid unintended consequences for lawful marketing practices.”
“The SPGA is proud to stand alongside the ACLU, the Association of National Advertisers, and other partners in voicing concerns about AB 831,” said an SPGA spokesperson. “This diverse coalition, including civil liberties advocates, leading businesses, and industry groups, reflects a shared belief that the bill, as written, could have unintended consequences for lawful promotional practices without offering clear consumer protections.”
WWE & Fanatics Betting and Gaming to Produce WWE-Themed Online Casino Games in U.S. (press release): “Today, WWE, part of TKO Group Holdings, and Fanatics Betting and Gaming, a subsidiary of Fanatics, a global digital sports platform, announced an exclusive multi-year licensing agreement for Fanatics Betting and Gaming to produce and distribute WWE-themed online casino games in the United States. Under the terms of this agreement, Fanatics Betting and Gaming will have a license to produce WWE-themed online casino games exclusively for Fanatics Casino, which is available on iOS, Android and web in Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The officially licensed WWE online casino games will launch at the end of July in time for SummerSlam, which takes place across two nights on Saturday, August 2 and Sunday, August 3 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.”
“We are excited to expand our relationship with WWE to now include an exclusive portfolio of WWE-themed online casino games,” said Ari Borod, Chief Business Officer at Fanatics Betting and Gaming. “This is a natural extension of the WWE-Fanatics partnership which already includes global e-commerce, licensed merchandise, memorabilia, as well as producing and distributing a growing lineup of digital shows.”
Citizens: Q2 to be ‘best ever quarter for gaming margins’ (Next.io): “Despite ongoing regulatory challenges and slowing growth in betting volumes, the US online gaming industry is poised to deliver a strong Q2 2025, partly driven by improved sports betting margins, according to Citizens Capital Markets and Advisory. In a recent note, Citizens highlighted that Q2 earnings for online gaming companies are ‘looking good,’ with the quarter potentially marking the best-ever performance for gaming margins.’
At The Cashout (paywall), I’ve noted that June’s hold is historically high, so far, and that Q2 hold overall is strong on the heels of that.
Churchill Downs fighting its own fight for federal gaming oversight (SBC Americas): “Most eyes in the gaming industry are singularly focused on the trio of court cases in which Kalshi is arguing the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) can upend state sports betting law. However, there is a second court case also arguing that a federal piece of legislation means some online gaming apps do not need to adhere to state regulations. In the case of Churchill Downs vs. the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB), the heart of the matter is advance-deposit wagering (ADW) apps such as TwinSpires, which is owned and operated by Churchill Downs.”
iGaming lobbyist calls out Churchill Downs on anti-online casino stance (SBC Americas): “Things got a little testy on a Friday panel between casino operator Churchill Downs’ Senior Director of Government Relations Shannon McCracken and iDEA’s State Advocacy Director John Pappas. McCracken referenced reports which she said suggested that gaming on a phone is 10 times more addictive than brick-and-mortar casinos.”
“It’s a bit shocking to me that we’re in the presence of the largest online gaming company in the country in Churchill Downs,” said Pappas. “They offer TwinSpires in 40-plus states to people 18 and over. It is an online gambling platform. So I guess the question would go back to Ms. McCracken, how are you guys addressing these issues on your online gambling platform that you operate now?”
Greentube extends partnership with Rush Street Interactive into Pennsylvania via BetRivers Platform (press release): “Greentube, the NOVOMATIC Digital Gaming and Entertainment division, has taken another major step in its North American expansion by going live in Pennsylvania with Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (NYSE: RSI) (“RSI”), a leading online casino and sports betting company in the United States and the rest of the Americas. via its BetRivers platform.”
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