The Current: Gambling On The Next Pope Is A Thing I Need To Write About, I Guess
I read a lot of stuff about gambling every day — to keep myself up to date, so I can include news and interesting content with all of you, and to see what kind of trends are out there.
One of those trends — I am (sad? here?) to report — is betting on the next Pope. There are several stories every day talking about betting odds on who will be Pope as the papal conclave begins. A sampling of what’s in search:
I am not linking any of it, but it is easy to find. I have some disparate thoughts on all this in bullet-point fashion.
First, I think it’s important to note you cannot bet on who the next Pope will be at any state-regulated sportsbook in the US. You can bet on it at Kalshi, which is nominally regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. And at Polymarket, which technically does not allow people in the US to trade, but it’s certainly not impossible to bet there from the US.
I think it’s interesting/fascinating that the prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) have largely taken over the PR effort around all this from the offshore sportsbooks, which used to be the only place you could bet on stuff like this. Betting on cultural events seems to be largely the purview of prediction markets, and that change has happened rather quickly.
I keep seeing the idea that there’s a ton of betting activity on who the Pope will be. Is that true? There has been more than $18 million in trading volume at Polymarket, and more than $6 million at Kalshi. Is that a meaningful amount of money being traded/wagered on the next Pope? (If you don’t know what trading volume at Kalshi is, read this.) I mean, this is in the eye of the beholder in some ways. But does that feel like a critical mass of people/money betting on this? I’d argue not.
Pietro Parolin is the current favorite at both prediction markets, but there’s been a decent move toward second-favorite Luis Antonio Tagle in the hours before this newsletter published.
So are the markets able to get us closer to knowing who the Pope will be? Or is the market ebbing and flowing as we get more information and reacting to that? Or is it moving on air? :shrugs: In sports event trading, prediction markets are giving us a look at what the current odds are, but it’s not identifying underdogs winning before it happens (which isn’t surprising at all). If Parolin doesn’t win, we arguably gained nothing terribly value in terms of information from Kalshi and Polymarket. But I am sure someone will claim otherwise, regardless of the outcome.
Is there economic/hedging value in trading on who the next Pope will be? This one is kind of a no-brainer, and I’ll actually be on the prediction markets’ side on this one. There can be a ton of value in trying to trade on the next Pope, from where they are from, from their policy positions and on and on. While I like to make light of prediction markets as actual financial trading instruments in some instances, there’s an actual use case here. That said, I’m also fairly certain most of the people trading on the next Pope are just speculating/betting on the outcome. To wit (I do love the Moneyball reference though):
I wish I had some amazing takeaway from all this. But what I have is:
Some cohort of people want to/like to bet on who the next Pope is.
The prediction markets are displacing offshore here (and that’s not terrible).
Are the markets telling us something interesting/useful? I guess we’ll see.
At the end of the day, it’s all fairly harmless and if people want to do it, have at it. That is where my line on Kalshi has been in recent months: Offer markets that have actual economic impacts and that don’t infringe on the regulated gambling industry. When you stray from those lines, that’s when I have more of a problem… at least without further regulation and contemplation about where all of this is headed.
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Gambling news roundup
Kalshi takes a victory lap on election betting (but don’t call it election betting): Regular readers of TCL saw that Kalshi’s fight against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer election markets appears to be over, barring an unlikely turn of events.
“It was only two months ago that a CFTC lawyer made a court filing in the Kalshi case and attached Nevada’s cease-and-desist letter,” said Ryan Rodenberg, a Florida State University professor, who has followed the litigation since its inception. “My sense is that the other CFTC case in Texas involving PredictIt will settle or be dismissed soon too.” Some backstory here.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour was taking a victory lap — perhaps well-deserved given the history of Kalshi’s court battles — even though many observers figured that the CFTC would give up on this case, given current events: “Election markets are here to stay. Prediction markets have been banned, censored, limited, and pushed out for decades. This win solidifies their right to exist and thrive. It really took a village. Thank you to everyone who was part of this, who stuck with us through the hard times, who traded our markets since early days, who sent countless comment letters, and who fought relentlessly on the frontline alongside Kalshi. I am incredibly grateful and proud. This win is yours as much as ours and it is finally official ❤️”
Oklahoma Sports Betting Coming Down to Wire (Sports Betting Dime): “Two House-approved sports betting bills will have to be approved in the Senate by Thursday, May 8, or the issue will be officially dead in Oklahoma until next year.
However, even if the bills are approved they still face a potential gubernatorial challenge from Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), who has made it very clear that he is not a fan of any of the remaining pieces of Oklahoma sports betting legislation.”
If you are sitting on a ticket for "under 0.5 states to legalize online sports betting in 2025,” I still like your chances.
FanDuel TV's Shiffman Sees Opportunity for Racing (Bloodhorse): “BH: How are fans using these channels along with their FanDuel betting platforms?
MS: Fan engagement and wagering is higher when races are covered on television. FDTV network provides U.S. racing with a place where racing fans can go to watch great racing every day. From there, they often take the next step of having a wager on our betting platforms, which leverage content and handicapping shown on the network. This has been true since the TVG network launched 25 years ago. Our newer channels extend racing's reach, and our goal is to spark and deepen interest in horse racing by connecting new and existing fans with the excitement and stories of the sport through these locations.”
Literally as I put this in here, I got an alert that Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty will not be racing in the next leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes.
The New Normal: How Trump's Policies Are Hitting Tribal Casinos (Webinar, Wednesday, 10 Eastern): “One hundred days into President Trump’s return to office, the business environment is marked by growing uncertainty - and tariffs are once again dominating the conversation. From rising food prices to supply chain disruptions, the effects are being felt across every sector of the U.S. economy, including gaming. In the next episode of The New Normal, we’ll speak with Kristi Jackson, Chairwoman of TFA Capital Partners, about the far-reaching impact of the administration’s trade and tariff policies on both tribal and commercial gaming operations. From construction costs to F&B procurement, we’ll explore how new economic pressures are forcing gaming enterprises to rethink their strategies, adjust forecasts, and confront an increasingly volatile marketplace.”
‘Play’n GO will never supply games to sweepstakes casinos’ - CEO Johan Törnqvist (press release): “Play’n GO, the world’s leading casino entertainment provider, has today announced that the company’s unmatched portfolio of games will never be supplied to so-called ‘sweepstakes casinos’. Play’n GO CEO and Co-Founder Johan Törnqvist, said: ‘Sweepstakes casinos do not operate inside a regulated framework and that’s not something we support. Our commitment to regulated markets is absolute. We will never supply our games to sweepstakes casinos.’ The announcement comes as so-called sweepstakes casinos are increasingly under scrutiny by regulators and lawmakers, especially in the US. Shawn Fluharty, Head of Government Affairs for Play’n GO, added: ‘Sweepstakes casinos threaten the regulated market model that many of us in the industry have worked so hard to achieve, which protects players first and foremost, and delivers much-needed revenue to jurisdictions.’”
It’s an interesting bright line to draw on the vendor side of things. Part of the reason the sweepstakes industry is a messy subject is precisely because a number vendors serve both the regulated and sweepstakes industries.
Latest Stake.us lawsuit includes child of customer as a plaintiff (SBC Americas): “Online gambling brand Stake.us is facing a class action lawsuit in Alabama brought by a mother and her child, claiming the child suffered harm from his mother losing her wages playing on the site. Plaintiffs Laura Hall and her minor child filed a class action complaint against Stake.us alleging the company of running an illegal gambling operation in Alabama as gambling is “constitutionally and statutorily prohibited” in the state.”
Greene Turtle closes one of its sportsbooks (Baltimore Business Journal, paywall): “The sports bar chain launched its sportsbooks to great fanfare less than two years ago, but has already shut one of them down.”
Pastor charged with stealing $135K from church, using it on sports betting, food delivery (Christian Post): “A Maryland pastor has been charged with stealing approximately $135,000 from his church, with him allegedly using the funds on sports betting and food deliveries. Daniel Champ, 42, is charged with theft of over $135,000 and embezzlement from First Baptist Church of Harford County, CBS News affiliate WJZ-TV reported last week.”
If he had done this on Kalshi, would it have been OK in the eyes of God since that’s not “sports betting”? (Written in sarcasm font, please don’t strike me down.)
Fun fact: The pastor for my wedding led the homily with sports betting.
ToonieBet Launches Sportsbook in Ontario (press release): “ToonieBet, Soft2Bet’s flagship online casino and sportsbook for Ontario, has officially launched its sportsbook on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. The platform is tailored specifically for local players, offering a dynamic betting experience with a broad range of sports events and competitive odds. The platform also features personalised promotions and loyalty rewards designed to match the preferences of Ontario’s diverse betting community.”
Announcing the 2025 SBC Sports Betting Hall of Fame inductees (SBC Americas): “SBC is proud to unveil the four industry icons whose lasting legacy and transformative impact on the industry have earned them a coveted spot in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame class of 2025. Inductees into the class of 2025 include:
Chad Millman (Co-Founder, The Action Network)
Shelley White (Former CEO, Responsible Gambling Council (RGC))
Scotty Schelttler (Former Director, Race & Sports, Stardust)
Esmeralda Britton (President, Junta de Protección Social in Costa Rica)”
Um, did Play 'N Go ever provide games to sweeps games operators? Not sure but not to my knowledge and the press release doesnt say they are pulling games from anywhere. So bravo
- great click bait virtue signalling
A rhetorical, but how much of things like this are simply problem gamblers needing to have their fingers in every pie?