The Early Line: A Bad Week For Sweeps; Google & Gambling Affiliates
TCL offers a roundup of recent US gambling news called The Early Line every Monday.
It wasn’t a great week if you’re a sweepstakes operator | There was no regulatory action last week against sweepstakes casinos and sportsbooks (at least that I know of), but there was undoubtedly some negative momentum over Thanksgiving. 1. The Washington Post published a piece that painted the sweepstakes industry in a negative light. 2. The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States introduced its online casino model legislation that included a ban on sweeps. (Also of note: I wrote recently about some trends in sweeps around the launch of one of the newer entries in the space.)
Reading the line: In a vacuum or on their own, neither of these things move the needle that much. The Washington Post story isn’t going to lead to widespread regulatory action; it’s not even the first time WaPo has tackled the subject of sweeps. The model bill is both great and needed, but it’s not clear online casino bills are getting passed anywhere in the near term. The actual problem at the top line: The sweepstakes category is losing control of the narrative, and it’s not clear it’s going to get it back. The big question: Will all of this result in widespread pushback from regulators and/or policymakers, or more importantly pushback in the biggest states (ie California and Texas)? I am still skeptical it will. The bad outcomes for sweeps are far from a fait accompli, but the shift in the conversation — and that the conversation exists at all — continues to trend negatively for sweeps.
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Sand keeps shifting on Google and gambling affiliates | The latest Google update on site reputation abuse has been an interesting time for anyone in affiliation, but particularly in gambling affiliation, since it’s the most valuable form of affiliation on a per-user basis. A couple of interesting reads on this front: 1. A good newsletter on SEO explaining what Google is doing, and why, and what it all means (the post is not just about gambling). 2. A LinkedIn post about gambling affiliate Finixio and how Techopedia.com has been impacted of late.
Reading the line: Gambling affiliation has been turned on its head this year, as deals between gambling affiliates and large online publishers went from ubiquitous to challenging almost overnight. A few takeaways: Authoritative publishers that are trying to do gambling affiliation themselves rather than via third parties may still be in trouble because of the update; some have already been hit with penalties or have been downgraded in search. You might still see authoritative sites strip-mined to take a bunch of gambling affiliation money in a short amount of time moving forward. And sites that do a great job just on the gambling niche are still a good way to attack the market.
You’re not going to win at sports betting | NFL broadcaster Al Michaels said in a CNBC interview that sports bettors aren’t going to win long term. Michaels is famous for veiled references to gambling during broadcasts even before the expansion of sports betting in the US.
Reading the line: While Michaels is certainly telling the truth, it’s also saying the quiet part out loud. It’s mostly interesting coming from a voice of Amazon Prime, which has deals with both DraftKings and the NFL. Both very much want you to gamble more, not less.
Quick hitters
An addendum to the sweeps conversation: Rush Street thinks sweepstakes will help move states toward online casino legalization.
Fanatics Sportsbook is on the rise, but why? More from the EKG Line here. And more from me on the numbers for Fanatics in October (paywalled).
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