The Early Line: ‘DraftKings Predict’ Registered With National Futures Association
Gambling news today: SAFE Bet Act returns; poll on sports betting ads in NJ
TCL offers a roundup of recent US gambling news with analysis called The Early Line every Monday.
“DraftKings Predict” registered with National Futures Association (The Closing Line) | DraftKings has apparently registered a prospective business that would intersect with prediction markets with the National Futures Association. The NFA is the self-regulatory organization for the US derivatives industry. DraftKings Predict is listed as a pending member, and the phone number and address on the listing both belong to DraftKings.
Who has to register with the NFA? “The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) requires certain firms and individuals that conduct business in the derivatives industry to register with the CFTC. CFTC regulations also require, with few exceptions, CFTC registered firms to be NFA Members. The CFTC has delegated registration responsibility to NFA.”
Reading the line: We know precious little about what DraftKings has planned and I won’t speculate too much. A request for comment from DraftKings wasn’t immediately returned. What we do know is that 1. If you were thinking about getting into facilitating trades via prediction markets, this is a step you might take and 2. CEO Jason Robins has talked about prediction markets twice in the past month. More on that background at The Event Horizon.
SAFE Bet Act to be reintroduced in Congress (IGB) | “US congressman Paul Tonko and US senator Richard Blumenthal announced they will hold a press conference in Washington DC Tuesday (March 11) to “reintroduce” the Supporting Affordability and Fairness with Every Bet Act (SAFE Bet Act). The pair initially introduced the federal framework for digital sports betting 12 September. It is one of two federal sports betting proposals circulating on Capitol Hill.“
Reading the line: I will continue to be bearish on this getting any traction until we see Republican sponsors or real evidence of a bipartisan effort. Even then it would seem like an uphill climb, given the lobbying against it. Still, the rise of prediction markets and Kalshi could eventually become the impetus for an actual federal framework for sports betting that currently doesn’t exist.
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Dominican official suspended for six years under Tennis Anti-Corruption Program (ITIA): “The International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) today confirms that tennis official Juan Gabriel Castro, from the Dominican Republic, has been suspended for six years and fined $6,000 following 12 breaches of the Tennis Anti-Corruption Program (TACP). Castro, a national-level official, did not respond to the ITIA’s notice of charge, which related to three matches, in which the official was alleged to have manipulated scoring entry to contrive the scorecard and facilitate corruption.”
Reading the line: This also creates more questions than it answers. For instance, six years seems light without more information. As Kalshi has gotten into betting on individual matches, integrity around tennis will continue to be a concern.
Majority of people in NJ favor limits on sports betting ads, poll finds (NorthJersey.com) | “The new FDU poll, whose results were released Friday, found that 76% of New Jersey voters favor a limit on gambling ads. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independent voters all felt the same way.”
Reading the line: While there’s evidence that sports betting advertising has gone down over time via the American Gaming Association, it doesn’t always feel like it to the average sports fan. I continue to think it would be wise if the industry tries to find a way to self-regulate (or throttle) ads In a meaningful way before someone does it for them, whether needed or not.
Gaming share prices crater on US consumer fears (Earnings + More, below) | “The falls across the US gaming sector stand in marked contrast to early February when share prices across the sector were chalking up double-digit gains. Moreover, the collapse could have been worse: the markets generally made a partial recovery after US Treasury chief Jay Powell played down fears over the health of the US economy.”
Reading the line: The above came before the NYSE opened, and stocks were again taking a beating across the board today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2% intraday after President Donald Trump refused to temper fears of a recession. Gaming stocks again were not immune. The likes of DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter had fallen 5-10% at mid-day.
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Gambling news today
The Bookmakers dinner: Inside one of Las Vegas' most exclusive Super Bowl traditions (ESPN): “The attendees mostly began as ticket writers and nighttime managers at old-school spots like the Royal Inn, the Barbary Coast and the Stardust. They climbed the corporate ladder and ended up running the sportsbooks at Caesars Palace, the Mirage and the SuperBook. For decades, they were the kings of American bookmaking, dating back to the 1970s, a time when Vegas wise guys of all kinds were taking shots at them.”
Genius Sports Betting Sales Surge, Stock Climbs Despite Profit Miss (Legal Sports Report): “Genius Sports pulled in $176 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 38% from a year ago, driven by a 48%surge in Betting Technology, Content & Services revenue. For the full year, betting revenue hit $354.9 million — accounting for nearly 70% of Genius’ total haul. Price hikes on contract renewals helped drive those gains, as sports betting operators continue to lean into official data and live betting.
Still, Genius missed profit estimates by a wide margin, posting a Q4 net loss of $0.12 per share and an annual loss of $0.27 per share — far below the break-even quarter and narrower full-year loss analysts had penciled in.”
Mastercard and Visa linked to illegal gambling sites accused of scamming UK customers (The Guardian): “Mastercard and Visa are processing payments for illegal gambling websites accused of scamming UK customers out of thousands of pounds. An investigation has found that the payment giants are failing to stop their networks being used to make transactions on unlicensed sites despite a previous pledge to do so.”
Bitline and Everi Announce Crypto Liquidity for Choctaw Casinos & Resorts in Industry First Development (press release): “Bitline, the only provider for casino chip access directly from cryptocurrency, has announced its first major collaboration in the U.S. casino market, teaming up with Choctaw Casinos & Resorts through its collaboration with Everi, a premier provider of financial technology and gaming solutions. This collaboration introduces cryptocurrency and digital assets as a new source of liquidity for casino patrons and marks the first time that such a functionality has been enabled within the American gaming industry.”
Cryptocurrency is getting an uneven and generally slow rollout in the U.S. gaming industry before this. With a presidential administration that is friendly to crypto and the rise of crypto casinos, regulators and stakeholders would be wise to collaborate and figure out how this is going to go.
Amelco to user Radar to strengthen geofencing capabilities (SBC Americas): “Amelco is ready to use Radar to enhance the geolocation capabilities it provides to North American operators. The company will integrate Radar’s geolocation technology into its platform to provide greater location verification and compliance solutions for online gaming brands. The partnership focuses on ensuring that Amelco’s North American clients remain fully compliant with state and provincial regulations while optimising performance for bettors.”
President of Lincoln County charity accused of embezzling over $300k for sports betting (WBTV): “LINCOLNTON, N.C. - The president of a Lincoln County charity was accused of spending over $300,000 in funds for sports betting. The sheriff’s office announced on Monday, March 10 that the president, Kevin Turner, 49, was given a $10,000 secured bond and charged with one felony count of embezzlement (more than $100,000).”
Mississippi State women’s basketball practice squad player violates NCAA sports gambling rules (Clarion Ledger): “The male practice squad player, whose name was redacted, placed six bets from Sept. 28-30 worth $10 total on NFL and college football games, according to Mississippi State’s annual NCAA violations report obtained by the Clarion Ledger through an open records request. None of the bets were placed on Mississippi State games. He began working for the team four days prior to placing the bets, according to the documents.”
I get that this person broke the rules, but I am also not sure why we care if staff in college programs bet on other sports. Sure, having the betting account could lead to gambling on the sport they are tied to, I suppose, but it feels like a bit much.
Kalshi and Polymarket moving into sports could have catastrophic consequences (USA Today): “That’s both the beauty and danger of prediction markets, which have been gaining popularity in the U.S. ever since a federal appeals court ruled in October that Kalshi could continue allowing Americans to bet on the election. They’re good prediction tools because group-think tends to be incredibly accurate when people are putting their money on the line — especially if a few of those people have inside information.”
Will Rhode Island expand sports betting? (Boston Globe): “A group of state representatives and senators have introduced legislation that would allow at least five sports betting vendors to open in Rhode Island beginning in 2026, up from the current exclusive rights held by IGT and its Sportsbook Rhode Island app.”
That app is one of the worst in the U.S., so hopefully this happens.
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