The Early Line: Kalshi Nears $900 Million In Volume On Super Bowl Sunday — But What's Next?
Gambling news roundup: DraftKings expands prediction market in Crypto.com deal; Hard Rock to build Puerto Rico casino.
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A very Kalshi Super Bowl: Do you want the good news or the bad news first? I know you want the bad news first, but I will start with the good because I don’t always want to be negative!
Kalshi did $871 million in volume on Super Bowl Sunday, according to the tracking I use. If the game had been closer, it clearly would have been more than a billion dollars. Top 10 events below; there was lots of betting on ads and the halftime show:
Kalshi had some problems yesterday, too; a significant number of people depositing were not able to see their money in the app in time to bet on the game. That probably depressed volume a bit. Sportsbooks have had issues with uptime in Super Bowls past; that Kalshi would have issues during its biggest stress point is not terribly surprising. While there were complaints of slowness throughout the day, it doesn’t seem like there was ever a point of total failure.
There was one Super Bowl market — not related to the game on the field — that had a pretty big issue. More on that at The Event Horizon, about Cardi B being a part of the halftime show but not resolving to ‘yes’ on whether she ‘performed’:
📚 Reading the line: The football season is in the books. The question now: Will Kalshi — and all of its partners and competitors — hold onto users they acquired over the past 4-5 months?
We have March Madness looming, which was a huge event for Kalshi last year. But after that, late spring and summer are often the doldrums for US sportsbooks. The World Cup in North America should also provide a boost this summer, however,
But the idea behind prediction markets is getting people to trade/bet on everything else. Can Kalshi start to fulfill that promise, or will it remain mostly a sports betting exchange with a handful of one-offs driving meaningful volume? Midterm elections in the US could be one point where that manifests.
And, of course, there are a ton of new operators contesting the space in recent months, weeks, and even days. Polymarket is still in beta. The rest of 2026 and next football season will be an interesting time to watch how things develop.
And before we move on, here’s my latest podcast and roundup on the entire prediction markets landscape:
And more on insider trading from Straight To The Point:
Everything Is Gambling And We’d Be Better Off Admitting It (Casino Reports): “So here’s where we stand. Prediction markets: not gambling (federal government says so). Sweepstakes casinos: gambling (some states say so). Loot boxes: not gambling (most courts say so). Blind box toys: not gambling (nobody’s even really asking). Baseball cards: not gambling, but 100% gambling. Sports betting at a licensed sportsbook: gambling. Sports betting on a prediction market: not gambling.”
“If you can make sense of this, you’re smarter than I am. And you’re smarter than the roughly 8,372 lawyers currently billing hours trying to sort it all out. But let’s keep going, because it gets worse.”
📚 Reading the line: Amen. Instead of just endlessly saying everything’s not gambling because of legal reasons, it would be awesome if we could just establish that there are a lot of things on the gambling spectrum. If people keep being told that x activity isn’t gambling (prediction markets, fantasy sports, sweepstakes, etc.) there are at least some people who will believe that. It’s not great.
In particular, I hate the idea that companies are repping that prediction markets are just another type of investing or trading. And while that may be true at a surface level, the underlying activity for many people is just betting on outcomes. Instead of trying to lump sports event contracts in with investing, I’d argue there’s a far better argument to lump forms of trading in with gambling. Or at least I would like people to acknowledge that some are using trading instruments to gamble.
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Gambling news roundup
Who Calls 1-800-GAMBLER? Around Big Sports Events, It’s Often Young Men. (New York Times): “The weekend of the N.F.L.’s conference championship games in late January was a busy one for the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline, when several calls like these were recorded. The help line, which offers referrals for counseling and treatment options, receives about 30 phone calls and text chats on an average day — more than 12,000 a year — although some of those are from bots, pranksters and people with questions about placing bets.”
“For those seeking help from the operators on the line, addiction to casino slots remains the top issue. But sports betting has taken the No. 2 spot, with the number of calls spiking during big sporting events. Super Bowl Sunday is one of the busiest days of the year.”
Jump Trading Poised to Gain Stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket (Bloomberg): “Jump Trading is set to gain small stakes in Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity on the prediction-market platforms, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The firm’s agreement with Kalshi is for a set amount of equity in the company, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters. The size of the stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on how much trading capacity Jump provides to the exchange’s operation in the US, the people said.”
DraftKings Expands Prediction Markets Catalog in Deal With Crypto.com (press release): DraftKings Inc. today announced an agreement with Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a global cryptocurrency platform and CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, to broaden the prediction markets available on DraftKings Predictions. The expansion marks the first player-specific sports event contracts offered on DraftKings Predictions for both the NFL and NBA, extends the platform’s prediction markets offerings, and establishes the foundation for future categories, including politics.
“We’re continuing to build momentum behind DraftKings Predictions by leveraging our expertise across sports and technology and integrating additional CFTC-regulated exchanges like Crypto.com,” said Jeanine Hightower-Sellitto, Senior Vice President and General Manager of DraftKings Predictions. “This collaboration meaningfully expands customer access to trade on sports and a broader range of prediction markets and also reinforces our focus on delivering a more comprehensive and engaging experience as the product continues to evolve.”
As part of this expansion, DraftKings Predictions adds breadth across sports prediction markets in the states where the product is available, spanning soccer, MMA, golf, boxing, tennis, and the Olympic Games, to complement the existing sports and financial markets provided by CME Group. In addition to the wider scope of sports prediction markets, Crypto.com is expected to support DraftKings Predictions’ introduction of new event contract categories, including culture, entertainment, and politics. Additionally, DraftKings Predictions will integrate Railbird Exchange in the coming months, further strengthening its offering.
“Crypto.com continues to lead the way with innovative collaboration. Connecting with DraftKings, a household name in sports, is an important milestone for us because it allows us to not only expand access to prediction markets in sports, but it grows our distribution to prediction markets on cryptocurrencies, financials, companies, politics, culture, entertainment and beyond,” said Travis McGhee, Global Head of Predictions at Crypto.com. “We are thrilled to work with DraftKings, and we look forward to creating an engaging experience together for customers across the country.”
Senator calls out prediction markets regulator: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig has turned a few heads (well, at least mine), with how he has been posting on Twitter of late, including this one.
Mike Selig@MichaelSeligStrong Disagree.
Chris Christie @GovChristieI believe Prediction Markets are violating the law. In 40 states we have regulated betting that can’t market to teenagers, pays state taxes, protects game integrity & reports suspicious activity to law enforcement. Prediction markets do none of that at all https://t.co/3dMAnS44Ex10:06 PM · Feb 5, 2026 · 224K Views108 Replies · 83 Reposts · 665 LikesSelig said several times during his nomination hearing in the Senate that the issue of the legality of sports event contracts should be left up to the courts. That included this statement:
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada-D) offered this statement to The Closing Line in response to Selig’s tweet: “Despite his previous promise during his confirmation process to stay out of ongoing state-led lawsuits, CFTC Chair Selig’s online comments prove he lied to Congress. Beyond that, he is profoundly wrong. Prediction markets are facilitating illegal sports gaming across the country, and it’s past time for the CFTC to do its job and enforce both its own rules and the will of Congress.”
Ifrah Law has been at the center of advancing iGaming in the U.S., shaping groundbreaking legislation, leading precedent-setting cases, and guiding clients that span the iGaming ecosystem through every phase of their business journey. Learn more at IfrahLaw.com.
New Rule: Super Bet Sunday (Real Time with Bill Maher):
Sportradar to Power NBA Fan Experiences Across NBC Sports Regional Sports Networks through Advanced Data and Enhanced Visual Storytelling (press release): Sportradar AG today announced a multi-year agreement with NBC Sports Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) to enhance the NBA viewing experience through real-time, cutting-edge broadcast solutions that enhance live game coverage.
NBC Sports Regional Networks will leverage Sportradar’s NBA Advanced Data and GameFrame across live NBA game broadcasts during the 2025-26 and 2026-27 NBA seasons. The agreement supports hundreds of NBA telecasts across NBC Sports’s regional networks, delivering more dynamic coverage to fans in multiple NBA markets nationwide.
At the center of the partnership is GameFrame, which uses AI to transform live NBA player-tracking data into on-air graphics, animated replays, shot charts, and customized digital assets. GameFrame supports in-game analysis and storytelling by helping on-air talent explain plays, positioning, and outcomes as the action unfolds.
“This agreement builds upon our long-standing relationship with NBC and reflects how we continue to expand the ways we support their live sports coverage,” said Brian Josephs, VP, The Americas, Sportradar. “As NBC continues to evolve how it serves fans across platforms, Sportradar is helping deliver the data-driven tools that bring greater clarity and context to live games, creating more engaging NBA viewing experiences for fans.”
“Enhancing the viewing experience is essential to our NBA coverage across regional sports networks,” said Jon Slobotkin, SVP, Content & Live Programming, NBC Sports Regional Networks. “Sportradar’s GameFrame offers a new way to add data-driven insights directly into live coverage, bringing visually stunning stories that resonate with today’s fans.”
Hard Rock International Unveils Plans for Hard Rock Hotel & Casino San Juan (press release): Hard Rock International announces today it is partnering with Misla Hospitality, Stonecrest Investment Management, and The Interfin Companies to develop the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino San Juan. The $850 million new-build project is slated to open in 2029, with construction commencing mid-2026. …
Governor of Puerto Rico, Jenniffer González-Colón, said: “The launch in San Juan of the first hotel, casino, and residential complex by the prestigious firm Hard Rock International, with construction set to begin mid-year, opens a world of possibilities for economic development. This significant $850 million investment, in addition to generating jobs and becoming another attraction for the island, helps continue positioning Puerto Rico as an ideal destination in the Caribbean — a destination for tourism, living, and global investment.”
Offering views of both San Juan Bay and the Atlantic Ocean, Hard Rock Hotel & Casino San Juan will feature approximately 415 rooms, 58 suites, and 186 Branded Residences. The property will amplify the island’s music culture by introducing event venues, a recording studio, and local memorabilia. It will be the first integrated casino in Puerto Rico for a complete travel-entertainment experience.
“Music is at the heart of both Hard Rock and Puerto Rico, making this a perfect union,” said Jeff Hook, Chief Operating Officer at Hard Rock International. “San Juan is a natural extension of our portfolio, creating a seamless Hard Rock experience for guests traveling between our international properties. We’re honored to create a destination that celebrates Puerto Rico’s rich music and arts scene, and we look forward to welcoming visitors and locals alike to experience the island’s dynamic cultural landscape.”
LuckBox taps ex-FanDuel VP to join C-suite (Next.io): “The company announced today (9 February) that John Maguire, FanDuel’s former vice president of trading product and general manager Australia, will serve as the business’ new chief customer officer.”
“It comes amid the continued meteoric rise of prediction markets in the US, where – despite continued regulatory uncertainty – the platforms represent the biggest challenge to the leading sportsbooks since 2018.”
Ryan Coombs, LuckBox co-founder and CEO, said: “We’re excited to welcome John to LuckBox Studios. John is one of the most highly regarded trading and product leaders in the industry, and his experience aligns perfectly with our vision at LuckBox.
“Sports betting and prediction markets still have significant room to evolve, and we see a clear opportunity to help shape what comes next.”