The Early Line: No, The Winter Olympics Aren't Big For Betting, Or Prediction Markets
Gambling news roundup: Maryland online casino bill update; World Series of Poker announces summer schedule.
I’ll be speaking at Next Summit New York next month. I bet we’ll talk about prediction markets! Get your tickets here, and use code TCL0L10FU3V for a 10% discount.
Betting/trading on the Olympics?: Here are some metrics at Kalshi… Since Olympics markets were listed, there has been just $17 million in trading volume on the Winter Games. And in the trailing seven days, trading on the Olympics has only accounted for about 0.6% of all volume. There has been more bet on the moneyline of single NBA games of late.
📚 Reading the line: I recently started realizing at least some people thought the Winter Olympics would be a big moment for prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev even mentioned it in an earnings call: “I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time. This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now.”
The reality is that outside of the biggest hockey games, there’s not that much interest (or liquidity) on the Olympics. And that’s a trend that has been apparent for some time, including in the regulated US online sports betting industry. It’s at least mildly funny that Tenev appears to have little sense of what people actually bet on, when he’s willing to name a class of event contracts that will be a rounding error in volume. You’re in the sports betting business now, Vlad; time to learn the game.
Side note: Curling rules. Beyond medal counts and hockey, curling is Kalshi’s biggest Olympic market. (But it’s still very small.)
Episode 10: NBA, MLB Warming Up To Prediction Markets (The Event Horizon): “Two of the biggest North American sports leagues are getting more comfortable with the idea of prediction markets… when will they dive in headfirst?” …
“We currently are looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way that we’re looking at sports betting markets or sports betting companies,” (NBA Commissioner Adam) Silver said Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles. “It’s rapidly evolving. Prediction markets have now come on the scene fairly recently as, I don’t know how else to say it, major sports betting marketplaces. Whether prediction markets are allowed to go forward in the form they’re in now will, I think, be ultimately an issue for the courts and for Congress.”
📚 Reading the line: You don’t need a crystal ball to divine that sports leagues are setting the stage for getting involved with prediction markets. While relationships between the NBA and MLB could end up being more of a cordial hug than a warm embrace, it feels like it’s coming. And it certainly could be the latter, too, if the leagues see an opportunity to own a piece of the prediction market business(es).
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Gambling news roundup
Maryland Internet Casino Bill Takes On Pro-Labor Focus (Casino Reports): “Maryland state Sen. Ron Watson has made addressing cannibalization concerns one of his primary legislative planks in his push to legalize internet casino gaming in the Old Line State. SB 885, which got its first reading Feb. 6 in the Budget and Taxation Committee and is currently scheduled for a March 11 hearing, would put legalizing the gaming vertical in the hands of the voters via referendum in November. Maryland lawmakers made a concerted effort to legalize iGaming last year, but bills in both the House and Senate stalled.”
FanDuel Predicts Draws On Current Gambling Success, User Familiarity (InGame): “FanDuel didn’t attempt to reinvent either itself or the prediction market app when it launched FanDuel Predicts last year. That was sensible, given its hefty national sports betting market share and its parent company’s roots with the Betfair exchange. Instead, FanDuel Predicts gives sports bettors and prediction market newcomers alike something comfortable, while attempting to teach them something new and, ultimately, entice them to patronize everything the company offers, James Cooper, senior vice president, Flywheel and New Ventures at FanDuel told InGame.”
A Parent Toolkit For Talking About Gambling
FanDuel’s Trusted Voices: Conversations About Betting is designed to equip adults with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling.
This resource is a guide for parents and adult mentors, featuring details on today’s gambling landscape and guidance on how you can help. It includes information on different types of gambling activity, how adults can educate young people on the risks, and a list of resources.
Woke Up And Chose Violence | The knives are officially out in the fight between prediction markets and the entrenched gambling industry (Straight to the Point): “I also take exception to the ongoing effort to recategorize everything, like framing active users as anyone who looks at prediction market graphs (which are now unavoidable thanks to the numerous partnerships Kalshi and other PMs have with the ‘fake news’ outlets they malign) (which begs the question, why would biased media use prediction markets if they are biased?)
Congressional, Tribal Leaders Don’t Mince Words In Upping Pressure On CFTC (InGame): “The pressure is on. Tribal leaders last Wednesday told a congressional committee that sports event contracts are challenging the very way of life in Indian Country. A day later, 23 Senate Democrats, including three from the committee, sent a strongly worded letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig telling him to stand down.”
“For Indian Country, the rise of sports event contracts on prediction markets is a direct threat to sovereignty and a clear violation of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). Indian Gaming Association (IGA) Chair David Bean and National Congress of American Indians (NCAI) President Mark Macarro led a tribal-commercial briefing before the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs saying ‘Tribal nations are unified with states to stop this illegal betting market. We are asking Congress to step in before irreversible damage is done to state and tribal budgets and our citizens’ livelihoods.’”
This is interesting, if nothing else?
Geoff Zochodne@GeoffZochodnea sweepstakes casino-sponsored car winning the Daytona 500 might catch the eye of some state lawmakers
NASCAR @NASCARIT'S TYLER'S TIME! @TylerReddick wins the 68th running of the #DAYTONA500!10:50 PM · Feb 15, 2026 · 1.99K Views1 Reply · 7 Likes
THE WORLD SERIES OF POKER® REVEALS FULL SUMMER 2026 SERIES SCHEDULE (press release): The World Series of Poker (WSOP®) today announced the daily event schedule for the 2026 World Series of Poker, the 57th edition of the world’s richest and most prestigious poker series. Returning to the Horseshoe Las Vegas and Paris Las Vegas on the iconic Las Vegas Strip, the 2026 WSOP promises a summer of unparalleled action, where new legends will be made and 100 gold bracelets will be awarded.
The excitement begins on May 26 with a revamped lineup designed to maintain the momentum of 2025’s record-breaking season, which saw GGPoker ambassador Michael “The Grinder” Mizrachi capture the Main Event title and a $10,000,000 top prize.
As always, the centerpiece of the summer is the $10,000 No-Limit Hold’em World Championship, better known as the ‘Main Event’, which begins on Thursday, July 2. Play will proceed until the final table is reached on July 13, with specifics on the Main Event final table play dates and broadcast coverage to be announced at a later date.
To bring WSOP action to a wider international audience for free, a daily stream will be broadcast live on the official WSOP YouTube channel from May 26 through to the start of the Main Event. This daily broadcast will showcase the new and improved TV set in Paris Las Vegas and feature some of the game’s most recognizable commentators.
WSOP Final Table Delay Returning 10 Years After The Last ‘November Nine’ (Casino Reports): “Nobody is calling it the “November Nine” this time around because nobody knows what month it’s going to take place in, but the World Series of Poker (WSOP) is bringing back the November Nine concept of a delayed Main Event final table. The WSOP released its 2026 schedule announcement Monday morning — featuring 100 live bracelet events in all between May 26 and July 25 — with the throwback to formats of Main Events past standing out as the biggest piece of news.”
Craig Albernaz ‘as shocked as anyone’ by gambling allegations against Emmanuel Clase (Baltimore Banner): “Orioles manager Craig Albernaz lived through one of baseball’s most compelling and troubling sagas last year as Cleveland’s associate manager. In July, the Guardians lost star closer Emmanuel Clase to suspension as MLB investigated an alleged scheme to rig pitches for the benefit of gamblers.”
“I was shocked as anyone else — and our whole clubhouse, too,” Albernaz said Sunday. “It was a blow to the clubhouse in the sense of, yes, he was a really good pitcher who helped us win a lot of games, but then also he’s one of your boys, right? You’re in it together.
Argentinian tennis player suspended for two months (press release): The International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) today confirms that Hernán Casanova, a 32-year-old tennis player from Argentina, has been suspended for two months under the Tennis Anti-Corruption Program (TACP).
Casanova, who reached a career-high world singles ranking of 221 in October 2022, admitted to betting on numerous tennis matches in which they had no involvement or influence between 2023 and 2025, in breach of the TACP. Casanova also admitted to one separate breach of the 2024 TACP, relating to failure to report a corrupt approach.
Casanova accepted a sanction of two months, and a fine of $2,000 of which $1,500 is suspended. The sanction is effective from 4 February 2026, and will end on 3 April 2026.
During the period of ineligibility, Casanova is prohibited from playing in, coaching at, or attending any tennis event authorised or sanctioned by the members of the ITIA (ATP, ITF, WTA, Tennis Australia, Fédération Française de Tennis, Wimbledon and USTA) or any national association.
The ITIA is an independent body established by its tennis funders to promote, encourage, enhance, and safeguard the integrity of their professional tennis events.
