The Early Line: People Betting Chicago, Villanova Futures Because Of Pope
Gambling news roundup: Kalshi court updates; Sportradar reports Q1; Taliban bans chess because of gambling.
TCL offers a roundup of recent US gambling news with analysis called The Early Line every Monday.
Quick note: I’ll be at SBC in Florida this week; feel free to email me here, find me on LinkedIn, fill out the contact form on my site, etc., if you want to meet. I’m also moderating a panel on Thursday at 11 am:
New Pope effect: Bettors are flocking toward Bears, Cubs, Villanova title odds (New York Times): “There wasn’t much faith at BetMGM that Robert Francis Prevost would be selected as the new Pope — less than 1 percent of the money wagered for the next Pope betting market (yes, you could’ve bet on that, but only in Ontario) came in on Prevost. After that Hail Mary cashed in at +5000 odds this past Thursday, bettors, or let’s call them optimists in this scenario, are now backing other long shots related to Prevost’s life before becoming Pope Leo XIV. Pope Leo XIV was born in Chicago in 1955 and graduated from Villanova University with a Bachelor’s degree in mathematics in 1977 before his journey with the Catholic Church. The first American pope was even captured in old game footage from the 2005 World Series, where he was shown on the FOX broadcast during Game 1 in the Windy City between the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros. While sportsbooks didn’t report any recent notable betting activity on the White Sox (who are tied for the second-worst World Series odds at +50000 at BetMGM), there were surges on other teams with connections to the Pope immediately after the announcement. ‘Sports fans are looking for anything, even potential divine intervention, to help their favorite teams win,’ said Neil Walsh, Hard Rock Bet’s SVP-Sportsbook. ‘Some of our players look at data, others rely on gut feeling, and in this case, potentially a higher power, as we’ve seen a greater than expected volume of bets come through with fans tailing the new Pope’s hometown teams with their wagering.’”
Reading the line: This kind of data is fascinating and funny and sad at the same time. For the past eight years, I have heard different iterations of the idea that “Americans want to be better at sports betting.” While some do, the vast majority don’t. They want to turn a small amount of money into a bigger one. They want a sweat. Or to lose their money for giggles. Or because they think the Pope being from America affects sports teams. Or some combination of all these things. In any event, people just want to bet. Yes, they would like to win money, but by and large, they don’t want to do any of the work associated with increasing their odds of winning money. There’s no better example of how Americans bet than some cohort of people wagering actual American dollars on sports teams based on who the Pope is.
BONUS POPE BETTING MATERIAL: No, people didn’t bet $40 million on who would be Pope between Kalshi and Polymarket. There was $40 million in trading volume, which is not the same thing. If you want to learn more about trading volume at prediction markets, click that link. A fairly large amount of that volume was people betting on longer shots, and market makers taking the “no” side of those contracts, creating substantial volume as a result. No matter how you slice it, we’re getting a lot of confusion about what’s going on at prediction markets in terms of money wagered.
It’s wild how much gambling content the selection of the Pope is generating.
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Kalshi news in NJ, Maryland court cases:
In both cases, Kalshi is suing to stop states from telling them to stop sports event trading.
ICYMI, New Jersey is appealing the preliminary injunction granted by a federal district court to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals. Some analysis here from attorney Andrew Kim about this move from NJ.
In the Maryland case, state regulators have filed their opposition to Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction: “As it has done in other states, Kalshi is attempting to circumvent Maryland’s robust regulation of sports wagering by labelling the placement, purchase, and sale of sports wagers on Kalshi’s market as “event contracts” and claiming that federal preemption prohibits Maryland from regulating Kalshi’s sports wagering business. Preemption, however, simply doesn’t apply. First, Kalshi’s sports wagering contracts (“gaming devices”) are not within the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) because they are neither “swaps” nor “contracts of sale of a commodity for future delivery” under the Commodity Exchange Act (“CEA”).” Whole thing below, and again, more from Kim here.
Reading the line: After a flurry of cease-and-desists and legal activity around Kalshi’s sports event offerings in the past month or so, things have calmed down quite a bit. We still have C&D’s hanging out in Ohio, Illinois and Montana, with no public response from Kalshi. It’s feasible we’ll see these two cases plus the Kalshi lawsuit in Nevada end up being proxies for all the state legal pushback. I’d also be shocked if the legal pushback ends with these state C&Ds, as there are other ways to try to bring Kalshi’s offering into question at the federal level.
Jackpocket, DraftKings merging user accounts: An email I received this week (as a user of both): “Jackpocket is part of the DraftKings family. In a few weeks, we’ll be merging your Jackpocket and DraftKings accounts so that you have one login across your Jackpocket and DraftKings apps. If you have deposit limits set on your Jackpocket account, those limits will also apply to your DraftKings account once merged. Your new deposit limit will be whichever limit (Jackpocket or DraftKings) is more restrictive.”
Reading the line: Small but interesting news (at least to me) here. This kind of underlines part of why DraftKings did this acquisition in the first place, to get another touchpoint in users’/gamblers’ lives. If you use both, it will definitely be welcome, and it should make cross-sell easier. It definitely didn’t make sense to have these be separate into perpetuity.
Learn more about skill games at SBC Summit Americas
Toast will be at SBC Summit Americas, ready to meet and talk about real-time strategy-based skill games for the North American market and beyond. Toast is a B2B provider with several games already launched, and a new basketball game going live this month; teaser video below. The games are built for easy integration with any platform. For a demo or to learn more, email connect@playtoast.com.
Gambling news roundup
Sportradar reports Q1: Press release bullets:
“Revenue increased 17% to €311 million
Profit for the period increased to €24 million and expanded to 7.8% as a percentage of revenue
Adjusted EBITDA increased 25% to €59 million and Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 18.9%
Net cash generated from operating activities increased 52% to €102 million and Free cash flow increased €32 million to €32 million
Achieved Customer Net Retention Rate of 122%
Extended and expanded partnership with Major League Baseball through 2032
Announced agreement to acquire IMG ARENA and its global sports betting rights portfolio”
Shares were up slightly on the day.
Americas Online Gambling Market To Soon Eclipse Europe’s, Finds Vixio Forecasts (press release): “Vixio, a leading provider of regulatory intelligence solutions, ahead of SBC Americas forecasts that the regulated online gambling market in the Americas to be worth US$32.5bn by 2026, compared to US$15.6bn in 2022, more than doubling in size in a period of four years. This growth rate is more than double the equivalent in Europe, with the European regulated online gambling market projected to be worth €37.3bn in 2026, up from just under €30bn in 2022. By 2028, regulated online gambling markets in the U.S., Canada and Latin American countries are expected to generate US$56.3bn, drawing level with Europe or potentially surpassing it depending on currency fluctuations. ‘Prior to 2018, the regulated online gambling market was highly Euro-centric but legalization of sports betting and iGaming in various U.S. states as well as the major markets of Ontario and Brazil has coincided with stricter regulations in European countries that has restricted growth in a number of cases,’ said James Kilsby, Chief Analyst, Vixio.”
Sweepstakes Update: Which Ban Bills Are Still Alive? (Legal Sports Report): “A wave of legislation addressing online sweepstakes hit US state legislatures this year, and while some bills have died for the session, others are still making progress.”
Rush Street Interactive Announces Initiative Supporting Increased Gaming Literacy For Teens (press release): “Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI), in partnership with Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360), has launched a new initiative called Gaming Literacy Aiding Decisions (GLAD), an innovative program designed to assist educators in enhancing high school student gaming literacy and promoting that cohort’s responsible relationship with this ever more socially prevalent activity. ‘Consumers today have more entertainment options than ever before, including within the gaming space,” said Richard Schwartz, RSI CEO. “We appreciate that this expanded landscape offers individuals more ways to fulfill their entertainment needs. As technology continues to evolve, entertainment options, such as online gambling, have become increasingly mainstream and accessible. Like any material societal change, this evolution requires thoughtful education and honest, open dialogue - particularly for youth who are coming of age in an environment where these choices are all around them. I’ve seen this first hand with young people in my own community. It’s clear that exposure is growing, and with it, the need for responsible frameworks.’”
Taliban suspends chess over gambling concerns (BBC): “The Taliban government in Afghanistan has banned chess until further notice due to fears the game is a source of gambling. Officials said the game has been prohibited indefinitely until its compatibility with Islamic law can be determined. Chess is the latest sport to be restricted by the Taliban. Women are essentially barred from participating in sport at all.”
Michigan Player Wins $609K Progressive Jackpot on BetMGM Casino (press release): “BetMGM, a leading iGaming and sports betting operator, announced today that Steven Hooker from Michigan won a $609,198 progressive jackpot on a $20 spin while playing MGM Grand Millions on BetMGM Casino in January. Steven Hooker received the ‘VIP rockstar’ treatment courtesy of BetMGM during his first trip to Las Vegas in April. A big AC/DC fan, he got tickets to see the legendary rock n’ roll band at Allegiant Stadium and participated in a check presentation on stage at Rhythm & Riffs at Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. He was also treated to a 3-day, 2-night stay at ARIA that included dinner at Jean Georges Steakhouse and exotic car racing at Speed Vegas. Some jackpot winners are eligible for BetMGM’s unique jackpot program that delivers above-and-beyond experiences only available through BetMGM Casino and its connection with MGM Resorts International.”
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