The Early Line: Robinhood Rolls Out NBA, NHL Futures Betting
Gambling news roundup: Kalshi launches NHL moneylines; the options for ESPN Bet's future; ALT Sports Data closes $5 million round; do we really need content about betting on the new Pope?
TCL offers a roundup of recent US gambling news with analysis called The Early Line every Monday.
Robinhood offers futures, Kalshi expands to moneyline betting for NHL | The expansion of nationwide sports betting continues on an almost daily basis. First, Robinhood has added some of Kalshi’s sports betting markets to its platform over the weekend: namely, futures for the NBA and NHL playoffs. Second, Kalshi has added NHL moneyline bets to the platform; that follows the launch of single-game winner markets for the NBA and Major League Baseball last week. Robinhood is not offering single-game markets … yet.
Reading the line: For anyone who thinks Kalshi will slow down of its own volition, or because state regulators are telling them to knock it off, I have one piece of advice: Look at the evidence. Six states have said sports event trading is illegal sports betting in their state. The reaction from Kalshi? Lawsuits, and a massive expansion of the portfolio of sports events you can bet on. Kalshi isn’t interested in your norms; they’re interested in throwing your norms out the window.
It seems likely we’ll hear more from the pro sports leagues at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission roundtable or shortly thereafter. But right now their silence continues to be mostly deafening.
Why New Jersey's Case Against Kalshi Is Stronger Than Nevada's (The Event Horizon) | “Kalshi may regret bringing the fight to New Jersey. The state filed its response to Kalshi’s preliminary injunction motion — and it delivers quite a punch. New Jersey’s brief persuasively argues that, even in the sandbox of the Commodity Exchange Act, there’s room for state regulators to play.”
Reading the line: While Kalshi won an early victory in a Nevada federal court on whether it can legally offer sports betting, the case that New Jersey is making is already of a higher quality and a more serious challenge, from early indications. The war likely isn’t over; it’s only just beginning.
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Can ESPN Bet Win Big — or should PENN Entertainment, Inc cash out? (LinkedIn) | “Last week, MBA students at The Wharton School, Duncan Robertson, Freddy Marsh, David McDaniel, Gracie Olsavsky, Mahi Shapally, and Sam Epley dove into ESPN’s 10/year $2B sports betting agreement with Penn Entertainment. … The group recommends: End the ESPN partnership by 2026. Rebrand the product under Penn’s own name. Reinvest the annual $150M payment to ESPN into tech, talent, and product innovation.”
Reading the line: Hard for me to argue with any of that. This post puts it into pretty stark terms. Do we think Penn is getting $150 million in value for its sportsbook out of the ESPN deal? Right now, the answer is clearly no; you’d still be betting on the future of the relationship bearing fruit. I am not sure running it under its “own name” — which I guess would mean Hollywood — will work, but it would be cheaper. The model here would be BetRivers, which has a small but decent sports betting business and a good online casino business. Penn would probably be better off with that outcome than chasing the podium (or trying to get within spitting distance of the podium) for US sports betting.
Colorado lawmakers want to tax “free” sports bets to raise more money for water projects (Colorado Sun): “Colorado lawmakers on the hunt for more cash for water programs are proposing that sports gaming companies pay new taxes on free bets, a move that could boost the amount of money the gambling activity now generates for water projects by roughly 30%. If approved, House Bill 1311 would generate nearly $12 million in cash next year for water planning, conservation efforts and such things as irrigation system repair and the purchase of water rights. That is in addition to the $30 million the program is already on track to produce, according to Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Democrat from Frisco who is one of the sponsors of House Bill 1311. “
Reading the line: I again implore anyone looking to tax regulated sportsbooks more at this moment in time to look at Kalshi, Robinhood, etc., who are not paying your sports betting taxes. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
Betting on the new Pope | Pope Francis just died, and now you can bet on the next Pope. You can generally bet this offshore and at prediction markets; Kalshi market here.
Reading the line: Have fun if you want to bet on it, I guess. Unlike some things, there is potentially actual hedging value in this, from a prediction markets standpoint (even though the use case is mostly speculation/gambling). But I saw this piece of content (which I won’t link) and wanted to poke my eyes out “Betting on the New Pope? Here's How to Place a Wager on the Bishop of Rome.”
Also, I am trying to imagine the pearl-clutching that would happen if a US sportsbook tried to offer markets on the new Pope hours after he died.
Gambling news roundup
NGCB reaches $8.5M money laundering settlement with MGM (SBC Americas): “MGM Resorts has agreed to a $8.5 million stipulated agreement after failing to adhere to anti-money laundering rules by allowing illegal bookmakers to gamble at its properties. The international hospitality and gaming giant reached an agreement with the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) following improper business practices by former MGM Grand President Scott Sibella, who knowingly failed to report suspicious transactions by illegal bookmaker Wayne Nix. According to court documents, Nix used illicit cash proceeds from his illegal bookmaking business to gamble at Las Vegas casinos.”
ALT Sports Data Announces Successful Fundraising Round Co-Led by Relay Ventures and Eberg Capital (press release): “ALT Sports Data, the global leader in engagement solutions and official data for emerging sports, today announced the successful closing of its $5M Seed round. The round was significantly oversubscribed due to overwhelming investor interest. The round was co-led by Relay Ventures and Eberg Capital, with participation from Motley Fool Ventures, Scrum Ventures, and a consortium of strategic investors. … In the past six months, ALT Sports Data has inked globally exclusive partnerships with Formula 1 and X Games, reinforcing its dominant position in the rapidly expanding emerging sports category with a growing portfolio of over 25 premier sports properties. ‘ALT Sports Data is more than a data provider — we’re becoming the connective tissue between next-gen sports, sportsbooks, and fans,’ said Joe Dunnigan, CEO and Founder of ALT Sports Data. ‘With our growing portfolio of rightsholders and partners, we’re creating the infrastructure that’s driving new revenue and deeper engagement across the entire value chain.’”
Hawaii’s illegal gambling problem: ‘It’s a plague’ (KHON): “Illegal game rooms continue to be a serious issue on Oahu, and city councilmembers say a recent shooting outside of an illicit establishment in Kalihi serves as a wake-up call as they push for action to dismantle the illegal gaming industry. … ‘These games aren’t just some aunties playing mahjong. They’re not a bunch of uncles playing poker. This is a whole industry. And along with it comes the guns and drugs, just like we saw in the Kalihi bust and in the Halawa bust. These are really huge problems for our communities,’ said Honolulu City Councilmember Tyler Dos Santos-Tam.
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