The Early Line: Sports Betting Handle Is A Problem In PA And NJ (Or Is It?)
Roundup: Caesars, Fertitta extend takeover talks, per Bloomberg; 30+ companies are exploring Alberta's online casino launch.
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Handle is down in Pennsylvania and New Jersey (The Handle, paywall for full posts): Here’s a quick look at March numbers in two of the biggest states that have published their numbers:
New Jersey for March (year over year):
Handle: $1,012,329,979 (▼ 8.6%)
Revenue: $87,642,267 (▲ 23%)
PA for March (year over year):
Handle: $730,853,609 (▼ 13%)
Revenue: $67,669,051 (▲ 38%)
📚Reading the line: It’s getting difficult to ignore the decline in handle in state-regulated sports betting. However, I still caution people wanting to make sweeping conclusions about this data.
Handle across reporting states so far (with a decent amount of data still to come) is down about 5%. However, revenue is up sharply, over 40% from what was a terrible March for sportsbooks in 2025. March did have one fewer Saturday than last year. Replacing a Saturday from 2025 with a weekday in 2026 is something more than immaterial, but it’s certainly not making up the entire difference, and is certainly not accounting for the huge differences in NJ and PA.
The push and pull between analyzing handle and revenue in the US sports betting industry has long been a point of contention. European analysts have at times derided using handle as an analysis point. The point of being a sportsbook is making money, and handle doesn’t matter as much, the argument has gone. But the rise of prediction markets has flipped that dynamic, with far more attention now being paid to handle.
We’re maybe gravitating back to first principles, however. If revenue is healthy, how much should operators care about some erosion in handle? It’s possible that some of that volume is coming from lower-margin, higher-frequency users migrating to prediction markets. If so, that’s not necessarily a bad tradeoff. FanDuel has long proven that you can hold more without crushing handle (mostly due to same-game parlays) and do just fine.
The decrease in handle isn’t great for optics or reality, of course. Continually shedding handle likely doesn’t create an environment where sportsbooks can grow revenue into perpetuity. Handle is still a leading indicator of how much people are using sportsbooks. If that number isn’t growing — whether it’s because of prediction markets or not — it’s not great!
What’s it all mean? Like most things in the US sports betting industry, you have to wait until the next football season to see what’s what. If we’re seeing worse numbers then, that’s a stronger signal than the short timeframe where we’re seeing a decrease in handle.
The Comeback with Craig Carton
Sponsor’s message: In episode 6 of The Comeback, Craig Carton talks with Sam who began his gambling during the early 2000’s poker boom. He saw his problems begin with online sports betting, though, betting on illegal offshore sportsbooks while living in California.
Gambling news roundup
🚨The important stuff
Fertitta Extends Talks for $18 Billion Takeover of Caesars (Bloomberg): Caesars Entertainment Inc. has extended the period of exclusive talks about an $18 billion takeover by Tilman Fertitta as new details about the deal emerge. Fertitta, the owner of the Golden Nugget casino chain, has been in talks to purchase Caesars for about $32 a share, according to people familiar with the discussions. There’s no certainty that a deal will be reached, but the parties are close.
🏛️Legislative updates
Maryland Not Joining The Ranks Of States Banning Sweeps This Year (Casino Reports): “Good legislative or regulatory news has been hard to find in 2025 and ’26 for supporters of sweepstakes gambling sites, but Maryland became an exception last week by allowing time to run out on an attempted sweeps ban this session. … The House proceeded to pass both HB 295 and HB 1226 in March, but neither bill made it out of the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee before Maryland’s legislative session concluded on April 13, meaning the sites can continue operating in the state until the issue is taken up again in 2027.”
Tennessee House Advances Bill to Ban Sweepstakes Casinos (Covers): “A bill targeting online sweepstakes casinos has been making headway in the Tennessee legislature, as lawmakers advanced House Bill 1885 by unanimous vote, sending it out of the House Finance, Ways, and Means Committee. The bill now heads to the Calendar and Rules Committee for review on Thursday.”
‘It has nothing to do with gambling, he’s losing this race’: State Rep. Rehm, BCA-backed David Money battle over sports betting, ACF in heated HD85 contest (1819 News): “The race for the Republican nomination for Alabama's House District 85 (HD85) recently took a negative turn when a challenger accused the incumbent of being "bought and paid for by an out-of-state gambling interest …”
The accusations involve a new boogeyman in Alabama’s political scene, the American Conservative Fund (ACF) PAC. The Virginia-based entity registered with the State of Alabama in January 2025 after initially receiving a $500,000 donation from Win For America, a PAC funded entirely by a $2 million donation from DK Crown Holdings, Inc., the corporate entity for DraftKings.
🔮Prediction markets
Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling toward the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake (Fortune): “Right now it is the industry,” says Dustin Gouker, describing how much sports betting contributes to the prediction markets industry. Gouker, who publishes a newsletter devoted to the sector, believes that other categories, including wagers related to politics and crypto prices, will make up a greater share of prediction market bets over time.”
You can’t beat the house: A portfolio manager’s POV on prediction markets and sports betting (Investment News): For a growing number of retail users, that means the ability to trade on everything from election outcomes and macroeconomic data to sports and crypto events. For advisors, it raises a more basic question: is this investing, or just a new wrapper on gambling behavior that can quietly undermine clients’ plans? Brian Jacobs, a portfolio manager and advisor at Aptus Capital, leans firmly toward the latter view.
“It used to be that you’d have to drive to a casino to lose money. Now you can do it in your bedroom, on your phone, the moment you wake up,” Jacobs told InvestmentNews. “To me, it’s more akin to betting and gambling than investing.”
My latest on prediction markets:
The New Normal: Regulated Gaming Pushes Back on Prediction Markets (webinar, Wednesday 1 pm Eastern): Prediction markets have moved past the early questions of definition and into a period of direct confrontation. What was once framed as regulatory ambiguity is now an active challenge to the structure of lawful gaming. As event contracts scale and operators press their position under federal oversight, the response from regulated gaming has sharpened. The American Gaming Association is no longer signaling concern. It is organizing a coordinated pushback with states, attorneys general, policymakers, and industry stakeholders against what it views as an encroachment on established authority, market integrity, and the rule of law.
In this episode of The New Normal, we’re joined by Tres York, Vice President of Government Relations at the American Gaming Association, to examine how that response is taking shape and where it is heading. The conversation will focus on strategy, not definitions. It will assess how pressure is being applied across legal, political, and enforcement channels, and what is at risk if this moment does not produce a decisive outcome.
Ifrah Law has been at the center of advancing iGaming in the U.S., shaping groundbreaking legislation, leading precedent-setting cases, and guiding clients that span the iGaming ecosystem through every phase of their business journey. Learn more at IfrahLaw.com.
📖 Other things you should know/read
America Needs Better Gambling Policy (4AM Club): “In the last year, the CFTC essentially opened sports betting to every state and every American 18+ via prediction markets. An uneven patchwork of state laws still regulates the online sportsbook market. Meanwhile, the offshore market has boomed, with more Americans using VPNs to access platforms like Stake. US gambling policy is currently a wild west. But it must be handled delicately.”
“Basically every gambling founder and CEO I’ve ever met agrees. You’ll rarely hear a regulated-market founder not take responsible gambling seriously. Why? Because founders are genuinely motivated by gambling as a form of entertainment, not a means of exploiting customers. And because they know that if the gambling industry pushes too hard, it risks a Black Friday political event that wrecks the industry.”
Worried about sports gambling safety? Legalize it. (Minnesota Star-Tribune, paywall): “An absence of legalization doesn’t mean an absence of harm — Minnesota residents are placing risky online sports bets daily.”
It’s Getting Harder to Tell Investing From Gambling, and It’s Not Your Fault (WSJ): “A kind of gambling fever seems to be setting in. In February and March, asset managers filed to launch dozens of exchange-traded funds that would seek to quadruple or even quintuple the daily returns on stocks and other assets, even though regulators have reportedly indicated they might not be approved. On prediction markets, you can bet whether the price of bitcoin will go up or down in the next five to 15 minutes—24 hours a day.”
Gambling, Drugs, and Porn: What I Learned at a Conference on Vice Policy (How Gambling Works): “Are Americans—and young men especially—engaging in more vice than ever before? What qualifies as a vice? And is it any of the government’s business? These were some of the questions posed at a recent conference hosted by the Center for Expanding Viewpoints in Higher Education at Tufts University. I participated in the opening panel, along with Charles Fain Lehman of the Manhattan Institute and Shaleen Title, a lawyer and activist who formerly served as a commissioner on Massachusetts’s Cannabis Control Commission, with Ian Cross of WGBH moderating.”
Kentucky Derby keeps place in culture despite decline of horse racing (Courier Journal): “The Kentucky Derby maintains its appeal even as horse racing as a whole has faded in importance and in the collective attention of sports fans. It may even be more embedded nationally in our culture now than it’s ever been. Look around the country. It’s darn near celebrated like a national holiday.”
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📣 Industry news
A look at US online casino trends:
BetMGM Secures Exclusive First-To-Market Rights For Upcoming
AGS Rakin’ Bacon! Titles (press release): BetMGM, a leading iGaming and sports betting operator, announced a continuing partnership with AGS, a leading supplier of high-performing slot, table, and online gaming products, to debut new titles from the Rakin’ Bacon!® franchise. BetMGM will have a period of exclusivity for the new games, available at BetMGM and Borgata Online Casino.Upcoming release schedule:
Rakin’ Bacon! Triple Oink Soda Fountain Fortunes - Available Now
Rakin’ Bacon! Triple Oink San Shen Zhu – Available May 12
Rakin’ Bacon! Fu Zhu Bao Bao – Available July 2
“The Rakin’ Bacon! franchise is a proven mainstay on casino floors and online,” said Oliver Bartlett, Senior Vice President of Gaming at BetMGM. “Securing first-to-market rights is a natural extension of the strong relationship we’ve built with top-tier game suppliers like AGS. As a premier online casino destination, it is our commitment to offer players first access to the most anticipated titles.”
Led by Cornsquealius, the recognizable golden piggy bank character, Rakin’ Bacon! games have consistently ranked among BetMGM’s top performers, with two slot titles from the franchise placing among the platform’s top 15 iGaming offerings in 2025. What began with a traditional pot-collection bonus and five-of-a-kind pays has grown into a suite of styles and features that reflect both player trends and the brand’s creative evolution.
FY 2025: Bally’s deal drives 35% revenue growth at Intralot (Next.io): “Bally’s Intralot reported a 34.8% year-on-year rise in group revenue for 2025 following the merger of the two companies in Q4, though it also revealed a fall in underlying EBITDA and B2B revenue.”
🌍 Outside of the US
More Than 30 Companies Interested In Alberta Online Casino Market (Legal Sports Report): “The Alberta online casino market already has 33 applications from companies ready for the upcoming launch in July. Service Alberta Minister Dave Nally told local media last week that there are 33 operators that have applied for a license, 20 of which have already paid their deposit. The most recent announcement came from DraftKings, which opened preregistration last week.”
What do industry experts consider the biggest issues affecting sports betting in Europe? (iGB): “Globally, sports betting is one of the most exciting products right now, with fans across the world engaging in gambling on football, tennis, golf and more. But in Europe, the industry’s spiritual home, regulated operators are being squeezed out with pressure coming from several different directions.”
Industry pressure mounting for Mexico to modernise gambling regulation (iGB): “With long-awaited reforms to Mexico’s gambling regulatory framework still pending, industry stakeholders are urging authorities to accelerate progress and provide long-overdue clarity.”