The Early Line: What The NFL Said About Prediction Markets On A Media Call
Gambling news roundup: What to make of Ohio's new stance on prediction markets; Fanatics secures deal for Missouri sports betting.
The Early Line offers a look at the top stories heading into the week, along with some analysis.
NFL talks prediction markets on media call: The NFL held a call for the media to talk about everything it’s doing in sports betting ahead of the season, something it has done in recent years. The most interesting part, at least for me, was the NFL updating its position on sports betting via prediction markets.
Perhaps the key takeaway from an NFL executive on the call: “…We're concerned that if these markets aren't properly regulated, they could be susceptible to manipulation or price distortion.” And also that prediction markets “mimic sports betting.” Here’s the transcript of what was said on PMs:
David Highhill, Vice President, Sports Betting: “…I think we submitted public comment to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in August of ‘24, so those are comments that we’re happy to pass along. I think what's important about the sports betting markets right now that are legal is that they have robust protections that include information sharing between sportsbooks and the leagues. There's integrity monitoring requirements, there's prohibitions on certain types of wagers or markets that are more subject to influence. There's the requirements sometimes to use consistent and reliable official league data, and there's also mandatory responsible betting requirements and resources. As it pertains to prediction markets, there's ongoing litigation around whether they should be prohibited or who should regulate those, whether that's the federal government, states through the state-regulated scheme. I think for us, the key distinction is that, for now, prediction markets lack certain regulatory requirements that we know regulated sportsbooks are subject to. Like information sharing, responsible betting tools, the objectionable bet prohibitions. So, for us, we're concerned that if these markets aren't properly regulated, they could be susceptible to manipulation or price distortion. So, however this comes to be through the legal channels, I think it's really important that we take advantage of the robust framework that we've put in place via the legalized sports betting process, and all leagues have the same types of protections in place.”
Sabrina Perel, Vice President, Chief Compliance Officer: “And we, on the policy side, so our view is that these platforms mimic sports betting. And that they are covered as prohibited conduct under our policy. That would be for all of our personnel. And now we're educating on this point as well, specifically stating that engaging in these platforms would be prohibited under the policy.”
The NFL did send a letter to the CFTC last year — before the explosion of sports betting via prediction markets — noting some of these same concerns:
More coverage of the call via InGame; the call had very little to do with prediction markets! And from The Associated Press.
Reading the line: This is much like what we have heard from other pro sports leagues in recent months. They are worried about prediction markets from an integrity and responsible gambling standpoint, among other issues. But because the future could be in prediction markets, they won’t put the whole industry on blast. The NFL and other leagues insist they want to see a “framework” and “regulations” that address sports event contracts, but that seems exceedingly unlikely as things stand. Sports betting via the CFTC is going to continue with existing guidelines, and nothing new from a regulatory standpoint.
The NFL and other leagues are likely going to have to try to get what they want via private partnerships or self-regulation, and even then it’s not clear Kalshi et al will ever do everything that the NFL wants. Pro sports leagues (and the NCAA) are also going to be confronted with an ever-growing number of platforms that will be hard to rein in under one yoke. Right now we have Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood. Polymarket could be coming soon. And god only knows how many other operators there might be if the courts don’t shut down prediction markets. I don’t envy the leagues trying to navigate all this. But the idea that we’re getting new federal regulation for sports event contracts flies in the face of everything we currently know... unless the NFL thinks it has a real chance to pass new legislation in Congress.
Prediction markets don’t want to call what they offer “gambling.” So offering the same responsible gambling protocols and messaging that exists in the state-regulated sports betting industry will be a difficult, if not impossible, lift.
My post below seems pretty relevant as leagues consider how to deal with prediction markets. Robinhood doesn’t appear to be worried about any game integrity concerns:
Connamara Technologies is powering groundbreaking prediction markets like ForecastEx and Railbird Exchange with its EP3® exchange and clearing platform. From elections and weather to sports and pop culture, EP3 has the flexibility, reliability, and scalability needed for any market. Learn more at www.connamara.tech.
Ohio Regulator Warns Sportsbooks About Offering Prediction Markets: “A letter from the Ohio Casino Control Commission warned sportsbooks about trying to offer prediction markets based on sporting events. … The letter, dated Monday and obtained by The Closing Line, makes it clear the OCCC would not tolerate offering sports betting via a prediction market without a proper license and vetting.”
Reading the line: I just published this to this newsletter this morning, but I have a few more thoughts. I’ll try to clear up what’s not OK, and what might be, based on what Ohio regulators say:
What’s not ok?
Offering sports event contracts in Ohio, only under the auspices of federal regulation. You can’t do it without a license specifically in Ohio. That’s not terribly new, as the OCCC sent cease-and-desist letters this spring about this issue.
Working with a prediction market platform to offer sports event contracts anywhere, if that platform offers sports event contracts in Ohio. Let’s say that DraftKings wants to do a deal with Kalshi like Robinhood has. That’s apparently not allowed, according to the OCCC, if the platform (ie Kalshi) is allowing trades in Ohio. An arrangement like that could put an Ohio license at risk. Seeing as the CFTC-regulated prediction markets believe the product is legal in 50 states, and that their legal arguments hinge upon that concept, it would seem unlikely they would give up a state in order to work with a sportsbook.
What is OK? This is a little tougher to get at, however, we’ll give it a go:
Sportsbook operators can offer "exchange wagering” under existing law. There do seem to be ways for sportsbooks to thread the needle and do sports event contracts in Ohio if they are willing to license a separate product or get approval via an existing license. It might also have to be ring-fenced to Ohio? That last part is not entirely clear, but that would be my guess.
Sportsbook operators can 1. offer sports event contracts in other states and/or 2. work with a prediction market platform in the rest of the country if either the operator or the platform doesn’t offer sports event contracts in Ohio. At least that’s how the letter reads without explicitly saying as much.
The Ohio guidance seemingly kills the idea of an existing prediction market working with a sportsbook. Kalshi had positioned itself to ink these kinds of deals with the regulated sports betting industry, and they may now be off the table because of one state. A sportsbook cannot forego an Ohio license just to do PMs and Kalshi et al are not likely to pull out of states just to do deals with sportsbooks. (I think.)
You have to imagine that other states will consider following in Ohio’s footsteps, privately if not publicly. At the end of the day, sportsbooks may only want to serve the states that have no legal sports betting as things stand. This kind of regulatory pushback from a state with legal sports betting always seemed likely.
More gambling news
US Sports Betting Enters Football Season On Record Pace (Legal Sports Report): “Legal sports betting operators in the US are riding a heater into the busiest stretch of the year, poised for another string of record-setting revenue reports to close out 2025. Football betting season has arrived again, and with it comes a huge surge in overall interest from a wave of new and reactivated customers. The next five months of results will go a long way toward determining the winners and losers for the year. The regulated sports betting industry is on pace for a record $164 billion in handle across all markets in 2025, up 9.5% from 2024. Revenue looks even better, 17% ahead of the pace and tracking toward $16 billion by the end of the year. These numbers don’t include Florida, a massive market that launched in late 2023 but does not report data to the public.”
New book: How gambling and game-fixing allegations nearly sank Bear Bryant (Yahoo): “The Auburn-Alabama football rivalry is one of the fiercest and most consequential in college football, with 27 national championships (and counting) between the two Yellowhammer State rivals. A new book, IRON IN THE BLOOD, by Yahoo Sports senior writer Jay Busbee, traces the entirety of the rivalry, from the origins of both schools right on through 2025, with deep dives on the most significant moments and figures in the rivalry, from the Kick Six to Ken Stabler, Gravedigger to Bo Jackson, Punt Bama Punt to Nick Saban.”
CNN airs sports betting special: I noted last week that this was airing, and I don’t think you can see the whole thing for free anywhere, unless you recorded it via a streaming service or cable. You can watch it here with a subscription (and see the trailer below).
As someone who has consumed a lot of mainstream sports betting coverage over the past decade, there’s not much new here…it’s a lot of the same stuff that has come up in similar long-form sports betting pieces. That’s not to say it’s not worth covering the current state of affairs, but there wasn’t much ground-breaking, other than an attempt to tell the “sharp” side of things. We also heard from Danny Funt, who is publishing a book on sports betting.
I continue to maintain everyone is living in the past as we are moving into an era of sports betting in 50 states, for everyone 18 and over, on platforms that refuse to admit that sports betting is gambling. But many of you already know the soapbox I stand on. But a new Slate story (scroll down) is finally moving us in that direction.
There was a pretty unfortunate soundbite from American Gaming Association president Bill Miller calling comparisons to substance abuse “abhorrent.” That’s… not great! I would agree that tobacco use in particular is in reality a bad comp — cigarettes have bad health repercussions for nearly everyone, both the smoker and people around them — in a way that gambling does not. (Tobacco is a particularly personal issue for me, as both my parents were heavy smokers and it led to a variety of health issues for my dad. Also, let’s please ban cigarettes at casinos, while we’re talking about this topic.) In any event, the gambling industry needs not to be defensive or reactionary when comparisons like this come up. Yes, gambling creates problems; that’s not really in question. I feel encouraged that there seems to be more going on in responsible gambling, including from the AGA, in recent months than we got in a lot of the first seven years of expanded sports betting. But that doesn’t mean there’s not a long way to go, or that we shouldn’t take a mirror to the industry.
More on one part of the piece here: “A former Jacksonville Jaguars employee who is currently serving a federal sentence for stealing more than $22 million from the team over three years told CNN he planned to put all of the money back into the team’s account, but he lost it gambling online.”
If you want a more detailed look at the CNN piece, Steve Ruddock said he is covering it in his newsletter tomorrow.
The Legalized Gambling Industry Is Collapsing in on Itself | You’ll soon be able to bet on elections, the Super Bowl, and the papal conclave, all in one place (Slate, paywall): “Prediction markets like Polymarket — best known for bets on current events like elections, market trends, or celebrity news — haven’t been fully legalized the way sports-betting apps have, with the blessing of the nation’s highest court. But thanks to political connections, and a regulatory system gutted and captured by private interests, they’ve been allowed to operate more freely than ever before. And they’re using that to expand their gambling ambitions into the sporting world, to the ire of Native American reservations that rely on sportsbook revenue, as well as the established companies (DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, etc.) still earning their operational licenses state by state.”
Not sure why the headline says “soon”… you can already do all of those things at a prediction market!
The Explosion of Gambling in Tennis (NY Times, paywall): “It’s become a multimillion-dollar business, with gambling sites sponsoring tournaments. But when some gamblers lose, they have threatened players.”
Fanatics Betting and Gaming, Boyd Gaming Announce Missouri Partnership (press release): “Today, Fanatics Betting and Gaming announced that it is partnering with Boyd Gaming Corporation in the state of Missouri. Under the terms of their multi-year agreement, Fanatics Sportsbook will operate mobile sports betting under Boyd’s sports betting license in Missouri. The companies will open Fanatics-branded retail sportsbooks at Boyd’s Ameristar Casino Hotel Kansas City and Ameristar Casino Resort and Spa St. Charles, located near St. Louis. Fanatics plans to launch its online and retail betting products with the debut of regulated sports wagering in Missouri this December, contingent upon receipt of all required regulatory approvals. Upon launching this December, sports fans across Missouri will be able to download the Fanatics Sportsbook on iOS and Android and begin their Fanatics experience. Winning Hits Different in Missouri on Fanatics Sportsbook with up to 10% FanCash back on every bet, win or lose; Fair Play™ injury protection; and events and experiences that only Fanatics can pull off. The Fanatics Sportsbook retail locations at the two Ameristar casinos in Missouri will cater to guests looking to enjoy the ultimate sportsbook experience, offering legal betting markets for all major sports including professional and college football, basketball, hockey, baseball, tennis, soccer, golf, MMA, boxing and more.”
Flutter to stop Junglee real-money gaming operations in India due to
unexpected regulatory change (press release): “Flutter Entertainment plc, the world’s leading online sports betting and iGaming operator notes sudden regulatory developments in India, prohibiting real-money gaming products, including games of skill. The legalisation of the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill was passed by the upper house of the Indian Parliament and received Presidential assent on August 22, 2025. This occurred within an exceptionally short timeframe having only been introduced into Parliament on August 20, 2025, and without a consultation process with industry stakeholders to consider the significant adverse consequences of this action. Flutter is disappointed with this development and has consequently stopped its real-money
operations in India effective from August 22, 2025 to comply with this new legislation. Flutter is actively evaluating options to encourage the restoration of the 70-year-old constitutional protection afforded to skill-based games, while simultaneously working quickly to adapt operations to the changed regulatory landscape and continuing to promote the benefits of fully regulated products. Flutter’s Indian operations were expected to contribute approximately $200m revenue and $50m Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, with approximately half of the profits to be delivered in the second half of 2025. We are also assessing the accounting implications including any non-cash impairments to the Junglee business and will provide additional disclosures as conclusions are made.”
CEO Peter Jackson commented: “I am extremely disappointed with the sudden changes to the regulatory landscape in India. Over the last four years Junglee has invested significantly in its local market, building a workforce of over 1,100 employees to deliver innovative skill-based gaming products to Indian customers. Central to this has been a strategy which prioritizes consumer protections and responsible gaming. We believe this change will drive customers to the unregulated market, offering limited consumer protections and providing no contribution to the local economy. We believe in regulatory frameworks that put customers first, and are evaluating options to restore skill-based games in the Indian market.”
FanDuel’s Trusted Voices: Conversations About Betting is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs, risks and proxy betting. The program is led by retired professional basketball player Randy Livingston and his wife, basketball agent Anita Smith, who share their personal stories related to problem gambling, with the hope of preventing others from experiencing similar harms. Learn more and join the conversation here.
