The Takeaway: Choose Your Own Adventure In US Online Gambling's Future
So you want to be in online gambling in the US? If you want to be involved, there’s maybe never been a better or worse opportunity, depending on how you look at things.
“May you live in interesting times” seems to sum up the current landscape, where there are ample opportunities to approach the market in a variety of ways, from fully regulated, to quasi-regulated, to not regulated at all.
I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books when I was a kid. Couldn’t get enough of them. You start to read the book, and at various points, there would be a decision tree. You make a choice, and you would flip to a different page depending on what that decision would be. Your story would continue; sometimes things would go poorly (you might even die and the story would be over), and sometimes you would get a happy ending.
Reading a book is of course very low leverage vs. choosing your own adventure in online gambling, where the stakes are high and the choices aren’t easy. Here are the tacks being employed at a high level:
Join 100s of operators automating their trading with OpticOdds.
Backed by the resources of $GAMB, OpticOdds has the industry's most advanced, comprehensive odds data and is poised to drive innovation and growth like never before.
Join the OpticOdds team at ICE2025 📅
Trying to block the expansion of US online gambling to keep gambling as land-based as possible. I understand why some companies and gaming entities do this, as it’s safer for their core business. But it ignores what customers are showing us they want via both regulated and unregulated options, and in every industry that isn’t gambling.
Leaning into a regulated approach to the market via states that specifically legalize online gambling. This has been good for the early movers. But the side of the road is already littered with operators who couldn’t make it, and it’s hard to see challenger brands coming and contesting the top of the market. That’s not to mention that the expansion of regulated online gambling faces a tough road ahead.
Offering or exploring gray/quasi-regulated/unregulated options. I’d venture a guess that nearly every operator in the space has at least considered what its strategy might be to attack the market outside of the regulated sphere. That includes things like sweepstakes, fantasy pick’em/parlays, prediction markets and skill gaming. DraftKings and FanDuel of course have offered daily fantasy as a gray product for more than a decade; that form of DFS is considerably less gray today, to the point it’s hard to see pushback ever manifesting again (outside of perhaps California). DraftKings also offers peer-to-peer fantasy pick’em, while FanDuel offers real-money skill gaming via its Faceoff platform.
Skipping the regulated market entirely to offer online gaming in other ways — sweeps, fantasy, etc. All these offerings are nominally legal — at least until someone says they’re not — all with varying risk profiles moving forward. Out of that bucket of options, sweeps and prediction markets face the most uncertain future, but I’d bet on them existing in some form rather than going away entirely over time.
The thing is, because of the dynamics of No. 2, it’s hard to see how banking entirely on the regulated market is a viable strategy moving forward. Why would you choose the regulated market if you want to get started in online gambling? You’re going up against established brands. It’s expensive. Policymakers are looking for ways to make it harder to do business and increase taxes. I am a huge proponent of the regulated market, but I’d choose any of those other verticals first, even with the associated risk.
And if you’re one of the established operators, I wouldn’t love the immediate future either. Here’s Eilers & Krejcik predicting no new states going online this year. You get dumped on incessantly by the media. Can you afford to stand pat waiting for new markets while other companies find ways to operate:
in states you aren’t in (most notably California, Texas)
with less (or zero) regulation
with lower taxes and fees
with products you don’t have?
I understand the choices aren’t easy, that gaming licenses are at stake, etc. But it will be interesting to see where the adventure takes operators in 2025 and beyond.
Ifrah Law has been at the center of advancing iGaming in the U.S., shaping groundbreaking legislation, leading precedent-setting cases, and guiding clients that span the iGaming ecosystem through every phase of their business journey. Learn more at IfrahLaw.com.
Gambling news roundup today
Lots of US news of late; let’s get to it. We’ll start with legislative updates:
Gambling legislation
Indiana online casino bill: Indiana has long been one of the industry’s targets for online casino legalization, with efforts falling short or barely getting started in recent years. If passed it would allow a very open market for operators, but roadblocks still seemingly stand in the way of the legislation. The bill would also seek to regulate online lottery sales. Bill | Story
Wyoming online casino bill: It’s a pretty industry-friendly bill, with at least five licenses and financials that are not burdensome. Passage in 2024 seems like it’s an underdog. Bill | Story
Maryland sports betting tax hike: Gov. Wes Moore is proposing that the tax on Maryland sports betting revenue should be doubled, from 15% to 30%. The budget also proposes a small increase on the tax rate for table games at land-based casinos. Maryland is also a state with an online casino bill. Proposed budget | Story
NJ sweepstakes bill: The legislation is a shell that says only that it “Designates sweepstakes casinos as internet gaming; requires licensure, oversight, and taxation thereof within internet gaming framework.” Based on the reaction it would likely seek to give the sweepstakes casino industry some legal clarity in the current climate. From the Social and Promotional Games Association: “The SPGA welcomes Assemblyman Calabrese’s bill. The SPGA and its members are advocates for clear regulations that enable transparent, innovative, and responsible social and promotional gaming experiences.” Getting a bill to the finish line in the first state to legalize online casinos seems like a big lift, but you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. Bill | Story
Texas sports betting is looking “bleak” according to Houston Business Journal report (paywall): “‘I would say the chances are bleak, if not very bleak, that this is going to go anywhere,’ said Renée Cross, senior executive director of the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.”
Other gambling news
FanDuel goes live in Puerto Rico (FanDuel PR): FanDuel, North America's premier online gaming company, announced the availability of FanDuel Sportsbook within Puerto Rico and the opening of a new retail sportsbook in partnership with CAGE Puerto Rico II ("CAGE Sports") at #53 Edificio El Caribe, Calle Palmeras in San Juan. Puerto Rican residents who are at least 18 years of age can visit the FanDuel Sportsbook in partnership with CAGE Sports in San Juan to register with FanDuel and set up an account. Tourists and visitors can register as well and enjoy placing bets during their stay. Customers must sign up in-person at the retail location to use the FanDuel Sportsbook app.”
CFTC targets Crypto.com sports markets (CFTC PR): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced it is initiating a review of Crypto.com’s sports futures markets that went live late last year, such as betting on the Super Bowl. It also asked the crypto and trading platform to take down its markets; Crypto.com has said it has no intention of complying with that ask.
A followup on Maryland and sweepstakes: The Closing Line was first to report that six sweepstakes operators were targeted with cease-and-desist orders in MD. TCL understands those C&D’s went out some time ago, even though they came to light just yesterday. Here’s part of the comment offered to TCL by the Social and Promotional Games Association on Maryland: “We emphatically reject the characterization of any properly operating social sweeps site as ‘illegal online gaming.’ SPGA members operate under all applicable rules and regulations established for sweepstakes promotions.” I would bet the over on 0.5 states issuing a similar action in the coming months.
Kick buying TikTok? There’s a metric ton of rumors and speculation about TikTok’s future in the coming days. That includes reports it would pull out of the country on Sunday, and that President Joe Biden or President-Elect Donald Trump would try to save TikTok before it exits. Now Kick’s Twitter account shared a “letter of intent” to buy TikTok; it’s not clear how serious this offer is. This is at least tangentially a story about gambling if Kick gets involved, as its founders also founded Stake.com and gambling content features prominently on the platform. TikTok takes a less cavalier attitude toward gambling content currently.
Offshore online gambling targeted in Virginia? (Covers): More from Covers: “A spokesperson for the state police told Covers on Tuesday that Sgt. Johnson plans to consult with the Attorney General’s Office about the possibility of cease-and-desist letters for offshore sites. However, the decision on those letters rests with the AG’s office, public relations coordinator Matthew Demlein noted.” States continue to ponder actions to stop offshore operators, but there probably comes a tipping point at which they don’t comply with every last request/order.
Geocomply shares geolocation data from states without regulated sports betting (Geocomply): “GeoComply’s proprietary geolocation technology enables us to identify devices attempting to access legal sportsbooks. When potential bettors in unregulated states attempt to access these sportsbooks, they are prevented from placing wagers — a clear indication of demand that legislation could fulfill. Here’s a snapshot of the data:”
National Council on Problem Gambling to get new leader (NCPG PR): “The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) Board of Directors today announced the departure of Keith Whyte from his position as Executive Director, effective as of January 13, 2025. Nancy Green, FASAE, CAE, has been appointed as Interim Executive Director.”
Kindbridge offers free trauma counseling in LA (Kindbridge site): “In response to the Los Angeles area wildfires, we are offering free trauma therapy for residents and first responders in the community. All appointments are available through our telehealth platform. Scheduling an appointment only takes a moment.” Kindbridge works on gambling support, treatment and therapy and partners with a number of sportsbooks and fantasy pick’em apps.
Closing Line Consulting
Need help with gambling content, navigating the North American gaming industry, communications/PR, or research and analysis? I have a consultancy to help in gaming and beyond. Reach out if you want to have a conversation. Learn more about CLC here.
Want to sponsor The Closing Line?
You can email dustin@closinglineconsulting.com for more information, and see more below.
