The Takeaway: Digging Into The Latest Sports Betting Poll
Gambling news today: Bad news for both sports betting and lottery couriers in Texas
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A new poll on sentiments around sports betting came out from Siena College and St. Bonaventure University. You can check it out here.
There are some interesting sentiments captured by the poll. But I had a bit of problem even getting past the headline, to be honest: “22% of All Americans, Half of Men 18-49, Have Active Online Sports Betting Account.”
So let’s start with that: how many bettors have an “active online sports betting account”? Well, there are roughly 260 million adults in the US. So that’s asking us to believe that there are about 57 million people with an “active” sports betting account. The number for men 18-49 would be about 27 million based on current demographics.
Those numbers seem incredibly high to me, if we’re trying to isolate bettors at legal sportsbooks. Now consider:
This poll — from its questioning and methodology — is trying to capture activity in the regulated sports betting market and at legal apps.
DraftKings and FanDuel both report south of 4 million monthly active users. And there is some (likely a lot) of crossover between users of those two apps.
Every other US-facing regulated sports betting app has far fewer users than that. And again, each one of their users is not unique to their platform.
Legal online sportsbooks are not in every state — most notably they don’t serve Texas and California.
In any event, we’re left with a few possibilities for why this number is so large, given the above points:
The poll is capturing far more users than there are at legal sports betting apps, including people using offshore sportsbooks and/or gray market products that approximate sports betting.
These poll numbers are incredibly inflated outside of No. 1.
The poll isn’t really identifying “active” bettors in a meaningful way. (It’s worth noting, for instance, that the poll reports that only 83% of respondents with a sports betting account have actually placed a bet, which is kind of a wild number.)
Some combination of all of these is the most likely answer for how we get to the top-line numbers. But I digress; I’ll try not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Let’s get to the rest.
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Here’s more on the bettor behavior/experience and general sentiment front, which are probably a little easier to extrapolate to the larger population:
“Online sports betting should be legal in all 50 states.” 50% agreed, 34% disagreed.
A large majority — 58-28% — want “the federal government to aggressively regulate online sports betting to specifically protect customers from compulsive gambling.”
63% supported the Congressional SAFE Bet Act when it was described to them.
58% say they see an advertisement for an online sportsbook either very or somewhat often. That number is up from the 2024 version of this poll.
“I like how now during games or pregame shows, they discuss not only the betting odds but offer tips on betting as well.” 44% disagreed, 38% agreed.
“Online sports betting will corrupt organized sports.” 48% agreed, 35% disagreed.
There were several questions about responsible or problem gambling behaviors:
“Do you use features on online sports betting apps designed to help users bet responsibly, such as by placing deposit limits, daily time limits, ‘cool-off’ periods and so on?” 50% said they did.
“Have you ever felt that you bet more than you should on an online sportsbook?” 37% answered yes.
“Do you know anyone that has or has had a problem with online sports betting?” 16% said yes.
65% of respondents said they believe online sports betting will create compulsive gamblers.
Respondents were evenly split on if sportsbooks do a good job “monitoring and responding to the dangers of compulsive gambling.”
We see the idea that sports bettors think they win more than they actually do, which is common in most polls I have seen. “Q: Thinking about the bets you’ve made on online sportsbooks, would you say that you win more than you lose, lose more than you win, or that you usually break even?” In the poll, 30% said they win more than they lose, and 33% said they break even. Given that US sportsbooks routinely hold more than 10% of all bets as an industry, those numbers don’t mesh with reality.
What can we make of the poll? If we’re giving some stock to the reliability, people don’t hate sports betting and advertising around it quite as much as we’re led to believe. But concerns about sports betting and the impact it has on people and sports are still alive and well.
Gambling news roundup
Will Texas get casinos and sports betting? That fight is underway at the Legislature (Dallas Morning News, paywall): “With support in the Legislature still on shaky ground, the focus this session is on leveraging public support for gambling by pushing amendments to the Texas Constitution – putting the legalization of casinos and sports betting before voters in November.”
It’s an interesting read on the lay of the land in Texas, which remains a challenging proposition for sports betting legalization.
This seems pretty concerning to have this kind of animus against gambling in the state: “Rep. Matt Shaheen, R-Prosper, opposes expanding gambling, saying casinos and sports betting would do more harm than good. ‘I have a whole coalition of organizations, and we’re going to make sure it’s dead, that it’s six feet under,’ Shaheen said.”
Texas lottery on the chopping block because of couriers? (Fox 7 Austin): Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick seems to be very motivated on the issue, after a winning ticket in Texas was purchased via DraftKings-owned Jackpocket: “‘We banned courier services last year. The bill passed 29-to-2; that's bipartisan, and it died in the House,’ said Patrick. ‘We're going to pass that same bill again.’ Patrick said it could be the end of the lottery if the bill does not pass. ‘Every 12 years, agencies are up for sunset, in various forms, so this time, the lottery happens to be up for sunset,’ said Patrick. ‘If we don't pass the sunset bill before we leave session, the lottery is out of business.’
Things are escalating quickly. I’ll bet “yes” on the Texas Lottery continuing to exist moving forward; last fiscal year, the lottery generated $2 billion for schools. The question is if Patrick will be able to leverage his current dislike of lottery couriers into getting the House to pass the Senate version of the bill. That seems like a more likely scenario. And that would become a real threat to the lottery courier business as a whole, if it loses Texas as part of its addressable market.
BetRivers Parent Stock Slides On Colombian Online Gaming VAT (Legal Sports Report): “The price of Rush Street Interactive slid for a second day Tuesday after the BetRivers operator said a Colombian state of emergency led to an additional gaming tax. The state of emergency was announced Jan. 24, followed by the 19% value-added tax on player deposits on Feb. 14. The presidential decree is automatically reviewed by the Constitutional Court of Colombia, which could still render the decree illegal.”
NASCAR, 1/ST do betting deal (press release): “NASCAR and 1/ST TECHNOLOGY, Thoroughbred racing and gaming’s largest technology company specializing in pari-mutuel betting solutions, today announced a first-of-its-kind pari-mutuel betting partnership that will power the stateside launch of pari-mutuel NASCAR wagering, across web, mobile app, digital channels and retail or event locations in eligible U.S. jurisdictions.”
‘Bookie’ Canceled at Max After Two Seasons (Variety): “‘Bookie’ has been canceled by Max after two seasons, Variety has learned exclusively. The comedy series starred Sebastian Maniscalco as a veteran bookmaker in Los Angeles who must fight to survive the legalization of sports gambling while navigating unstable clients. Created by Chuck Lorre and Nick Bakay, the show premiered on the Warner Bros. Discovery streamer in November 2023 and debuted its second season in December 2024.”
Gambling newsletters
Yesterday’s Closing Line:
Episode 13: New AGA Numbers Show How Online Gambling Is Growing The Pie
The American Gaming Association released its 2024 numbers for commercial casinos on Wednesday. The top-line numbers:
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