The Takeaway: Just How Much Of Kalshi Volume Is 'Not Sports'? Not Much!
Roundup: Sportsbook downloads are flat while Kalshi app downloads grow; Jontay Porter co-conspirator sentenced; sports betting handle in Massachusetts grows in December.
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I have repeated this statistic so many times that I feel like it has lost all meaning: Roughly 90% of trading volume at Kalshi is on sports.
What does that actually mean, beyond me repeating it, ad nauseam?
Let’s start with some baseline numbers:
Trailing 30-day volume (ending Jan. 20) at Kalshi is about $8.4 billion.
Sports was about $7.7 billion of that volume, or 91%.
Doing some quick math you can probably do in your head, too, that means non-sports markets accounted for $700 million or so in volume.
The narrative being pushed by some prediction markets evangelists is that “everything else” at Kalshi will eventually catch up. And while that’s possible in the medium- to long-term, that’s just not the case right now.
Kalshi’s head of crypto, John Wang, recently tweeted this:
Crypto markets are less than 3% of Kalshi volume in the trailing 30 days, for what it’s worth.
“Everything else” — politics, elections, mention markets, finance, crypto, culture, weather, etc. — is growing in raw dollars traded. But it is not growing in share of trading at Kalshi, which likely hasn’t gotten to anything resembling critical mass in sports betting.
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So let’s contextualize how small the stuff other than sports events is at Kalshi, with numbers I hope will better illustrate how sports betting dwarfs everything else.
How long does it take Kalshi to generate $700 million (again, that’s the figure for non-sports volume for the past month) in sports volume? Well, it can facilitate that much sports trading in just one weekend. There was more than $900 million in sports volume just last weekend (Saturday and Sunday). The previous Saturday and Sunday generated $875 million in sports volume.
If we drill down to just football, Kalshi can match non-sports volume in a very short timeframe. The most recent Saturday-Monday saw $650 million in volume across the college football national championship, four NFL playoff games and other futures.
Let’s look at it another way: Which sports account for more volume than non-sports markets? Again, I’ll use that $700 million figure as a benchmark for the trailing 30 days:
Football (college and pro): $3.1 billion
Basketball (college and pro): $2.9 billion
If we break that down further, moneyline betting only (who wins a game) on the NBA was $1.4 billion. Moneyline betting on college games was $828 million.
You can also combine volume on soccer, tennis and hockey only — about $867 million — and eclipse the performance of non-sports markets.
Here are some other fun ways to compare sports to non-sports:
The biggest overarching category outside of sports is crypto markets ($237 million). That’s less than just football volume this past Saturday.
Bitcoin price markets alone generated $136 million in volume. That’s less than the volume just on NBA points spreads for the month ($143 million).
Climate and weather markets accounted for $92 million in volume. That’s less than was traded on who would win the national championship in football.
Entertainment markets accounted for about $60 million. That’s less than has been traded on who will win the Super Bowl.
The biggest non-sports market of the month was who President Trump will nominate to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, at $31 million in volume. That’s less than was traded on Serie A matches (that’s Italian pro soccer if you aren’t familiar.)
It’s also interesting that Polymarket (the international/crypto version, not the US-regulated app) is far more diversified. I don’t track Polymarket myself, but you can see the breakdown by category here. Sports is a big part of Polymarket, but it’s not almost the entire thing.
The bottom line: Non-sports markets are Kalshi are bigger than a rounding error compared to sports markets. But not by much!
Before the roundup, here’s my latest on all things prediction markets, including green lights ahead from the CFTC:
Gambling news roundup
The Handle: Massachusetts Sports Betting Wagers Rose 8% To $845M In December (paywall): Massachusetts is the latest state to report December sports betting numbers:
Handle: $845M (+8% year over year)
Revenue: $102M (+72%)
Hold: 12.1%
Taxes: $19.6M
You can read the whole thing (paywalled) below, with a short preview before the paywall. The Handle is $2,000 annually for tons of data on US sports betting, online casinos and prediction markets; email me for a free trial at dustin@closinglineconsulting.com.
Jontay Porter Co-Conspirator Sentenced To 24 Months In Prison (InGame): “Timothy McCormack, who last year accepted a federal plea deal after being ensnared in the Jontay Porter and Terry Rozier sports corruption cases, was on Wednesday sentenced to 24 months in prison by Judge LaShann DeArcy Hall in the Eastern District of New York (EDNY). Federal prosecutors had sought at least 41 months. McCormack was the fourth co-defendant so far to accept plea deals stemming from conspiracies dating to 2023 and 2024, where first former Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter, then allegedly former Miami Heat player Terry Rozier (who has pled not guilty) colluded with gamblers to underperform for the purpose of profiting on prop bets.”
Kalshi eats into sportsbook app download share during NFL Playoffs (Next.io): “In an analysis by Jordan Bender of Citizens, data covering the Divisional Round period shows that sportsbook operators controlling roughly 99% of the legal US and Canadian sports betting market generated a combined 836,000 app downloads. This represents an overall 2% decrease from the same period last year. …
“In contrast, Kalshi emerged as the outlier in the broader sports wagering ecosystem. The prediction market platform accumulated approximately one million app downloads during the NFL playoffs, marking the highest two-week download market share in its history.”
Here’s a visual representation of app downloads
Geoff Zochodne@GeoffZochodneSo, according to Citizens, Kalshi's prediction market app has been downloaded around 4.4 million times during the NFL season, roughly the same number of DLs as FanDuel and more than DraftKings. Kalshi DLs during the NFL playoffs alone are ~1M, Citizens said in a note.
2:32 AM · Jan 21, 2026 · 1.69K Views2 Reposts · 9 Likes
Revived Massachusetts Bill Would Push Tax Rate to 51%, Eliminate Prop Bets (InGame): “A revived proposal in Massachusetts would dramatically revamp the face of legal online sports betting, as it calls for more than doubling the tax rate, eliminating VIP programs, banning prop and in-play bets, requiring affordability checks, and myriad other changes. … The latest version of the bill would increase the 20% tax rate to 51% for online sports betting, moving Massachusetts from a state with what operators consider to be a reasonable tax rate to one of the most highly taxed in the U.S.”
Missouri Examining Elimination of Certain NCAA Bets (Sports Betting Dime): “The Missouri Gaming Commission is evaluating the possibility of changing its sports betting catalogue just two months since launch. The commission is evaluating the possibility of eliminating NCAA player props and first-half unders after NCAA President Charlie Baker requested state gaming commissions prohibit those specific markets. Missouri sports betting currently does not allow any NCAA player prop bets on in-state teams, but does allow for player prop bets for out-of-state teams.”
Gambling tax deduction update: This account is a must-follow for staying up to date on what’s happening in Congress.
Fairplaygov@fairplaygovFull testimony from @repdinatitus on restoring 100% gambling tax loss deductibility
Fairplaygov @fairplaygovTitus is now in the room. If called to testify, the gambling tax deduction cap repeal is her only amendment filed. Testimony does not necessarily mean a vote on the amendment will happen. https://t.co/tE8EzN7v2y10:09 PM · Jan 21, 2026 · 13.6K Views8 Replies · 18 Reposts · 99 LikesFairplaygov@fairplaygovHouse Rules is now in recess while the full chamber votes on H.R. 6945 – Supporting Pregnant and Parenting Women and Families Act. We may still hear testimony on the gambling tax deduction cap reversal amendments from Titus and Horsford after the recess. Whether either getsFairplaygov @fairplaygovTitus is now in the room. If called to testify, the gambling tax deduction cap repeal is her only amendment filed. Testimony does not necessarily mean a vote on the amendment will happen. https://t.co/tE8EzN7v2y9:36 PM · Jan 21, 2026 · 634 Views1 Reply · 8 LikesSports-Betting Scandals Are Ubiquitous. Whether Fans Will Care Is an Open Question. (New York Times, paywall): When the podcaster Van Lathan heard about the sports-betting and poker indictments that ensnared two active N.B.A. figures last fall, it didn’t make him want to stop watching the N.B.A.
In fact, just the opposite. Mr. Lathan, who hosts shows about sports and culture on The Ringer, previously had little interest in the Portland Trail Blazers. But when the team’s head coach, Chauncey Billups, was arrested by the F.B.I. on the second day of the N.B.A. season and accused of working with the Mafia, Mr. Lathan wanted to know how the team would react. So he tuned in that night.
He wasn’t alone. In the days after the arrests, the N.B.A. had its most-watched opening week since 2017. Viewership the night the F.B.I. held its news conference was 60 percent higher than for the previous year. The league announced that Mr. Billups and Terry Rozier, the player involved, had been placed on leave, and then resumed promoting its new season.
This Dream Sports-Betting Job Comes With One Little Catch (WSJ, paywall): “Susquehanna already has around 60 traders focused on prediction markets. It wants to hire more.”
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AIBM launches sports betting policy hub to address rising harms — especially for young men (press release): Today, the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM), in partnership with Arnold Ventures, announced the launch of a new Sports Betting Policy Hub—a national resource designed to help policymakers, researchers, and advocates respond to the rapid expansion of sports betting and the growing evidence of related financial and health harms, particularly among young men.
As sports betting has become more accessible, policymakers face urgent questions about consumer protection, advertising, public health impacts, and regulatory oversight. Yet critical gaps remain in policy analysis and public awareness. AIBM’s Sports Betting Policy Hub will fill those gaps by providing authoritative, timely information and by connecting key stakeholders working toward sensible regulation that reduces social harms.
“Smart regulation depends on clear facts, credible analysis, and strong networks of leaders who can turn evidence into action,” said David Sasaki, Director of AIBM’s Boys & Men Online program. “This hub will strengthen the ecosystem by connecting policymakers, researchers, and advocates with the information and analysis they need to respond to a fast-moving industry.”
Arnold Ventures, a philanthropy focused on evidence-based policy, is supporting the policy hub with a $2 million grant. “Our philanthropic mission is to pursue nonideological, evidence-based approaches to complex challenges, and sports betting is no exception,” said John Arnold, co-founder and co-chair of Arnold Ventures. “By building a stronger foundation of research and solutions, we can provide policymakers with the insights they need to regulate effectively while protecting individual freedoms.”
Blues, Circa Sports to send two fans to Vegas for each remaining home win (press release): “To celebrate its new partnership with the St. Louis Blues, sports betting venture Circa Sports will award two lucky winners a trip to Circa Resort & Casino in Las Vegas for all home game wins at Enterprise Center the rest of the 2025-26 regular season. Circa Sports launched in the state in December, with the St. Louis Blues marking one of the brand’s first major collaborations within the local community.”
“The St. Louis Blues are an important staple of Missouri sports, and we are excited to get to know their loyal fanbase,” said Derek Stevens, CEO of Circa Sports and Circa. “We want to bring our Las Vegas-born energy to their home games, so what better way than to bring them to Circa in downtown Las Vegas so they can experience it firsthand.”
Nevada Slot Machines Gradually Paying Out Less, Study Finds (Covers): “A study from the UNLV Center for Gaming Research found that slot machines in Las Vegas have been tighter for players over the last 20 years. … UNLV found that statewide slot holds averaged 6.55% in 2004 but reached 7.1% by 2025, meaning players are winning less than they did two decades ago. The Las Vegas Strip recorded the highest average hold at 7.5%, while Reno had the lowest at 5.21%.”
Las Vegas tourism industry continues to decline (The Center Square): “Nevada’s tourism numbers took a hit throughout most of 2025, dropping nearly 7.4% from 2024. Data from the Las Vegas Convention Visitors Authority report showed more than 35.4 million people visited Las Vegas for the first 11 months of 2025. It comes after the state had experienced several years of booming rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic slump.”
“Las Vegas is often a reflection of the broader U.S. economy,” LVCVA wrote to The Center Square. “Because we operate at high volume across every consumer segment, shifts in spending and behavior tend to surface here first.”
Light & Wonder’s Howard Glaser: ‘Transitional Year’ Ahead As Prediction Markets Advance With ‘No Barricades’ (Casino Reports): “Glaser serves as global head of government affairs and legislative counsel at Nevada-based gaming supplier Light & Wonder. In this wide-ranging interview, Glaser discussed his company’s view of the legislative landscape for this year, as well as some of the controversial platforms and products that have dominated much of the industry’s attention and energies. Namely, prediction markets.”
Oklahoma Eyes Limited Wagering Amid Stalled Sports Betting Talks (Legal Sports Report): “Sen. Micheal Bergstrom prefiled a proposal, SB 2081, that would allow charitable and private events to offer certain wagering events under state-set conditions. The measure stands out as Oklahoma remains one of just 11 states without some form of legalized sports betting. It comes as the broader OK sports betting debate remains defined by a power struggle between Gov. Kevin Stitt, tribal leaders and state lawmakers over market structure. That stalemate shaped last year’s legislative discussions and continues to hang over the upcoming session.”
TheLotter Suspends Operations in New York as Part of Its Long-Term Expansion Strategy (press release): TheLotter US announced today that it will suspend its operations in New York, as the company continues to streamline its activities and focus on expanding services across other U.S. states as part of its long-term growth strategy.
TheLotter will continue to offer lottery courier services in Arizona, Oregon, and Minnesota, while further strengthening its presence in these markets and preparing for additional state launches.
After being awarded a license by the New York Gaming Commission and launching in New York last year, Jessica Griggs, TheLotter US Head of Marketing, said this “difficult decision” will enable the company to better allocate resources and support its long-term nationwide expansion strategy.
“While we are proud to have served players in New York, this strategic shift enables us to focus on markets where we can grow more efficiently and deliver the best possible experience,” Griggs added. “By concentrating our efforts, we’re positioning ourselves for sustainable expansion across the country.”