The Takeaway: The 'Parent Test' For Prediction Markets
Roundup: NFL's Goodell says league won't get involved in prediction markets right now; Outlier raises $11M.
Every Thursday in The Takeaway, The Closing Line provides commentary on trends and news in the gambling industry.
I think a lot about parenting. My wife and I had our daughter (now six years old) late in life. Becoming a parent in your 40s arguably gives you a lot more perspective on and preparation for raising a kid, but it doesn’t make it any easier.
My main goal in life is not to mess her up. At the end of the day, no one is going to remember that I covered sports betting and prediction markets, but my daughter will hopefully go out into the world and do great things.
Why am I telling you all of this? Well, I’ll be honest: I didn’t necessarily love being in the gambling industry. Three years ago, I was an executive at a gambling affiliate marketing company, and I was so miserable I quit without having any idea about what I would do next.
After I left, I was actively trying to find a job doing anything else. In my 20s, I played a lot of poker and did poker content, and after decades of this, part of me just wanted to be done with gambling.
Eventually, I realized the gambling industry is where I belong, and that I am passionate about writing about gambling. That you’re reading this newsletter and that I have a growing media/consulting business is some luck, and some skill.
Which gets us back to gambling and parenting. My daughter is old enough to know that I write newsletters; sometimes I am writing one while we have breakfast before I walk her to school. She also likes to steal my laptop and write stories on a Google Doc; God help her if she follows me into writing.
She doesn’t know what I write about, but it’s probably about time that I have that conversation. She knows mom works at the museum in our little Oregon town, but she’s kind of vague on the details of what I do.
Know the Risks
Randy and Anita discuss the common risks associated with sports betting and other forms of gambling that parents and other trusted adults should understand. In this clip, they talk about the heightened risk of problematic gambling after early exposure, and the reality that young people may not grasp the financial impacts of gambling.
Trusted Voices is designed to equip adults, including parents and coaches, with tools and resources to talk to young people about gambling, including information on warning signs and risks.
So that realization makes me think about what I would tell her regarding what I do. It goes something like this (I am still working out the kinks):
I write newsletters about gambling. Gambling is when people take their money and try to win more money on things like card games and football, and lots of other things. People like to do it for fun, but lots of times, people lose money gambling. And you definitely shouldn’t gamble, at least not until you’re a lot older.
I don’t know if that’s good or terrible, but it’s what I’ve got in my head.
I am not going to have a talk with her about prediction markets; that’s way too in-the-weeds for a kindergartner. But again, it makes me think: What would I tell her if I was working in prediction markets, and had to explain to her what I was working on?
I don’t think my answer would be drastically different.
I get that people involved in prediction markets have to say this is not gambling in public. Some of them believe that in earnest, and some of them don’t.
You get some of this dynamic in this excellent piece by Sportico with some quotes from Fanatics Betting CEO Matt King:
“If you think about the regulatory context that you sit under with the futures, I think ‘trade’ is the proper vernacular, and so that’s kind of how we refer to it.”
So not gambling?
“I view this as trading,” King said.
I mean, we all know Matt knows this is gambling/betting. (Fanatics Markets, to its credit, does have a “Responsible Risk Management” section on its top-level navigation.) But he and others have to go around play-acting both publicly and sometimes privately saying this is not gambling, whether they believe it or not.
This is the very dumbest part of the rise of prediction markets, at least in my book: That it feels impossible to have an honest conversation about what’s actually going on at these sites and apps. We can’t separate legal arguments from common sense.
Ninety percent of trading volume at Kalshi is on sports since the start of football season. I don’t care who your counterparty is, or that Kalshi is not the house. That’s still just betting, whether it’s against another person or a sophisticated market maker. You can “trade” parlays, for God’s sake. If you’re not willing to admit that parlays are gambling, I think you have a problem.
So we’ve finally gotten to the subject line of this newsletter… thanks for sticking with me. What would you tell your kids about prediction markets, if you had to have a conversation about it? (If you don’t have a kid, what would you tell your parents, or your god, or someone to whom you would never want to lie?)
If you’re telling them that what’s happening at prediction markets isn’t betting in any way, shape or form, I’d argue that you’re lying to them.
You can also believe that prediction markets can and will serve an important role in society… I actually agree! But that still comes with the uncomfortable idea that some rather large cohort of people are still gambling at prediction markets.
Anyway, take my parenting advice, or not. For the record, I feel a little bad about lying to my daughter about Santa Claus (That’s eased a bit by me volunteering to be Santa Claus every year and seeing how stoked kids are to meet Santa. They also sometimes cry.)
But I’m not going to lie to her about gambling.
The Job Corner
Here’s my reverse job board for individuals seeking employment in the gaming industry. If you want to be included as seeking employment, fill out this form!
Want to advertise a role you need to hire? Just reply to this newsletter (if you’re reading it via email) or reach out to dustin@closinglineconsulting.com.
Ifrah Law has been at the center of advancing iGaming in the U.S., shaping groundbreaking legislation, leading precedent-setting cases, and guiding clients that span the iGaming ecosystem through every phase of their business journey. Learn more at IfrahLaw.com.
Gambling news roundup
NFL Commissioner On Prediction Markets: ‘That’s Not Something We’re About To Enter Into’ (The Event Horizon): The NFL isn’t ready to dive into prediction markets, Commissioner Roger Goodell said Wednesday.
Goodell spoke about prediction markets at the Genius Sports Investor Day alongside CEO Mark Locke. The NFL is a partner of and investor in Genius, which is a sports data provider. Here’s the key bit:
“On the predictive markets… for us, that’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out, both from a regulatory standpoint … There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now. We’d like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but a lot of things we’re willing to say, we’re gonna let things play out, we’re gonna decide: Is this something we want to do? The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk the brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it.”
There’s more in my roundup on the Fanatics prediction market launch as well, and here’s more from Steve Ruddock’s Straight to the Point:
Also on Thursday, CNBC and Kalshi announced an exclusive partnership; more here.
James Harden Joins MyPrize Sweepstakes Casino Site As Content Creator (Casino Reports): “The scene opens with James Harden sitting on the bench in what looks very much like an NBA arena, wearing a uniform resembling that of his actual team. His customary ‘1’ adorns the white jersey, but the Los Angeles Clippers logo has been replaced with ‘MyPrize,’ the social/sweepstakes casino platform that the 11-time NBA all-star officially partnered with Thursday as a ‘Premier Creator.’”
“Bearded and braided, he taps away on a smartphone, interacting with fans, and playing the Miami-based company’s collection of multiplayer casino-style games. Eventually transformed into a cartoon version of himself gallivanting through fantastical casinos with a troop of followers, his voiceover encourages followers to come along.”
“Some people never roll the dice in their life,” he says in the promotional video. “Some people don’t know what fun looks like. Some people actually like the sidelines. Us, we start trouble. We say ‘yes’ to the mess.”
💡My take: Imagine waking up from a coma and reading this sentence “NBA star James Harden is working with a sweepstakes casino that will also offer prediction markets and appeared in an ad as an AI representation.” Also, I wonder what the NBA thinks of this?
Florida bill seeks to ban all non-Seminole gaming in 2026 (SBC Americas): “Florida lawmakers are again trying to criminalize all internet gambling and sports betting that is not offered exclusively by the Seminole Tribe. Rep. Berny Jacques’ House Bill 591 would make operating, conducting or promoting internet gambling a third-degree felony, with a carve-out for gaming activities conducted under the Seminole’s state tribal gaming compact. Jacques’ legislation defines internet gambling as any game in which ‘money or other thing of value is awarded based on chance, regardless of any application of skill … and simulates casino-style gaming, including, but not limited to, slot machines, video poker and table games.’”
From Social Gaming Leadership Alliance (SGLA) Executive Director Jeff Duncan: “We strongly disagree with the categorization that Social Plus games that utilize sweepstakes promotions have anything in common with illegal offshore gambling operations. HB 591 laudably seeks to stop illegal gambling from taking place in the state of Florida but fails to account for how lawful promotional sweepstakes operate in Florida. SGLA partner companies operate fully within Florida’s sweepstakes, consumer protection, banking and financial transactions laws, and are committed to further regulations to ensure that Social Plus games remain a safe outlet for the millions of Florida adults age 21 and over seeking casual entertainment. We look forward to continuing our constructive relationship with Florida’s legislators and remain committed to ensuring consumers have access to legal, and compliant entertainment in the Sunshine State.”
New York Sweeps Casino Ban Bill Reaches Gov. Hochul’s Desk With Dec. 31 Deadline (Sweepsy): “We have officially reached decision time for the future of sweepstakes casinos in New York. After passing the New York Senate and Assembly earlier this year, Senate Bill 5935, which would outlaw online sweeps casinos in the state, has made its way to the desk of Gov. Kathy Hochul.”
Outlier Raises $11M for Sports Betting Tech (press release): Outlier, a fast-growing sports betting technology company building its product and engineering teams in New Orleans, has announced the close of a $10.7 million Series A funding round. The round includes $5.7 million in equity financing led by Discerning Capital and an additional $5 million in dedicated user acquisition financing arranged to accelerate subscriber growth. The investment marks a significant milestone as Outlier scales its data-driven analytics platform and expands its subscriber base.
The Series A will accelerate Outlier’s next phase of growth as it brings new products to market, enhances its user experience, and deepens its presence in the rapidly expanding sports betting sector. Outlier has earned national attention as the market-leading sports betting research tool, with tens of thousands of paying subscribers and more than 14,000 five-star reviews on the App Store. The platform gives bettors intuitive access to real-time data, historical performance trends, and odds from major sportsbooks, empowering users to make more informed decisions in a fast-moving industry.
“Our focus has always been delivering tools that let customers make more sophisticated, data-backed decisions in their betting journeys, said Luis Lafer-Sousa, CTO // Co-Founder of Outlier. “With this raise, we’re advancing the underlying models, real-time analytics, and predictive systems that power our platform, while expanding the breadth of our product line to meet new demands in a rapidly evolving space. We’ve been customer-focused from day one, and we’re doubling down on building technology that meaningfully improves the way our users understand and act on sports and market data.”
NCPG Annual Gift Responsibly Campaign Now at Its Highest Level of Participation, Bolstered By “Too Young to Bet” (press release): The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) today announced a record-high level of participation in its annual Gift Responsibly Campaign, surpassing the previous year’s participation by over 30%.
The Gift Responsibly Campaign works to educate communities about the dangers of gifting lottery tickets to children and raises awareness about the risks of youth gambling. In 2025, NCPG added the “Too Young to Bet” campaign option to address other forms of gambling that children may be exposed to, such as online gambling.
Research supports that the earlier a child is exposed to or participates in gambling, the more likely they are to develop a gambling problem later in life. Gambling exposure can occur in a variety of ways, such as when a child receives a lottery ticket as a gift or participates in gambling activities with a parent or family member. This exposure is often facilitated by an adult who is likely unaware of the associated risks.
Throughout November and December, participating organizations will work to educate their local communities about the dangers of underage gambling. The campaign offers a variety of levels for organizations to participate in an increasing volume of campaign activities during the holiday season. Participant activities include, but are not limited to, public service announcements, social media messaging, digital advertising, in-store signage, retailer training, and other activities.
This year’s participation in the Gift Responsibly Campaign has soared to 67 Lotteries, 165 Community Partners, and 2 Non-Lottery Gambling Operators: Bally’s & PrizePicks, indicating the relevancy and applicability of Too Young to Bet to the core Gift Responsibly. …
“Young people are increasingly exposed to gambling long before they’re ready to understand the risks. Through the Gift Responsibly and Too Young to Bet campaigns, we’re equipping parents and educators with information about the importance of keeping gambling out of kids’ hands,” said Derek Longmeier, NCPG Board President. “This year’s record-breaking participation from lotteries, gambling operators, and community organizations around the world shows just how deeply this message resonates. Building strong awareness today helps safeguard the well-being of future generations.”
MGCB Issues 12 Cease-and-Desist Letters to Offshore Gambling Operators Illegally Targeting Michigan Residents (press release): The Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) has issued 12 cease-and-desist letters to offshore gambling operators unlawfully offering online gaming and sports betting to Michigan residents. These actions reflect the agency’s unwavering commitment to protecting consumers and upholding the integrity of the state’s regulated gaming environment.
The letters were sent to the operators of 31 Bets Casino, Betnuvo, BetPhoenix, Booty.bet, Jackpotter, Kings Chance Casino, Mybitcoin Casino, Starbets, The Virtual Casino, This Is Vegas, Vegas Strip Casino, and xWin90 after MGCB investigations determined they were offering illegal online casino-style games or sports betting in violation of state law.
“Illegal online gambling sites operate without oversight, putting players at risk and undermining Michigan’s secure, regulated marketplace,” said MGCB Executive Director Henry Williams. “We will continue to take relentless, decisive action to prevent unlicensed operators from targeting Michigan residents and ensure that all gaming is conducted lawfully and responsibly.”
Massachusetts Gaming Commission Fines Fanatics Betting and Gaming $20k (Sports Betting Dime): “The Massachusetts Gaming Commission has fined Fanatics Betting and Gaming $20,000 for accepting prohibited bets on a Massachusetts collegiate football team. The commission voted 4-1 to levy the fine against Fanatics Betting and Gaming for incorrectly accepting bets on prohibited events. Commissioner Eileen O’Brien cast the lone dissenting vote, noting that for a third similar offense, she supported a heftier fine for the sports betting operator.”
“As a general matter, I’m not satisfied with the fine. I think only going up $5,000 each time they do this is not much of a deterrent on the operator,” she said.
NJ senator says new NYC casinos increase need for slots at Meadowlands (SBC Americas): “A New Jersey senator who wants slots gambling added to horse racetracks in the state said this week that New York City’s upcoming new casinos make the Garden State’s need greater than ever. Sen. Joe Pennacchio has advocated in the past for slots at Meadowlands Racetrack in East Rutherford, which would expand casino-style gambling beyond Atlantic City to the Meadowlands complex across the Hudson River from NYC. In a statement this week, Pennacchio said that greater expansion of New York casino gambling threatens New Jersey’s existing gambling revenues.”
Why New York casino finalists are still far from sure things after key board approval (iGB): “Just because the New York Gaming Facility Location Board (GFLB) advanced all three downstate casino finalists Monday does not mean each will receive a licence. In fact, the 30-page rationale the board released proved far more critical of the bids than the unanimous approvals would indicate.”
Tourism committee recommends legalized mobile sports betting (Center Square): “A committee studying Georgia tourism added a recommendation to legalize mobile sports betting to its final report released Monday. The Senate Study Committee on Making Georgia the No. 1 State for Tourism did not discuss the recommendation, which was added at the last minute, Chairman Drew Echols, R-Gainesville, told TCS in an email.”
