ESPN Bet App Downloads =/= Guaranteed Success
The shiny new toy to talk and write about in sports betting will remain ESPN Bet for the foreseeable future. There seems to be a lot more buzz about ESPN than recently launched Fanatics Sportsbook, likely because of the weight of the ESPN brand in the sports space and the amount of money Penn Entertainment committed to the venture after cutting ties with Barstool Sports.
What do we know so far? There have been a lot of downloads:
On top of the download numbers, there has been a lot of breathless analysis and virtual ink declaring what a huge success this has been. And I am not here to tell you it’s not a success! Just that there’s a ton of noise in this data, especially vis a vis other sports betting app downloads. (I apologize if some of this is obvious to many of you, but it’s all still worth saying):
Barstool Sportsbook users who wanted to migrate to ESPN Bet had to download the app. We don’t have much idea (yet) of how well those previous users converted, but it’s more than a million potential users.
There is no real comp for ESPN Bet entering the US sports betting market. It was 1. a major new app and 2. available at the same time in 17 states. That confluence of events had never happened before. Let’s remember that DraftKings, FanDuel and others have been at this for more than five years in some cases, and then only a state at a time. There’s really no way they would have ever gotten a critical mass of users at one time outside of a state launch. If ESPN Bet hadn’t set a record among sports betting apps, that would have been concerning.
An “app download” is not a “depositing bettor.” I have to imagine the number of looky-loos for the ESPN Bet app was pretty high in the early days; after all, if you were in the ESPN app you likely got more than one splash ad showing you the sportsbook and the bonus offer. Yes, awareness and the downloads are a good start, but there are still steps before you’re a customer contributing to ESPN Bet’s coffers.
As I write about this, ESPN Bet is out of the top 50 in App Store downloads but still in the top 100, which is probably more interesting than all the downloads right after launch. That could at least indicate some staying power and new acquisition beyond what one might expect.
The first truly meaningful data we’ll see about ESPN comes when the first November state revenue reports start dropping. That’s when we’ll see handle and revenue by operator. That data can start to show us:
If ESPN Bet has already surpassed the floor set by Barstool Sportsbook.
If it has an opportunity to meaningfully grow the market.
If it is potentially eating into other sportsbooks’ marketshare.
How much promotional vs. actual spend is going on.
Anyway, the downloads were great, but despite the huge numbers probably in the range of what we should have expected. There’s just no guarantee that those downloads mean ESPN Bet is destined to be a success. More meaningful data and the decisions ahead for Penn/ESPN will tell that story in the coming months and years.
And after these initial numbers, there is plenty of potential for upside. The integration of betting content into ESPN’s app and site really hasn’t scratched the surface yet. How much ESPN leans into these efforts will likely play a huge role in the future of ESPN Bet.
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