The Early Line: Polymarket Is Coming Back To The US
The international prediction market platform just bought the CFTC-licensed exchange QCEX for $112 million.
The Early Line offers a look at the top stories heading into the week, along with some analysis.
Polymarket Acquires CFTC-Licensed Exchange and Clearinghouse QCEX for $112 Million (press release): “Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, today announced that it has closed an acquisition of the holding company of a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed derivatives exchange (QCX, LLC) and clearinghouse (QC Clearing LLC) (collectively "QCEX") for $112 million. The transaction marks a significant step toward expanding access to Polymarket's category-defining platform in the United States, enabling more users than ever to trade prediction market contracts with regulatory clarity and confidence.”
"Polymarket is the largest prediction market globally and has become synonymous with understanding the probability of current events," said Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket. "Demand is greater than ever — not just in user growth and trading volume, but in how mainstream audiences are turning to Polymarket to separate signal from noise, bias, and speculation. Now, with the acquisition of QCEX, we are laying the foundation to bring Polymarket home — re-entering the US as a fully regulated and compliant platform that will allow Americans to trade their opinions."
"When we began the process to obtain our DCM & DCO licenses over 4 years ago, the prediction market was in its infancy. But we have long believed in its potential to change the way people access and understand information and express their views on that information," said Sergei Dobrovolskii, Founder of QCEX. "Shayne has built a cultural phenomenon in Polymarket. I am excited to bring our companies together and leverage our licenses, technology, and expertise in the retail trading sector to help Polymarket reach its full potential."
“Polymarket has continued to build significant momentum as the world's largest prediction market and a trusted source of real-time information. In the first half of 2025 alone, users have already made about $6 billion in predictions on the platform. Most recently, Polymarket announced an official partnership with 𝕏, further solidifying its position at the intersection of politics, markets, and culture.”
“The acquisition of the QCEX entities paves the way for U.S. users to access Polymarket in the near future within a fully regulated, U.S.-compliant framework.”
Reading the line: It doesn’t get much bigger than this in terms of gambling news. Polymarket had left the US in 2022 under an agreement with the CFTC for offering binary options illegally, although it’s clear some amount of Americans use the site anyway. The move comes just after an investigation of Polymarket by the Department of Justice reportedly came to a close.
Polymarket is already significantly larger than Kalshi by trading volume, and entering the U.S. as a legal prediction market should further boost its growth. Kalshi has been growing since the November elections on the heels of launching sports betting and because it had the prediction markets space mostly to itself. (Yes, there are other PMs but they have offered far fewer markets on a narrower range of topics.) You might be able to spin this as a tailwind for all prediction markets moving forward, but Polymarket’s entrance is more likely to be disruptive for Kalshi. At the end of the day, it looks like Kalshi ended up paving the way for Polymarket to offer sports betting in the US — as long as Kalshi keeps winning in court. It’s also of course slightly ironic that Kalshi is the one paying the legal bills to fight state-level pushback on prediction markets as Polymarket prepares to enter the US again.
QCEX received CFTC approval less than two weeks ago, signaling how quickly things are moving. Polymarket teased that US users would be able to access Polymarket in the “near future.” It’s not clear how quickly they are implying, but if it’s possible, Polymarket would like to be live for the football season this fall. There is already a waitlist.
More thoughts to come on my other newsletter, The Event Horizon.
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Dave Portnoy confirms Barstool partnership with Fox Sports (Awful Announcing): “It’s not just ‘rumors’ anymore. It’s official, Dave Portnoy has confirmed a massive new partnership between Barstool Sports and Fox Sports. Funhouse teased the news, Ryan Glasspiegel of Front Office Sports first reported it, Andrew Marchand of The Athletic later confirmed it, and now Portnoy has formally announced it with an emergency press conference. Dave Portnoy is joining Big Noon Kickoff in a ‘wide ranging’ partnership between Barstool Sports and Fox Sports.”
Reading the line: There’s no immediate gambling angle here beyond the history of Barstool being a sportsbook until Penn Entertainment sold it back to Portnoy for $1. And that Fox Sports is a competitor of ESPN, which is now the sports betting brand of Penn. Given that Barstool is still capable of pulling a deal like this and ESPN Bet is still going nowhere in the US market, it’s all interesting looking back at how things went in US sports betting.
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More gambling news
CFTC pick to get vote today: The Senate Agriculture Committee is slated to vote on the confirmation of the nominee to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Brian Quintenz, today.
Democrat on Bipartisan Push to Undo Part of 'Big Beautiful Bill' (Newsweek): Representative Dina Titus, a Nevada Democrat, has introduced legislation that would restore the 100 percent deduction for gambling losses that Senate Republicans reduced to 90 percent late in the passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB). Titus spoke with Newsweek about her Fair Accounting for Income Realized from Betting Earnings Taxation (FAIR BET) Act, which she says so far has garnered "10 times the response" from constituents in her state and beyond compared to other aspects of the OBBB.
Oregon Lottery proposing regulating couriers, banning cross-border sales (SBC Americas): “The Oregon Lottery has proposed regulating retailers who work with a lotto courier to sell tickets, as well as banning out-of-state sales. In a revised proposal submitted on July 14, the Lottery suggested that it should adopt and amend rules to address ‘significant legal and integrity concerns associated with courier sales,’ which it said have been raised by industry stakeholders, media outlets and domestic and international lottery organizations.”
Wazdan brings online slot content to bet365 players in New Jersey (SBC Americas): “Wazdan is further solidifying its footprint in New Jersey through its pact with bet365. The iGaming developer announced on Monday the launch of slot content in New Jersey on bet365’s online casino platform. Wazdan is offering its entire portfolio of slot games, including its recently released 36 Coins Grand Gold Edition title. The company is also providing bet365 users in New Jersey with access to in-game features including jackpots.
“Our launch in New Jersey marks another major milestone in a state that shows rich demand for captivating iGaming content,” said Wazdan North and Latin America Head of Account Management Izabela Słodkowska-Popiel. “We’re excited about the road ahead and look forward to strengthening our global collaboration with bet365 in both existing and emerging jurisdictions, as we continue to offer premium gaming experiences.”
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