The one sign that prediction markets are hot right now is that they are making people mad online. Polymarket is allowing users to trade on outcomes related to the ongoing California fires.
I understand the general ickiness of betting on natural disasters. But as someone who lives in a very hurricane-ravaged area near New Orleans, one of the huge promises of prediction markets is the ability to use them as a form of reinsurance. If I know that my business might close for weeks, or God forbid I lose my home, I can reassess my risk and buy more "coverage" in these markets. I think this "betting" on natural disaster striking was always meant to be more of a feature than a bug, though it has not matured to the point where I would use it for that yet.
I am a fuddy duddy to some extent, but I can also see some value in doing something like this right. But it needs to be more thought than “it’s a Tuesday and someone at Polymarket decided to throw up some markets on fires.”
I understand the general ickiness of betting on natural disasters. But as someone who lives in a very hurricane-ravaged area near New Orleans, one of the huge promises of prediction markets is the ability to use them as a form of reinsurance. If I know that my business might close for weeks, or God forbid I lose my home, I can reassess my risk and buy more "coverage" in these markets. I think this "betting" on natural disaster striking was always meant to be more of a feature than a bug, though it has not matured to the point where I would use it for that yet.
I am a fuddy duddy to some extent, but I can also see some value in doing something like this right. But it needs to be more thought than “it’s a Tuesday and someone at Polymarket decided to throw up some markets on fires.”