Slot machines are negative-sum, mindless entertainment.
Prediction markets may be gambling in the commonsense dictionary sense of the word (legalisms aside), and they may be zero-sum in the narrow sense of monetary transfers, but they have a positive externality (signal).
So it's not crazy to say prediction markets should be treated differently than, say, casinos.
I am not a lawyer and I doubt existing laws take these distinctions into account -- but perhaps they should.
I am fine with casinos and prediction markets being treated differently. I think to pretend it’s not gambling is my main problem moving forward. Most forms of gambling have some element of skill (outside of slots and roulette)…although there are advantage players in slots even. The regulatory/legal landscape requires things to be classified as gambling or not, which is a lot of the problem.
Love the Kalshi analysis ... and the spot-on refutation of the "investing is gambling" notion ... and the open discussion about where the gambling line should be drawn.
Puzzled by the idea that legal sports betting has nothing to do with $5,000 bets on youth games and related crime. The billions of dollars spent by OSB operators to glorify sports betting have gone a long way toward creating that world, have they not?
Don’t think this is a terribly new phenomenon…check out the movie All Square, which was released in 2018. I would guess there is a decent amount of this in the world, it just doesn’t always escalate to a story like this one.
Anyway, legal sportsbooks deserve blame for some things, but I don’t think awful people taking bets on youth sports is one of them.
There's gambling, and then there's gambling.
Slot machines are negative-sum, mindless entertainment.
Prediction markets may be gambling in the commonsense dictionary sense of the word (legalisms aside), and they may be zero-sum in the narrow sense of monetary transfers, but they have a positive externality (signal).
So it's not crazy to say prediction markets should be treated differently than, say, casinos.
I am not a lawyer and I doubt existing laws take these distinctions into account -- but perhaps they should.
I am fine with casinos and prediction markets being treated differently. I think to pretend it’s not gambling is my main problem moving forward. Most forms of gambling have some element of skill (outside of slots and roulette)…although there are advantage players in slots even. The regulatory/legal landscape requires things to be classified as gambling or not, which is a lot of the problem.
Love the Kalshi analysis ... and the spot-on refutation of the "investing is gambling" notion ... and the open discussion about where the gambling line should be drawn.
Puzzled by the idea that legal sports betting has nothing to do with $5,000 bets on youth games and related crime. The billions of dollars spent by OSB operators to glorify sports betting have gone a long way toward creating that world, have they not?
Don’t think this is a terribly new phenomenon…check out the movie All Square, which was released in 2018. I would guess there is a decent amount of this in the world, it just doesn’t always escalate to a story like this one.
Anyway, legal sportsbooks deserve blame for some things, but I don’t think awful people taking bets on youth sports is one of them.